Association FC
ECNL Regional League Girls · NorCal GU13 · 29 teams · Association Football Club (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 04:00 PM
Alden E. Oliver Sports Park, Field 1 ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 0–1 (expected goals 1.0 for, 1.9 against · 0.78 expected points)
| Season so far | Association FC | Walnut Creek Surf |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 7th | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-2-0 | 6-0-1 |
| Points per game | 2.43 | 2.57 |
| Goals for / game | 2.4 | 3.1 |
| Goals against / game | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 5 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W D | W W W L W |
| Biggest win | 5–2 vs Santa Cruz United FC | 6–0 vs Belmont United Soccer Club |
| Worst loss | — | 0–1 at Elk Grove Soccer |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.80 | +1.90 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.77 | -0.10 |
Common opponents: OV Toros FC — we 0–0; they 4–1. Solano Surf — we 3–1; they 4–0. Alameda Soccer Club Islanders — we 2–0; they 2–0. SF United FC — we 3–1; they 3–0.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Walnut Creek Surf score 3.1/game — well above the league's 1.8.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Hard to break down
Walnut Creek Surf concede only 0.3/game with 5 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 at OV Toros FC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 19%; a draw (22%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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They arrive in form
Walnut Creek Surf have won 3 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
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What a win does
Folsom Lake Surf sit 6th on 2.43 PPG; we are on 2.43.A point moves us above Folsom Lake Surf on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Walnut Creek Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Association FC – Walnut Creek Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 11 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 2.13 PPG |
8th▼ down 1 | 7th— holds | 9th▼ down 2 |
| Win 2.50 PPG |
5th▲ up 2 | 5th▲ up 2 | 5th▲ up 2 |
| Draw 2.25 PPG |
8th▼ down 1 | 7th— holds | 8th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 2.13 PPG |
8th▼ down 1 | 7th— holds | 9th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–1 loss we stay 7th even if every rival loses, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd 1%
- 4th 2%
- 5th 3%
- 6th 9%
- 7th 33%
- 8th 24%
- 9th 14%
- 10th 7%
- 11th 4%
- 12th 2%
- 13th 1%
- 14th <1%
- 15th <1%
- 16th <1%
- 17th
- 18th
- 19th
- 20th
- 21st
- 22nd
- 23rd
- 24th
- 25th
- 26th
- 27th
- 28th
- 29th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.75 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elk Grove Soccer | 2.67 (+0.24) | 2nd (2.58) | 26 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 2 | Burlingame SC | 2.67 (+0.24) | 1st (2.67) | 26 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
| 3 | Merced United | 2.67 (+0.24) | 6th (2.31) | 26 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 4 | Walnut Creek Surf | 2.57 (+0.14) | 3rd (2.52) | 25 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 5 | Palo Alto SC | 2.57 (+0.14) | 4th (2.49) | 25 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 6 | Folsom Lake Surf | 2.43 (+0.00) | 5th (2.39) | A point next game |
How the results connect
10 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link Association FC to Walnut Creek Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
8 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.39 · 5th hardest of 29
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 04:00 PM |
Walnut Creek Surf 4th · 6-0-1 · GD +20 |
Home Alden E. Oliver Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
0–1 | 0.78 | 2.22 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 10:00 AM |
San Francisco Elite Academy 9th · 3-1-1 · GD +5 |
Home Alden E. Oliver Sports Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
1–1 | 1.69 | 2.16 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 01:00 PM |
Santa Clara Sporting 14th · 2-1-3 · GD +0 |
Home Witter Sports Complex · turf? |
●●○○○ Lean win | 65% |
2–1 | 2.11 | 2.16 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
Stanford Strikers 22nd · 1-1-4 · GD -10 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
2–1 | 2.29 | 2.17 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 4 TBD |
Burlingame SC 2nd · 5-1-0 · GD +21 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–2 | 0.59 | 2.04 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Eastshore Alliance FC 19th · 1-3-2 · GD -5 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
1–0 | 1.99 | 2.03 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 02:00 PM |
San Ramon FC 18th · 1-3-2 · GD -3 |
Away Rancho San Ramon Community Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 58% |
