TableChase Clubs

Walnut Creek Surf

ECNL Regional League Girls · NorCal GU13 · 29 teams · Walnut Creek Surf Soccer Club (all teams)

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4th
6-0-1 record · 7 played
2.57 points per game
+20 goal diff · 22–2
WLWWWlast 5
72% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.5
-0.10 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 04:00 PM

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Walnut Creek Surf
4th · 2.57 PPG
at
Association FC
7th · 2.43 PPG

Alden E. Oliver Sports Park, Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 1–0 (expected goals 1.9 for, 1.0 against · 2.00 expected points)

Season so farWalnut Creek SurfAssociation FC
Position4th7th
Record (W-D-L)6-0-15-2-0
Points per game2.572.43
Goals for / game3.12.4
Goals against / game0.31.0
Clean sheets52
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)W W W L WW W W W D
Biggest win6–0 vs Belmont United Soccer Club5–2 vs Santa Cruz United FC
Worst loss0–1 at Elk Grove Soccer—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.90+0.80
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.10-0.77

Common opponents: SF United FC — we 3–0; they 3–1. Solano Surf — we 4–0; they 3–1. OV Toros FC — we 4–1; they 0–0. Alameda Soccer Club Islanders — we 2–0; they 2–0.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 at Elk Grove Soccer.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 60% / draw 22% / loss 19%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • They arrive in form
    Association FC have won 4 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 04:00 PM at Alden E. Oliver Sports Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Association FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Walnut Creek Surf – Association FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 11 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.63 PPG		 4th— holds 5th▼ down 1 4th— holds
Win
2.63 PPG		 4th— holds 5th▼ down 1 4th— holds
Draw
2.38 PPG		 6th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 2
Loss
2.25 PPG		 8th▼ down 4 7th▼ down 3 8th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–0 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

10% finish 1st
72% top 4
28% below the top 4
3.5 average finish
  1. 1st 10%
  2. 2nd 19%
  3. 3rd 23%
  4. 4th 20%
  5. 5th 16%
  6. 6th 9%
  7. 7th 2%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th
  19. 19th
  20. 20th
  21. 21st
  22. 22nd
  23. 23rd
  24. 24th
  25. 25th
  26. 26th
  27. 27th
  28. 28th
  29. 29th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.81 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Elk Grove Soccer 2.67 (+0.10) 2nd (2.58) 25 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
2 Burlingame SC 2.67 (+0.10) 1st (2.67) 25 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
3 Merced United 2.67 (+0.10) 6th (2.31) 25 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection

How the results connect

10 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Walnut Creek Surf to Association FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

8 favour us
1 even
1 favour them
+2.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–0 0–2 3–0 1–3 4–0 1–3 4–1 0–0 3–0 1–1 3–4 1–1 0–1 5–0 0–5 12–2 Walnut Creek Surf 4th Alameda Soccer Club… 27th SF United FC 21st Solano Surf 25th OV Toros FC 11th Reno APEX Soccer Cl… 15th Elk Grove Soccer 1st South Valley Chivas 26th Association FC 7th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 15th 29th Aug 15 Aug 23 Sep 20 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.19 · 20th hardest of 29

