Evolution

ECNL Regional League Girls · Lake Michigan GU16 · 4 teams · Evolution SC (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 1 hour ago.

Add schedule to calendar

2nd

2-1-4 record · 7 played

1.00 points per game

+1 goal diff · 14–13

LLDLlast 4

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.3

+0.27 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:00 PM

Open the match preview →

Evolution
2nd · 1.00 PPG

FC Wisconsin
4th · 0.17 PPG

FC Wisconsin Soccer Park, Field 1 - Val Olla Field ↗ far trip

59% 21% 21%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.1 for, 1.2 against · 1.97 expected points)

Season so far	Evolution	FC Wisconsin
Position	2nd	4th
Record (W-D-L)	2-1-4	0-1-5
Points per game	1.00	0.17
Goals for / game	2.0	0.5
Goals against / game	1.9	3.3
Clean sheets	0	1
Held scoreless	1	3
Form (recent first)	L D L L	L L L D
Biggest win	—	—
Worst loss	1–3 vs FC 1974 Libertyville	0–6 vs Chicago Inter
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.10	-1.02
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.27	+0.36

Common opponents: FC 1974 Libertyville — we 1–3; they 1–3. Eclipse Select Soccer Club — we 1–2; they 0–2. Rockford Raptors FC — we 1–1; they 0–0. Chicago Inter — we 0–1; they 0–6.

Game plan

They struggle to score
FC Wisconsin average 0.5 goals/game (league avg 1.2); blanked in 3 of 6.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
They leak goals — be greedy
FC Wisconsin concede 3.3/game; worst result 0–6 vs Chicago Inter.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs Chicago Inter.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Swing game — small margins
Win 59% / draw 21% / loss 21%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Confidence is low on their side
FC Wisconsin have lost 3 straight (form: DLLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
Away game
Kickoff 02:00 PM at FC Wisconsin Soccer Park.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Wisconsin game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Evolution – FC Wisconsin) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 1.25 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	3rd▼ down 1
Win 1.25 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	3rd▼ down 1
Draw 1.00 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	3rd▼ down 1
Loss 0.88 PPG	3rd▼ down 1	2nd— holds	3rd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

2.3 average finish

1st <1%
2nd 75%
3rd 24%
4th 1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 1.73 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	FC 1974 Libertyville	2.29 (+1.29)	1st (2.34)	19 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

2 chains · 4 teams

Paths of results that link Evolution to FC Wisconsin through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us

2 even

0 favour them

+0.0 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

2 chains

Position over the season

2 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.35 · 3rd hardest of 4

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 02:00 PM	FC Wisconsin 4th · 0-1-5 · GD -17	Away far trip FC Wisconsin Soccer Park	●●○○○ Lean win	59%	2–1	1.97	1.12	Swing game
Sun Oct 25 02:00 PM	Rockford Raptors FC 3rd · 1-2-2 · GD -7	Home Stuart Sports Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	52%	1–1	1.80	1.20	Swing game
Sat Oct 31 10:00 AM	FC Wisconsin 4th · 0-1-5 · GD -17	Home Stuart Sports Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	67%	2–1	2.20	1.30	Swing game
Sun Nov 1 02:00 PM	FC 1974 Libertyville 1st · 5-1-1 · GD +15	Away far trip LTSC	●●●●● Very tough	13%	1–2	0.54	1.23	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

FC 1974 Libertyville

+15

2.29

WWWL

-0.59

-0.50

100%

1.0

L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Chicago Inter (—)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (—)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	FC Wisconsin (4th)	3–1
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Evolution (2nd)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Rockford Raptors FC · Sun Oct 25 vs FC Wisconsin · Sat Oct 31 at Rockford Raptors FC See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Rockford Raptors FC (3rd)	2–0	76%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	FC Wisconsin (4th)	3–0	88%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Rockford Raptors FC (3rd)	2–0	68%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Evolution (2nd)	2–1	72%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Evolution

1.00

LLDL

+0.27

-0.35

100%

2.3

L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Chicago Inter (—)	0–1
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Rockford Raptors FC (3rd)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (—)	1–2
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	FC 1974 Libertyville (1st)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Wisconsin · Sun Oct 25 vs Rockford Raptors FC · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Wisconsin See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Wisconsin (4th)	2–1	59%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Rockford Raptors FC (3rd)	1–1	52%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC Wisconsin (4th)	2–1	67%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	FC 1974 Libertyville (1st)	1–2	13%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Rockford Raptors FC

-7

1.00

DDLW

-0.53

+0.21

100%

2.8

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (—)	2–0
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Nationals SC (—)	0–4
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Evolution (2nd)	1–1
D	Sun Aug 30	at	FC Wisconsin (4th)	0–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC 1974 Libertyville · Sun Oct 25 at Evolution · Sat Oct 31 vs FC 1974 Libertyville See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC 1974 Libertyville (1st)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Evolution (2nd)	1–1	24%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC 1974 Libertyville (1st)	0–2	13%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	FC Wisconsin (4th)	1–0	50%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Chicago Inter (—)	0–1	28%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Wisconsin

-17

0.17

DLLL

+0.36

+0.09

100%

3.9

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Chicago Inter (—)	0–6
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (—)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	FC 1974 Libertyville (1st)	1–3
D	Sun Aug 30	vs	Rockford Raptors FC (3rd)	0–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Evolution · Sun Oct 25 at FC 1974 Libertyville · Sat Oct 31 at Evolution See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Evolution (2nd)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	FC 1974 Libertyville (1st)	0–3	4%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Evolution (2nd)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Nationals SC (—)	0–1	19%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Rockford Raptors FC (3rd)	0–1	23%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.25 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.