1–0 | 1.98 | 2.03 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 09:00 AM |
Livermore Fusion SC 8th · 5-1-1 · GD +9 |
Away Robertson Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
1–1 | 1.30 | 1.98 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 11:00 AM |
OV Toros FC 11th · 3-1-2 · GD +4 |
Away far trip
Morgan Hill Outdoor Sports Center · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
2–1 | 1.56 | 1.96 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Elk Grove Soccer | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 37 | 6 | +31 | 16 | 2.67 | WWWDW | +0.00 | -0.16 | 84% | 2.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at San Francisco Elite Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs Folsom Lake Surf · Sun Nov 8 at Cal Magic See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Burlingame SC | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 4 | +21 | 16 | 2.67 | WWDWW | +0.06 | -0.59 | 94% | 2.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Alameda Soccer Club Islanders · Sun Nov 1 at Santa Clara Sporting · Sun Nov 8 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Merced United | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 4 | +20 | 16 | 2.67 | WWWWW | -0.22 | +0.62 | 33% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Santa Cruz United FC · Sat Oct 31 at Valley Surf · Sun Nov 8 at Palo Alto SC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Walnut Creek Surf | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 2 | +20 | 18 | 2.57 | WLWWW | -0.10 | -0.19 | 71% | 3.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Association FC · Sun Nov 1 at San Ramon FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Valley Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Palo Alto SC | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 5 | +19 | 18 | 2.57 | WWWWL | -0.55 | -0.36 | 67% | 3.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at South Valley Chivas · Sun Nov 1 vs Solano Surf · Sun Nov 8 vs Merced United See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Folsom Lake Surf | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 22 | 2 | +20 | 17 | 2.43 | WDWWW | -0.27 | +0.12 | 46% | 4.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Elk Grove Soccer · Sun Nov 8 vs Livermore Fusion SC · Sun Mar 14 vs Santa Cruz United FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Association FC | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 17 | 2.43 | DWWWW | -0.77 | +0.39 | 2% | 7.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Walnut Creek Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs San Francisco Elite Academy · Sun Nov 8 vs Santa Clara Sporting See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Livermore Fusion SC | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 16 | 2.29 | WDWWW | -0.85 | +0.25 | 1% | 8.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at OV Toros FC · Sun Nov 1 at Reno APEX Soccer Club ENCL RL · Sun Nov 8 at Folsom Lake Surf See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | San Francisco Elite Academy | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 10 | 2.00 | DLWWW | -0.96 | +0.04 | 0% | 9.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Elk Grove Soccer · Sun Nov 1 at Association FC · Sat Nov 7 at Cal Magic See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | East County Revolution FC | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 12 | 1.71 | DWLWD | -0.32 | -0.28 | 0% | 9.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sun Nov 8 at West Coast Soccer -RL · Sun Mar 14 vs South Valley Chivas See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | OV Toros FC | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 10 | 1.67 | LWWWL | -0.07 | +0.24 | 0% | 11.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Livermore Fusion SC · Sun Nov 1 at Belmont United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 vs San Francisco Elite Academy See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Cal Magic | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 10 | 1.43 | LWLDL | +0.18 | +0.26 | 0% | 13.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs San Francisco Elite Academy · Sun Nov 8 vs Elk Grove Soccer · Sun Mar 14 at OV Toros FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Los Gatos United Soccer Club | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 9 | 1.29 | WLLLW | -0.77 | +0.55 | 0% | 17.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Solano Surf · Sun Nov 1 at SF United FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Burlingame SC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Santa Clara Sporting | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 14 | +0 | 7 | 1.17 | LWLLW | -0.52 | +0.28 | 0% | 15.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Stanford Strikers · Sun Nov 1 vs Burlingame SC · Sat Nov 7 vs San Ramon FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | Reno APEX Soccer Club ENCL RL | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10 | +0 | 8 | 1.14 | LDDLW | +0.55 | +0.28 | 0% | 15.