FC Wisconsin
ECNL Regional League Girls · Lake Michigan GU16 · 4 teams · FC Wisconsin Girls (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:00 PM
FC Wisconsin Soccer Park, Field 1 - Val Olla Field ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.2 for, 2.1 against · 0.83 expected points)
| Season so far | FC Wisconsin | Evolution |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-1-5 | 2-1-4 |
| Points per game | 0.17 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.5 | 2.0 |
| Goals against / game | 3.3 | 1.9 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L D | L D L L |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | 0–6 vs Chicago Inter | 1–3 vs FC 1974 Libertyville |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.02 | -0.10 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.36 | +0.27 |
Common opponents: Rockford Raptors FC — we 0–0; they 1–1. FC 1974 Libertyville — we 1–3; they 1–3. Eclipse Select Soccer Club — we 0–2; they 1–2. Chicago Inter — we 0–6; they 0–1.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Evolution score 2.0/game — well above the league's 1.2.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–0 vs Rockford Raptors FC, 0–2 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club, 0–6 vs Chicago Inter.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 21%; a draw (21%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Evolution game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Wisconsin – Evolution) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.14 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Win 0.57 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Draw 0.29 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Loss 0.14 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 4th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd 1%
- 3rd 5%
- 4th 94%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 5 remaining known games (max 1.45 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC 1974 Libertyville | 2.29 (+2.12) | 1st (2.34) | 25 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Evolution | 1.00 (+0.83) | 2nd (1.23) | 10 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection |
| 3 | Rockford Raptors FC | 1.00 (+0.83) | 3rd (0.99) | 10 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection |
How the results connect
2 chains · 4 teams
Paths of results that link FC Wisconsin to Evolution through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
2 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.09 · 2nd hardest of 4
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 02:00 PM |
Evolution 2nd · 2-1-4 · GD +1 |
Home FC Wisconsin Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–2 | 0.83 | 0.26 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 12:00 PM |
FC 1974 Libertyville 1st · 5-1-1 · GD +15 |
Away far trip
LTSC |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
0–3 | 0.20 | 0.25 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 10:00 AM |
Evolution 2nd · 2-1-4 · GD +1 |
Away far trip
Stuart Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
1–2 | 0.62 | 0.29 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 TBD |
Nationals SC |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
0–1 | 0.81 | 0.35 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 TBD |
Rockford Raptors FC 3rd · 1-2-2 · GD -7 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
0–1 | 0.95 | 0.40 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | FC 1974 Libertyville | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 7 | +15 | 16 | 2.29 | WWWL | -0.59 | -0.50 | 100% | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Rockford Raptors FC · Sun Oct 25 vs FC Wisconsin · Sat Oct 31 at Rockford Raptors FC See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Evolution | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 7 | 1.00 | LLDL | +0.27 | -0.35 | 100% | 2.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Wisconsin · Sun Oct 25 vs Rockford Raptors FC · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Wisconsin See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Rockford Raptors FC | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 5 | 1.00 | DDLW | -0.53 | +0.21 | 100% | 2.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC 1974 Libertyville · Sun Oct 25 at Evolution · Sat Oct 31 vs FC 1974 Libertyville See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | FC Wisconsin | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 20 | -17 | 1 | 0.17 | DLLL | +0.36 | +0.09 | 100% | 3.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Evolution · Sun Oct 25 at FC 1974 Libertyville · Sat Oct 31 at Evolution See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.25 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.