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FC Dallas Youth White NTX

ECNL Regional League Girls · North Texas GU15 · 22 teams · FC Dallas Youth (all teams)

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14th
2-1-5 record · 8 played
0.88 points per game
-6 goal diff · 8–14
WDWLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 13.6
+0.79 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 05:10 PM

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FC Dallas Youth White NTX
14th · 0.88 PPG
vs
Kernow Storm FC NTX
20th · 0.38 PPG

Dallas Soccer Park, Field 7 ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 3.0 for, 1.2 against · 2.35 expected points)

Season so farFC Dallas Youth White NTXKernow Storm FC NTX
Position14th20th
Record (W-D-L)2-1-51-0-7
Points per game0.880.38
Goals for / game1.01.0
Goals against / game1.84.9
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless34
Form (recent first)L L W D WL L L L L
Biggest win3–1 vs SOLAR RED NTX4–2 vs DKSC NTX
Worst loss0–3 at Sting WTX NTX0–12 at FC Dallas Youth Red NTX
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.34-2.50
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.79+1.12

Common opponents: FRISCO FUSION NTX — we 0–2; they 1–2.

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Kernow Storm FC NTX concede 4.9/game; worst result 0–12 at FC Dallas Youth Red NTX.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–1 at Dallas Cosmos SC NTX, 0–3 at Sting WTX NTX, 0–2 at FRISCO FUSION NTX.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 74% chance; likely score 2–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Kernow Storm FC NTX have lost 7 straight (form: LLLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Kernow Storm FC NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Dallas Youth White NTX – Kernow Storm FC NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.11 PPG		 14th— holds 15th▼ down 1 15th▼ down 1
Win
1.11 PPG		 14th— holds 15th▼ down 1 15th▼ down 1
Draw
0.89 PPG		 14th— holds 15th▼ down 1 16th▼ down 2
Loss
0.78 PPG		 15th▼ down 1 15th▼ down 1 17th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 13th if every rival drops points, and as low as 15th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
13.6 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th 1%
  11. 11th 5%
  12. 12th 9%
  13. 13th 25%
  14. 14th 40%
  15. 15th 15%
  16. 16th 3%
  17. 17th 1%
  18. 18th <1%
  19. 19th
  20. 20th
  21. 21st
  22. 22nd

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 1.87 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 3.00 (+2.12) 1st (2.79) 38 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 FRISCO FUSION NTX 2.57 (+1.69) 2nd (2.28) 32 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Sting Brave NTX 2.57 (+1.69) 6th (2.17) 32 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Nido Dallas NTX 2.50 (+1.62) 3rd (2.25) 31 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Sting Black NTX 2.43 (+1.55) 7th (2.00) 30 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6 Sting WTX NTX 2.25 (+1.37) 5th (2.18) 27 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
7 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 2.00 (+1.12) 4th (2.23) 23 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
8 NTX Celtic FC NTX 2.00 (+1.12) 8th (1.74) 23 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
9 Dallas Cosmos SC NTX 1.88 (+1.00) 12th (1.64) 22 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
10 SOLAR WHITE NTX 1.80 (+0.92) 11th (1.67) 20 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
11 Sting Royal NTX 1.63 (+0.75) 10th (1.69) 18 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
12 SOLAR BLUE NTX 1.43 (+0.55) 9th (1.71) 15 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
13 Dallas Texans Red NTX 1.40 (+0.52) 13th (1.42) 14 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection

How the results connect

14 chains · 14 teams

Paths of results that link FC Dallas Youth White NTX to Kernow Storm FC NTX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

7 favour us
3 even
4 favour them
+1.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–2 2–1 1–1 0–3 3–0 3–1 0–0 2–4 0–3 2–0 1–0 0–2 0–1 0–1 2–3 1–2 1–0 1–0 2–1 0–4 1–2 5–1 2–3 7–2 FC Dallas Youth Whi… 14th FRISCO FUSION NTX 2nd SOLAR BLUE NTX 12th SOLAR RED NTX 18th Sting WTX NTX 6th Dallas Cosmos SC NTX 9th Sting Brave NTX 3rd Dallas Texans Red N… 13th FC Dallas Youth Blu… 1st DKSC NTX 17th SOLAR WHITE NTX 10th NTX Celtic FC NTX 8th Sting Black NTX 5th Kernow Storm FC NTX 20th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

