NTX Celtic FC NTX
ECNL Regional League Girls · North Texas GU15 · 22 teams · NTX Celtic FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 31, 11:40 AM
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.2 for, 1.8 against · 0.97 expected points)
| Season so far | NTX Celtic FC NTX | Sting Black NTX |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 8th | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-2-1 | 5-2-0 |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 2.43 |
| Goals for / game | 1.7 | 3.9 |
| Goals against / game | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 3 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L W W W D | W W D W W |
| Biggest win | 5–1 at Kernow Storm FC NTX | 7–0 at DKSC WHITE NTX |
| Worst loss | 0–2 vs FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.56 | +1.42 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.07 | -1.21 |
Common opponents: SOLAR BLUE NTX — we 2–1; they 3–2. FC Dallas Youth Red NTX — we 0–0; they 1–1. DKSC WHITE NTX — we 3–1; they 7–0. Kernow Storm FC NTX — we 5–1; they 7–2.
Game plan
-
Respect their attack
Sting Black NTX score 3.9/game — well above the league's 2.0.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–0 at FC Dallas Youth Red NTX, 0–2 vs FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 25%; a draw (23%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
-
Away game
Kickoff 11:40 AM at Dallas Soccer Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
-
What a win does
FC Dallas Youth Red NTX sit 7th on 2.00 PPG; we are on 2.00.A point moves us above FC Dallas Youth Red NTX on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Sting Black NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (NTX Celtic FC NTX – Sting Black NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.88 PPG |
8th— holds | 9th▼ down 1 | 9th▼ down 1 |
| Win 2.13 PPG |
7th▲ up 1 | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
| Draw 1.88 PPG |
8th— holds | 9th▼ down 1 | 9th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.75 PPG |
10th▼ down 2 | 11th▼ down 3 | 11th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 7th if every rival drops points, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd 1%
- 4th 1%
- 5th 3%
- 6th 5%
- 7th 9%
- 8th 14%
- 9th 16%
- 10th 15%
- 11th 14%
- 12th 12%
- 13th 8%
- 14th 3%
- 15th <1%
- 16th
- 17th
- 18th
- 19th
- 20th
- 21st
- 22nd
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.53 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX | 3.00 (+1.00) | 1st (2.79) | 31 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | FRISCO FUSION NTX | 2.57 (+0.57) | 2nd (2.28) | 25 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 3 | Sting Brave NTX | 2.57 (+0.57) | 6th (2.17) | 25 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 4 | Nido Dallas NTX | 2.50 (+0.50) | 3rd (2.25) | 24 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 5 | Sting Black NTX | 2.43 (+0.43) | 7th (2.00) | 23 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 6 | Sting WTX NTX | 2.25 (+0.25) | 5th (2.18) | 20 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 7 | FC Dallas Youth Red NTX | 2.00 (+0.00) | 4th (2.23) | A point next game |
How the results connect
23 chains · 11 teams
Paths of results that link NTX Celtic FC NTX to Sting Black NTX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
16 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.32 · 9th hardest of 22
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Jan 1 TBD no score posted |
Fever United FC NTX 16th · 2-0-6 · GD -21 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 74% |
2–0 | 2.36 | 2.05 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 31 11:40 AM |
Sting Black NTX 5th · 5-2-0 · GD +19 |
Away Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 25% |
1–1 | 0.97 | 1.93 | Upside |
| Thu Nov 5 08:15 PM |
SOLAR WHITE NTX 10th · 3-0-2 · GD +4 |
Home Railroad Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
0–0 | 1.47 | 1.88 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 03:20 PM |
Dallas Texans Red NTX 13th · 2-1-2 · GD +5 |
Away Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
1–1 | 1.35 | 1.83 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 07:00 PM |
Sting Brave NTX 3rd · 6-0-1 · GD +10 |
Home Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
0–1 | 1.13 | 1.77 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 07:00 PM |
Dallas Cosmos SC NTX 9th · 5-0-3 · GD +2 |
Home Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
1–1 | 1.67 | 1.77 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 08:00 AM |
SOLAR RED NTX 18th · 1-1-6 · GD -21 |
Away Dallas Soccer Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
2–0 | 2.46 | 1.82 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 18 08:00 AM |
Sting WTX NTX 6th · 6-0-2 · GD +26 |
Home Railroad Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
0–1 | 0.73 | 1.74 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 46 | 0 | +46 | 24 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -1.03 | +0.43 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at Sting WTX NTX · Sun Oct 25 vs Sting Brave NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs SOLAR RED NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | FRISCO FUSION NTX | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 18 | 2.57 | WWWWW | -0.20 | -0.51 | 63% | 4.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs Sting Brave NTX · Sat Oct 24 at FC Dallas Youth NTX · Sun Oct 25 vs FC Dallas Youth Red NTX See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Sting Brave NTX | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 3 | +10 | 18 | 2.57 | WLWWW | +0.33 | +0.36 | 41% | 5.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at Dallas Texans Red NTX · Mon Jan 1 at FRISCO FUSION NTX · Sat Oct 24 vs Fever United FC NTX See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Nido Dallas NTX | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 5 | +12 | 15 | 2.50 | WWWWW | -0.08 | -0.56 | 59% | 4.