TableChase Clubs

North Coast FC BLUE

ECNL Regional League Girls · NorCal GU13 · 29 teams · North Coast Futbol Club (all teams)

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17th
1-3-2 record · 6 played
1.00 points per game
-2 goal diff · 6–8
LWDLDlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 13.8
+0.33 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 04:10 PM

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North Coast FC BLUE
17th · 1.00 PPG
at
SF United FC
21st · 0.71 PPG

Crocker Amazon soccer fields, Field 3 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–0 (expected goals 1.3 for, 0.9 against · 1.65 expected points)

Season so farNorth Coast FC BLUESF United FC
Position17th21st
Record (W-D-L)1-3-21-2-4
Points per game1.000.71
Goals for / game1.00.6
Goals against / game1.32.1
Clean sheets22
Held scoreless24
Form (recent first)D L D W LL L D L W
Biggest win3–0 vs Belmont United Soccer Club1–0 vs Stanford Strikers
Worst loss0–3 vs Burlingame SC0–5 at Elk Grove Soccer
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.17-0.86
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.33+0.92

Common opponents: Diablo Valley Futbol Club — we 1–1; they 2–2. Palo Alto SC — we 1–3; they 0–2.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    SF United FC average 0.6 goals/game (league avg 1.8); blanked in 4 of 7.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–0 at Livermore Fusion SC, 0–3 vs Burlingame SC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 45% / draw 29% / loss 26%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 04:10 PM at Crocker Amazon soccer fields.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Santa Cruz United FC sit 16th on 1.14 PPG; we are on 1.00.

    A point moves us above Santa Cruz United FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the SF United FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (North Coast FC BLUE – SF United FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 11 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.29 PPG
14th▲ up 3 15th▲ up 2 17th— holds
Win
1.29 PPG
14th▲ up 3 15th▲ up 2 17th— holds
Draw
1.00 PPG
17th— holds 17th— holds 20th▼ down 3
Loss
0.86 PPG
20th▼ down 3 19th▼ down 2 25th▼ down 8

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–0 win we finish as high as 13th if every rival drops points, and as low as 17th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
13.8 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th 2%
  9. 9th 4%
  10. 10th 7%
  11. 11th 11%
  12. 12th 14%
  13. 13th 14%
  14. 14th 12%
  15. 15th 11%
  16. 16th 8%
  17. 17th 6%
  18. 18th 5%
  19. 19th 3%
  20. 20th 2%
  21. 21st 2%
  22. 22nd 1%
  23. 23rd 1%
  24. 24th <1%
  25. 25th <1%
  26. 26th <1%
  27. 27th
  28. 28th
  29. 29th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.20 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Elk Grove Soccer 2.67 (+1.67) 2nd (2.58) 35 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Burlingame SC 2.67 (+1.67) 1st (2.67) 35 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Merced United 2.67 (+1.67) 6th (2.31) 35 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Walnut Creek Surf 2.57 (+1.57) 3rd (2.52) 33 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Palo Alto SC 2.57 (+1.57) 4th (2.49) 33 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6 Folsom Lake Surf 2.43 (+1.43) 5th (2.39) 31 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
7 Association FC 2.43 (+1.43) 7th (1.96) 31 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
8 Livermore Fusion SC 2.29 (+1.29) 8th (1.89) 29 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
9 San Francisco Elite Academy 2.00 (+1.00) 9th (1.73) 24 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
10 East County Revolution FC 1.71 (+0.71) 10th (1.71) 20 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
11 OV Toros FC 1.67 (+0.67) 11th (1.56) 20 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
12 Cal Magic 1.43 (+0.43) 12th (1.38) 16 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
13 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 1.29 (+0.29) 17th (1.12) 14 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection
14 Santa Clara Sporting 1.17 (+0.17) 15th (1.27) A point next game
15 Reno APEX Soccer Club ENCL RL 1.14 (+0.14) 14th (1.29) A point next game
16 Santa Cruz United FC 1.14 (+0.14) 18th (1.11) A point next game

How the results connect

10 chains · 12 teams

Paths of results that link North Coast FC BLUE to SF United FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
6 even
1 favour them
+0.7 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–3 2–0 1–1 2–2 1–1 1–3 3–1 3–0 0–6 3–0 2–0 0–4 0–3 3–3 5–0 2–1 0–1 5–0 0–0 North Coast FC BLUE 17th Palo Alto SC 5th Diablo Valley Futbo… 20th Solano Surf 25th Belmont United Socc… 23rd Burlingame SC 2nd Association FC 7th Walnut Creek Surf 4th Elk Grove Soccer 1st Stanford Strikers 22nd Eastshore Alliance … 19th SF United FC 21st

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 15th 29th Aug 15 Aug 23 Sep 20 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.70 · 29th hardest of 29