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
04:00 PM		 Association FC
7th · 5-2-0 · GD +10		 Away
Alden E. Oliver Sports Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
60%		 1–0 2.00 2.50 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
02:00 PM		 San Ramon FC
18th · 1-3-2 · GD -3		 Away
San Ramon Sports Park - Tiffany Roberts		 ●○○○○ Favorable
77%		 2–0 2.47 2.50 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
10:00 AM		 Valley Surf
28th · 0-1-3 · GD -11		 Home
Heather Farms Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
93%		 3–0 2.85 2.53 Bank it
Sun Mar 14
01:00 PM		 Diablo Valley Futbol Club
20th · 1-2-3 · GD -5		 Away
Marathon/Tesoro Fields		 ●○○○○ Favorable
80%		 2–0 2.54 2.53 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 Cal Magic
12th · 3-1-3 · GD -1		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
83%		 3–0 2.60 2.54 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
TBD		 Santa Cruz United FC
16th · 2-2-3 · GD -4		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
87%		 3–0 2.70 2.55 Bank it
Sun Apr 18
01:00 PM		 Napa United
24th · 1-2-5 · GD -8		 Away
Silverado Middle School		 ●○○○○ Favorable
83%		 2–0 2.62 2.56 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
TBD		 Merced United
3rd · 5-1-0 · GD +20		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%		 1–1 1.69 2.50 Swing game
Sun May 2
TBD		 Stanford Strikers
22nd · 1-1-4 · GD -10		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
92%		 3–0 2.82 2.52 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Elk Grove Soccer 6510 376+31 162.67 WWWDW +0.00 -0.16 84% 2.8
2 Burlingame SC 6510 254+21 162.67 WWDWW +0.06 -0.59 94% 2.1
3 Merced United 6510 244+20 162.67 WWWWW -0.22 +0.62 33% 5.1
4 Walnut Creek Surf 7601 222+20 182.57 WLWWW -0.10 -0.19 72% 3.5
5 Palo Alto SC 7601 245+19 182.57 WWWWL -0.55 -0.36 67% 3.7
6 Folsom Lake Surf 7520 222+20 172.43 WDWWW -0.27 +0.12 47% 4.5
7 Association FC 7520 177+10 172.43 DWWWW -0.77 +0.39 2% 7.9
8 Livermore Fusion SC 7511 156+9 162.29 WDWWW -0.85 +0.25 1% 8.4
9 San Francisco Elite Academy 5311 94+5 102.00 DLWWW -0.96 +0.04 0% 9.8
10 East County Revolution FC 7331 1410+4 121.71 DWLWD -0.32 -0.28 0% 9.9
11 OV Toros FC 6312 1410+4 101.67 LWWWL -0.07 +0.24 0% 11.3
12 Cal Magic 7313 1213-1 101.43 LWLDL +0.18 +0.26 0% 13.6
13 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 7304 1415-1 91.29 WLLLW -0.77 +0.55 0% 17.3
14 Santa Clara Sporting 6213 1414+0 71.17 LWLLW -0.52 +0.28 0% 15.3
15 Reno APEX Soccer Club ENCL RL 7223 1010+0 81.14 LDDLW +0.55 +0.28 0% 14.9
16 Santa Cruz United FC 7223 1216-4 81.14 LWDLD +0.08 +0.29 0% 17.8
17 North Coast FC BLUE 6132 68-2 61.00 LWDLD +0.33 -0.70 0% 13.8
18 San Ramon FC 6132 58-3 61.00 DWDDL -0.58 -0.06 0% 18.0
19 Eastshore Alliance FC 6132 49-5 61.00 DDLDW +0.03 +0.86 0% 21.3
20 Diablo Valley Futbol Club 6123 813-5 50.83 LDWLL +0.37 -0.27 0% 16.5
21 SF United FC 7124 415-11 50.71 WLDLL +0.92 -0.31 0% 21.4
22 Stanford Strikers 6114 717-10 40.67 LLDWL -0.20 +0.54 0% 24.7
23 Belmont United Soccer Club 6114 421-17 40.67 LLLDW +0.35 +0.03 0% 23.7
24 Napa United 8125 614-8 50.63 LDLWL -0.41 -0.10 0% 22.9
25 Solano Surf 7043 413-9 40.57 LLDDD +0.42 +0.07 0% 23.4
26 South Valley Chivas 7115 830-22 40.57 DLLLL +1.37 -0.66 0% 21.9
27 Alameda Soccer Club Islanders 7025 418-14 20.29 LLLLL +0.59 -0.52 0% 23.8
28 Valley Surf 4013 011-11 10.25 LLDL +0.43 +0.32 0% 26.9
29 West Coast Soccer -RL 7007 040-40 00.00 LLLLL +0.58 -0.32 0% 28.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.77 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.