Rockford Raptors FC
ECNL Regional League Girls · Lake Michigan GU16 · 4 teams · Rockford Raptors FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:00 PM
LTSC, Field 1 (11v11) ↗ far trip
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 0–2 (expected goals 0.8 for, 2.5 against · 0.42 expected points)
| Season so far | Rockford Raptors FC | FC 1974 Libertyville |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 1st |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-2-2 | 5-1-1 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 2.29 |
| Goals for / game | 0.6 | 3.1 |
| Goals against / game | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W L D D | L W W W |
| Biggest win | 2–0 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club | 4–0 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club |
| Worst loss | 0–4 vs Nationals SC | 0–3 vs Chicago Inter |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.44 | +1.07 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.53 | -0.59 |
Common opponents: FC Wisconsin — we 0–0; they 3–1. Evolution — we 1–1; they 3–1. Eclipse Select Soccer Club — we 2–0; they 4–0.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
FC 1974 Libertyville score 3.1/game — well above the league's 1.2.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–0 at FC Wisconsin, 0–4 vs Nationals SC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 9%; a draw (15%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 04:00 PM at LTSC.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Evolution sit 2nd on 1.00 PPG; we are on 1.00.A point moves us above Evolution on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the FC 1974 Libertyville game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Rockford Raptors FC – FC 1974 Libertyville) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.83 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.33 PPG |
2nd▲ up 1 | 2nd▲ up 1 | 2nd▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Loss 0.83 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–2 loss we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 24%
- 3rd 71%
- 4th 5%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 5 remaining known games (max 2.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC 1974 Libertyville | 2.29 (+1.29) | 1st (2.34) | 18 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Evolution | 1.00 (+0.00) | 2nd (1.23) | A point next game |
How the results connect
2 chains · 4 teams
Paths of results that link Rockford Raptors FC to FC 1974 Libertyville through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
2 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.21 · 1st hardest of 4
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 04:00 PM |
FC 1974 Libertyville 1st · 5-1-1 · GD +15 |
Away far trip
LTSC |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
0–2 | 0.42 | 0.90 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 02:00 PM |
Evolution 2nd · 2-1-4 · GD +1 |
Away far trip
Stuart Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
1–1 | 0.96 | 0.91 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 09:00 AM |
FC 1974 Libertyville 1st · 5-1-1 · GD +15 |
Home Mercyhealth Sportscore Two |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
0–2 | 0.58 | 0.87 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 TBD |
FC Wisconsin 4th · 0-1-5 · GD -17 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
1–0 | 1.78 | 0.97 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 22 02:00 PM |
Chicago Inter |
Home Mercyhealth Sportscore Two |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
0–1 | 1.13 | 0.99 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | FC 1974 Libertyville | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 7 | +15 | 16 | 2.29 | WWWL | -0.59 | -0.50 | 100% | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Rockford Raptors FC · Sun Oct 25 vs FC Wisconsin · Sat Oct 31 at Rockford Raptors FC See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Evolution | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 7 | 1.00 | LLDL | +0.27 | -0.35 | 100% | 2.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Wisconsin · Sun Oct 25 vs Rockford Raptors FC · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Wisconsin See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Rockford Raptors FC | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 5 | 1.00 | DDLW | -0.53 | +0.21 | 100% | 2.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC 1974 Libertyville · Sun Oct 25 at Evolution · Sat Oct 31 vs FC 1974 Libertyville See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | FC Wisconsin | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 20 | -17 | 1 | 0.17 | DLLL | +0.36 | +0.09 | 100% | 3.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Evolution · Sun Oct 25 at FC 1974 Libertyville · Sat Oct 31 at Evolution See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.25 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.