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Sep 27
TBD
no score posted
Valley Surf
28th · 0-1-3 · GD -11
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
1–0 2.15 1.16 Swing game
Sun Oct 25
04:10 PM
SF United FC
21st · 1-2-4 · GD -11
Away far trip
Crocker Amazon soccer fields
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
1–0 1.65 1.22 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
10:00 AM
West Coast Soccer -RL
29th · 0-0-7 · GD -40
Home
Petaluma Community Sports Fields
●○○○○ Favorable
91%
3–0 2.79 1.40 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
09:00 AM
Eastshore Alliance FC
19th · 1-3-2 · GD -5
Away far trip
El Cerrito High School
●●●●○ Tough
38%
1–0 1.43 1.40 Upside
Sun Apr 4
10:30 AM
Folsom Lake Surf
6th · 5-2-0 · GD +20
Away far trip
Econome Family Park
●●●●● Very tough
6%
0–2 0.35 1.31 Upside
Sat Apr 10
TBD
Los Gatos United Soccer Club
13th · 3-0-4 · GD -1
Away
●●●●○ Tough
36%
1–1 1.32 1.31 Upside
Sat Apr 24
02:00 PM
San Ramon FC
18th · 1-3-2 · GD -3
Away far trip
Rancho San Ramon Community Park
●●●●○ Tough
37%
1–0 1.42 1.32 Upside
Sat May 1
10:00 AM
Alameda Soccer Club Islanders
27th · 0-2-5 · GD -14
Home
Petaluma Community Sports Fields
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
1–0 2.05 1.37 Swing game
Sun May 2
TBD
San Francisco Elite Academy
9th · 3-1-1 · GD +5
Home
●●●●○ Tough
29%
0–1 1.14 1.35 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Elk Grove Soccer 6510 376+31 162.67 WWWDW +0.00 -0.16 83% 2.8
2 Burlingame SC 6510 254+21 162.67 WWDWW +0.06 -0.59 95% 2.0
3 Merced United 6510 244+20 162.67 WWWWW -0.22 +0.62 33% 5.1
4 Walnut Creek Surf 7601 222+20 182.57 WLWWW -0.10 -0.19 73% 3.4
5 Palo Alto SC 7601 245+19 182.57 WWWWL -0.55 -0.36 67% 3.8
6 Folsom Lake Surf 7520 222+20 172.43 WDWWW -0.27 +0.12 47% 4.5
7 Association FC 7520 177+10 172.43 DWWWW -0.77 +0.39 2% 7.9
8 Livermore Fusion SC 7511 156+9 162.29 WDWWW -0.85 +0.25 1% 8.3
9 San Francisco Elite Academy 5311 94+5 102.00 DLWWW -0.96 +0.04 0% 9.9
10 East County Revolution FC 7331 1410+4 121.71 DWLWD -0.32 -0.28 0% 9.9
11 OV Toros FC 6312 1410+4 101.67 LWWWL -0.07 +0.24 0% 11.4
12 Cal Magic 7313 1213-1 101.43 LWLDL +0.18 +0.26 0% 13.6
13 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 7304 1415-1 91.29 WLLLW -0.77 +0.55 0% 17.5
14 Santa Clara Sporting 6213 1414+0 71.17 LWLLW -0.52 +0.28 0% 15.3
15 Reno APEX Soccer Club ENCL RL 7223 1010+0 81.14 LDDLW +0.55 +0.28 0% 14.8
16 Santa Cruz United FC 7223 1216-4 81.14 LWDLD +0.08 +0.29 0% 17.6
17 North Coast FC BLUE 6132 68-2 61.00 LWDLD +0.33 -0.70 0% 13.8
18 San Ramon FC 6132 58-3 61.00 DWDDL -0.58 -0.06 0% 18.0
19 Eastshore Alliance FC 6132 49-5 61.00 DDLDW +0.03 +0.86 0% 21.5
20 Diablo Valley Futbol Club 6123 813-5 50.83 LDWLL +0.37 -0.27 0% 16.4
21 SF United FC 7124 415-11 50.71 WLDLL +0.92 -0.31 0% 21.3
22 Stanford Strikers 6114 717-10 40.67 LLDWL -0.20 +0.54 0% 24.7
23 Belmont United Soccer Club 6114 421-17 40.67 LLLDW +0.35 +0.03 0% 23.7
24 Napa United 8125 614-8 50.63 LDLWL -0.41 -0.10 0% 22.9
25 Solano Surf 7043 413-9 40.57 LLDDD +0.42 +0.07 0% 23.2
26 South Valley Chivas 7115 830-22 40.57 DLLLL +1.37 -0.66 0% 22.0
27 Alameda Soccer Club Islanders 7025 418-14 20.29 LLLLL +0.59 -0.52 0% 23.8
28 Valley Surf 4013 011-11 10.25 LLDL +0.43 +0.32 0% 26.9
29 West Coast Soccer -RL 7007 040-40 00.00 LLLLL +0.58 -0.32 0% 28.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.77 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.