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs Sting Royal NTX · Mon Jan 1 at Dallas Texans Red NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs DKSC WHITE NTX See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Sting Black NTX | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 27 | 8 | +19 | 17 | 2.43 | WWDWW | -1.21 | +0.68 | 17% | 6.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at Dallas Cosmos SC NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs NTX Celtic FC NTX · Thu Nov 5 at Sting Brave NTX See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Sting WTX NTX | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 29 | 3 | +26 | 18 | 2.25 | LWWLW | -0.35 | +0.85 | 50% | 4.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs DKSC NTX · Sat Apr 3 vs SOLAR WHITE NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | FC Dallas Youth Red NTX | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 27 | 2 | +25 | 14 | 2.00 | DWWWW | -1.13 | -0.27 | 65% | 4.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sting Royal NTX · Sun Oct 25 at FRISCO FUSION NTX · Sun Nov 1 vs Nido Dallas NTX See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | NTX Celtic FC NTX | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 14 | 2.00 | DWWWL | +0.07 | +0.32 | 2% | 9.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at Fever United FC NTX · Sat Oct 31 at Sting Black NTX · Thu Nov 5 vs SOLAR WHITE NTX See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | Dallas Cosmos SC NTX | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 15 | 1.88 | WLLLW | +0.31 | +0.38 | 0% | 10.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs Sting Black NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs DKSC NTX · Sat Nov 7 at SOLAR WHITE NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | SOLAR WHITE NTX | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 9 | 1.80 | WWWLL | -0.42 | +0.05 | 1% | 10.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs SOLAR RED NTX · Mon Jan 1 vs NTX Celtic FC Green NTX · Sun Oct 25 at Dallas Texans Red NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | Sting Royal NTX | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 13 | 1.63 | LWLLW | -0.06 | -0.67 | 1% | 9.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at Nido Dallas NTX · Sat Oct 24 vs FC Dallas Youth Red NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs NTX Celtic FC Green NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | SOLAR BLUE NTX | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 10 | 1.43 | WWLDW | -0.25 | -0.43 | 1% | 9.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs FC Dallas Youth NTX · Sat Oct 24 at NTX Celtic FC Green NTX · Sat Oct 31 at Dallas Texans NTX See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 13 | Dallas Texans Red NTX | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 7 | 1.40 | LWWDL | -0.02 | +0.51 | 0% | 12.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs Sting Brave NTX · Mon Jan 1 vs Nido Dallas NTX · Sat Oct 24 at DKSC NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 14 | FC Dallas Youth White NTX | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 7 | 0.88 | WDWLL | +0.79 | -1.36 | 0% | 13.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at Dallas Texans NTX · Sat Oct 24 vs Kernow Storm FC NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs Sting Royal NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 15 | Dallas Texans NTX | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 6 | 0.86 | LLLWW | +0.15 | -0.55 | 0% | 14.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs FC Dallas Youth White NTX · Sat Oct 24 at DKSC WHITE NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs SOLAR BLUE NTX See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 16 | Fever United FC NTX | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 32 | -21 | 6 | 0.75 | LWLLL | +0.60 | +0.02 | 0% | 17.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs NTX Celtic FC NTX · Sat Oct 24 at Sting Brave NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs SOLAR RED NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 17 | DKSC NTX | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 4 | 0.57 | LLLDL | -0.46 | +1.00 | 0% | 18.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Dallas Texans Red NTX · Sat Oct 31 at Dallas Cosmos SC NTX · Sat Nov 7 at Sting WTX NTX See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 18 | SOLAR RED NTX | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 24 | -21 | 4 | 0.50 | WLDLL | +0.26 | +0.86 | 0% | 19.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at SOLAR WHITE NTX · Sat Oct 31 at Fever United FC NTX · Sat Nov 7 at FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 19 | FC Dallas Youth NTX | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 26 | -18 | 3 | 0.43 | LLLLL | +0.44 | -0.66 | 0% | 17.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at SOLAR BLUE NTX · Sat Oct 24 vs FRISCO FUSION NTX · Sun Nov 1 vs DKSC WHITE NTX See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 20 | Kernow Storm FC NTX | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 39 | -31 | 3 | 0.38 | LLLLL | +1.12 | -1.09 | 0% | 17.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs NTX Celtic FC Green NTX · Sat Oct 24 at FC Dallas Youth White NTX · Sun Nov 8 vs FC Dallas Youth NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 21 | NTX Celtic FC Green NTX | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 34 | -34 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.03 | -0.43 | 0% | 21.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at Kernow Storm FC NTX · Mon Jan 1 at SOLAR WHITE NTX · Sat Oct 24 vs SOLAR BLUE NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 22 | DKSC WHITE NTX | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 37 | -35 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.83 | -0.42 | 0% | 20.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Dallas Texans NTX · Sat Oct 31 at Nido Dallas NTX · Sun Nov 1 at FC Dallas Youth NTX See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.96 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.