16 game days

1st 11th 22nd Aug 22 Sep 5 Sep 13 Sep 24 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -1.36 · 22nd hardest of 22

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Mon Jan 1
TBD
no score posted		 Dallas Texans NTX
15th · 2-0-5 · GD -9		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
40%		 1–1 1.46 0.94 Upside
Sat Oct 24
05:10 PM		 Kernow Storm FC NTX
20th · 1-0-7 · GD -31		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
74%		 2–1 2.35 1.08 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
08:00 AM		 Sting Royal NTX
11th · 4-1-3 · GD +6		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
26%		 1–1 1.02 1.08 Upside
Sun Nov 8
08:00 AM		 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX
7th · 4-2-1 · GD +25		 Away
Railroad Park 		●●●●● Very tough
5%		 0–2 0.26 1.01 Upside
Sat Apr 3
01:30 PM		 NTX Celtic FC Green NTX
21st · 0-0-5 · GD -34		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
83%		 3–0 2.59 1.13 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
03:20 PM		 FC Dallas Youth NTX
19th · 1-0-6 · GD -18		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
62%		 2–1 2.06 1.20 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
11:40 AM		 DKSC WHITE NTX
22nd · 0-0-6 · GD -35		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
79%		 3–0 2.50 1.28 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 8800 460+46 243.00 WWWWW -1.03 +0.43 100% 1.1
2 FRISCO FUSION NTX 7601 197+12 182.57 WWWWW -0.20 -0.51 63% 4.0
3 Sting Brave NTX 7601 133+10 182.57 WLWWW +0.33 +0.36 40% 5.1
4 Nido Dallas NTX 6501 175+12 152.50 WWWWW -0.08 -0.56 58% 4.2
5 Sting Black NTX 7520 278+19 172.43 WWDWW -1.21 +0.68 17% 6.7
6 Sting WTX NTX 8602 293+26 182.25 LWWLW -0.35 +0.85 50% 4.7
7 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 7421 272+25 142.00 DWWWW -1.13 -0.27 65% 4.0
8 NTX Celtic FC NTX 7421 126+6 142.00 DWWWL +0.07 +0.32 2% 9.5
9 Dallas Cosmos SC NTX 8503 1311+2 151.88 WLLLW +0.31 +0.38 0% 10.7
10 SOLAR WHITE NTX 5302 62+4 91.80 WWWLL -0.42 +0.05 1% 10.2
11 Sting Royal NTX 8413 1711+6 131.63 LWLLW -0.06 -0.67 1% 9.9
12 SOLAR BLUE NTX 7313 209+11 101.43 WWLDW -0.25 -0.43 1% 9.5
13 Dallas Texans Red NTX 5212 149+5 71.40 LWWDL -0.02 +0.51 0% 12.3
14 FC Dallas Youth White NTX 8215 814-6 70.88 WDWLL +0.79 -1.36 0% 13.6
15 Dallas Texans NTX 7205 716-9 60.86 LLLWW +0.15 -0.55 0% 14.9
16 Fever United FC NTX 8206 1132-21 60.75 LWLLL +0.60 +0.02 0% 17.3
17 DKSC NTX 7115 514-9 40.57 LLLDL -0.46 +1.00 0% 18.4
18 SOLAR RED NTX 8116 324-21 40.50 WLDLL +0.26 +0.86 0% 19.7
19 FC Dallas Youth NTX 7106 826-18 30.43 LLLLL +0.44 -0.66 0% 16.9
20 Kernow Storm FC NTX 8107 839-31 30.38 LLLLL +1.12 -1.09 0% 17.8
21 NTX Celtic FC Green NTX 5005 034-34 00.00 LLLLL +1.03 -0.43 0% 21.5
22 DKSC WHITE NTX 6006 237-35 00.00 LLLLL +0.83 -0.42 0% 20.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.96 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.