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Sting Black NTX

ECNL Regional League Girls · North Texas GU15 · 22 teams · Sting Soccer Club (all teams)

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5th
5-2-0 record · 7 played
2.43 points per game
+19 goal diff · 27–8
WWDWWlast 5
18% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.7
-1.21 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 11:40 AM

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Sting Black NTX
5th · 2.43 PPG
vs
NTX Celtic FC NTX
8th · 2.00 PPG

Dallas Soccer Park, Field 7 ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.8 for, 1.2 against · 1.80 expected points)

Season so farSting Black NTXNTX Celtic FC NTX
Position5th8th
Record (W-D-L)5-2-04-2-1
Points per game2.432.00
Goals for / game3.91.7
Goals against / game1.10.9
Clean sheets32
Held scoreless02
Form (recent first)W W D W WL W W W D
Biggest win7–0 at DKSC WHITE NTX5–1 at Kernow Storm FC NTX
Worst loss—0–2 vs FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.42+0.56
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.21+0.07

Common opponents: FC Dallas Youth Red NTX — we 1–1; they 0–0. SOLAR BLUE NTX — we 3–2; they 2–1. DKSC WHITE NTX — we 7–0; they 3–1. Kernow Storm FC NTX — we 7–2; they 5–1.

Game plan

  • Hard to break down
    NTX Celtic FC NTX concede only 0.9/game with 2 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 52% / draw 23% / loss 25%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • What a win does
    Nido Dallas NTX sit 4th on 2.50 PPG; we are on 2.43.

    A win moves us above Nido Dallas NTX on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the NTX Celtic FC NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sting Black NTX – NTX Celtic FC NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 2.25 PPG
6th▼ down 1 5th— holds 6th▼ down 1
Win
2.50 PPG
4th▲ up 1 4th▲ up 1 5th— holds
Draw
2.25 PPG
6th▼ down 1 5th— holds 6th▼ down 1
Loss
2.13 PPG
6th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 2 7th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 5th even if every rival loses, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
18% top 4
82% below the top 4
6.7 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 3%
  3. 3rd 6%
  4. 4th 9%
  5. 5th 11%
  6. 6th 16%
  7. 7th 21%
  8. 8th 15%
  9. 9th 8%
  10. 10th 6%
  11. 11th 3%
  12. 12th 2%
  13. 13th 1%
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th
  19. 19th
  20. 20th
  21. 21st
  22. 22nd

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.73 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 3.00 (+0.57) 1st (2.79) 28 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 FRISCO FUSION NTX 2.57 (+0.14) 2nd (2.28) 22 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
3 Sting Brave NTX 2.57 (+0.14) 6th (2.17) 22 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
4 Nido Dallas NTX 2.50 (+0.07) 3rd (2.25) Win next game

How the results connect

23 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link Sting Black NTX to NTX Celtic FC NTX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

11 favour us
4 even
8 favour them
+0.2 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–2 1–2 1–1 0–0 7–2 1–5 7–0 1–3 0–9 2–0 0–3 1–0 0–2 1–1 3–1 5–0 0–3 0–1 1–0 0–3 0–7 Sting Black NTX 5th SOLAR BLUE NTX 12th FC Dallas Youth Red… 7th Kernow Storm FC NTX 20th DKSC WHITE NTX 22nd Fever United FC NTX 16th NTX Celtic FC Green… 21st FC Dallas Youth Blu… 1st Sting Royal NTX 11th DKSC NTX 17th NTX Celtic FC NTX 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

16 game days

1st 11th 22nd Aug 22 Sep 5 Sep 13 Sep 24 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.68 · 4th hardest of 22

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Mon Jan 1
TBD
no score posted
Dallas Cosmos SC NTX
9th · 5-0-3 · GD +2
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
2–1 1.80 2.35 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
11:40 AM
NTX Celtic FC NTX
8th · 4-2-1 · GD +6
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
1–1 1.80 2.29 Swing game
Thu Nov 5
06:30 PM
Sting Brave NTX
3rd · 6-0-1 · GD +10
Away
Railroad Park
●●●●○ Tough
30%
1–1 1.16 2.18 Upside
Sat Apr 3
01:30 PM
SOLAR RED NTX
18th · 1-1-6 · GD -21
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
90%
3–0 2.77 2.23 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
08:00 AM
FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX
1st · 8-0-0 · GD +46
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●● Very tough
9%
0–2 0.41 2.08 Upside
Sat Apr 17
08:00 AM
DKSC NTX
17th · 1-1-5 · GD -9
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
84%
3–0 2.63 2.12 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
09:50 AM
Sting WTX NTX
6th · 6-0-2 · GD +26
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–2 0.90 2.03 Upside
Sun Apr 25
11:40 AM
SOLAR WHITE NTX
10th · 3-0-2 · GD +4
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
1–1 1.57 2.00 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 8800 460+46 243.00 WWWWW -1.03 +0.43 100% 1.1
2 FRISCO FUSION NTX 7601 197+12 182.57 WWWWW -0.20 -0.51 62% 4.0
3 Sting Brave NTX 7601 133+10 182.57 WLWWW +0.33 +0.36 42% 5.1
4 Nido Dallas NTX 6501 175+12 152.50 WWWWW -0.08 -0.56 60% 4.1
5 Sting Black NTX 7520 278+19 172.43 WWDWW -1.21 +0.68 18% 6.7
6 Sting WTX NTX 8602 293+26 182.25 LWWLW -0.35 +0.85 49% 4.7
7 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 7421 272+25 142.00 DWWWW -1.13 -0.27 63% 4.1
8 NTX Celtic FC NTX 7421 126+6 142.00 DWWWL +0.07 +0.32 2% 9.5
9 Dallas Cosmos SC NTX 8503 1311+2 151.88 WLLLW +0.31 +0.38 1% 10.7
10 SOLAR WHITE NTX 5302 62+4 91.80 WWWLL -0.42 +0.05 1% 10.2
11 Sting Royal NTX 8413 1711+6 131.63 LWLLW -0.06 -0.67 1% 9.9
12 SOLAR BLUE NTX 7313 209+11 101.43 WWLDW -0.25 -0.43 1% 9.5
13 Dallas Texans Red NTX 5212 149+5 71.40 LWWDL -0.02 +0.51 0% 12.2
14 FC Dallas Youth White NTX 8215 814-6 70.88 WDWLL +0.79 -1.36 0% 13.6
15 Dallas Texans NTX 7205 716-9 60.86 LLLWW +0.15 -0.55 0% 14.9
16 Fever United FC NTX 8206 1132-21 60.75 LWLLL +0.60 +0.02 0% 17.3
17 DKSC NTX 7115 514-9 40.57 LLLDL -0.46 +1.00 0% 18.4
18 SOLAR RED NTX 8116 324-21 40.50 WLDLL +0.26 +0.86 0% 19.8
19 FC Dallas Youth NTX 7106 826-18 30.43 LLLLL +0.44 -0.66 0% 16.9
20 Kernow Storm FC NTX 8107 839-31 30.38 LLLLL +1.12 -1.09 0% 17.8
21 NTX Celtic FC Green NTX 5005 034-34 00.00 LLLLL +1.03 -0.43 0% 21.5
22 DKSC WHITE NTX 6006 237-35 00.00 LLLLL +0.83 -0.42 0% 20.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.96 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.