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Napa United · Sun Nov 1 vs Livermore Fusion SC · Sun Nov 8 vs Belmont United Soccer Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | Santa Cruz United FC | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 8 | 1.14 | LWDLD | +0.08 | +0.29 | 0% | 17.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Merced United · Sun Nov 1 at Stanford Strikers · Sun Mar 14 at Folsom Lake Surf See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | North Coast FC BLUE | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 6 | 1.00 | LWDLD | +0.33 | -0.70 | 0% | 14.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 vs Valley Surf · Sun Oct 25 at SF United FC · Sun Nov 1 vs West Coast Soccer -RL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 18 | San Ramon FC | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 6 | 1.00 | DWDDL | -0.58 | -0.06 | 0% | 17.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Eastshore Alliance FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Walnut Creek Surf · Sat Nov 7 at Santa Clara Sporting See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 19 | Eastshore Alliance FC | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 6 | 1.00 | DDLDW | +0.03 | +0.86 | 0% | 21.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs San Ramon FC · Sun Nov 1 at Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sun Nov 8 vs North Coast FC BLUE See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 20 | Diablo Valley Futbol Club | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 5 | 0.83 | LDWLL | +0.37 | -0.27 | 0% | 16.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs East County Revolution FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Eastshore Alliance FC · Sun Nov 8 vs South Valley Chivas See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 21 | SF United FC | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 15 | -11 | 5 | 0.71 | WLDLL | +0.92 | -0.31 | 0% | 21.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs North Coast FC BLUE · Sun Nov 1 vs Los Gatos United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at Alameda Soccer Club Islanders See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 22 | Stanford Strikers | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 4 | 0.67 | LLDWL | -0.20 | +0.54 | 0% | 24.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Santa Clara Sporting · Sun Nov 1 vs Santa Cruz United FC · Sun Nov 8 vs San Ramon FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 23 | Belmont United Soccer Club | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 21 | -17 | 4 | 0.67 | LLLDW | +0.35 | +0.03 | 0% | 23.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs West Coast Soccer -RL · Sun Nov 1 vs OV Toros FC · Sun Nov 8 at Reno APEX Soccer Club ENCL RL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 24 | Napa United | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 5 | 0.63 | LDLWL | -0.41 | -0.10 | 0% | 23.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Reno APEX Soccer Club ENCL RL · Sat Nov 7 vs Solano Surf · Sun Mar 14 vs Livermore Fusion SC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 25 | Solano Surf | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 | 0.57 | LLDDD | +0.42 | +0.07 | 0% | 23.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at Palo Alto SC · Sat Nov 7 at Napa United See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 26 | South Valley Chivas | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 30 | -22 | 4 | 0.57 | DLLLL | +1.37 | -0.66 | 0% | 21.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Palo Alto SC · Sun Nov 1 vs Alameda Soccer Club Islanders · Sun Nov 8 at Diablo Valley Futbol Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 27 | Alameda Soccer Club Islanders | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 18 | -14 | 2 | 0.29 | LLLLL | +0.59 | -0.52 | 0% | 23.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Burlingame SC · Sun Nov 1 at South Valley Chivas · Sun Nov 8 vs SF United FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 28 | Valley Surf | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 11 | -11 | 1 | 0.25 | LLDL | +0.43 | +0.32 | 0% | 26.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 at North Coast FC BLUE · Sat Oct 31 vs Merced United · Sun Nov 8 at Walnut Creek Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 29 | West Coast Soccer -RL | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 40 | -40 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.58 | -0.32 | 0% | 28.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Belmont United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at North Coast FC BLUE · Sun Nov 8 vs East County Revolution FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.77 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.