Stanislaus Surf
ECNL Regional League Girls · Golden State GU17 · 11 teams · Stanislaus Surf Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 04:20 PM
River Islands Soccer Complex, Field 2 ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.8 for, 1.0 against · 1.91 expected points)
| Season so far | Stanislaus Surf | Pleasanton RAGE |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 9th | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-2-7 | 2-1-7 |
| Points per game | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| Goals for / game | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals against / game | 1.6 | 3.2 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 6 | 7 |
| Form (recent first) | L L D L L | L L L L L |
| Biggest win | 5–0 at COSC | 7–1 vs Marin FC |
| Worst loss | 1–4 vs Placer United | 0–9 at Placer United |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.46 | -1.49 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.58 | +0.62 |
Already played this season: Sun Sep 13 1–1 at Pleasanton RAGE (D)
Common opponents: San Juan SC — we 0–2; they 2–0. Bay Area Surf — we 0–1; they 0–3. MVLA — we 0–2; they 0–7. Placer United — we 1–4; they 0–9, 0–1. Mustang SC — we 0–0; they 0–1, 0–2. Davis Legacy — we 0–1, 0–2; they 0–7.
Game plan
-
They leak goals — be greedy
Pleasanton RAGE concede 3.2/game; worst result 0–9 at Placer United.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 6 time(s): 0–2 at San Juan SC, 0–1 at Bay Area Surf, 0–2 at MVLA, 0–0 vs Mustang SC, 0–1 vs Davis Legacy, 0–2 at Davis Legacy.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 56% / draw 23% / loss 21%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
Confidence is low on their side
Pleasanton RAGE have lost 5 straight (form: LLLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
-
What a win does
Pleasanton RAGE sit 8th on 0.70 PPG; we are on 0.50.A point moves us above Pleasanton RAGE on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Pleasanton RAGE game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Stanislaus Surf – Pleasanton RAGE) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 0.55 PPG |
9th— holds | 9th— holds | 10th▼ down 1 |
| Win 0.73 PPG |
8th▲ up 1 | 8th▲ up 1 | 8th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 0.55 PPG |
9th— holds | 9th— holds | 10th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.45 PPG |
9th— holds | 9th— holds | 10th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 9th even if every rival loses, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th <1%
- 7th 14%
- 8th 59%
- 9th 26%
- 10th 1%
- 11th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 1.81 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MVLA | 3.00 (+2.50) | 1st (2.60) | 58 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 50 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | San Juan SC | 2.44 (+1.94) | 4th (2.02) | 47 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Davis Legacy | 2.40 (+1.90) | 3rd (2.05) | 46 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Bay Area Surf | 2.30 (+1.80) | 2nd (2.13) | 44 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | Mustang SC | 1.90 (+1.40) | 5th (1.83) | 35 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 6 | Placer United | 1.36 (+0.86) | 6th (1.56) | 24 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 7 | Force | 1.11 (+0.61) | 7th (1.17) | 19 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 8 | Pleasanton RAGE | 0.70 (+0.20) | 9th (0.77) | A point next game |
How the results connect
78 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Stanislaus Surf to Pleasanton RAGE through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
13 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.30 · 10th hardest of 11
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Sep 27 11:00 AM no score posted |
Mustang SC 5th · 6-1-3 · GD +12 |
Away far trip
Provident Field @ MSC |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
0–2 | 0.57 | 0.51 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 11 TBD no score posted |
Davis Legacy 3rd · 8-0-2 · GD +26 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
0–2 | 0.48 | 0.50 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 04:20 PM |
Pleasanton RAGE 8th · 2-1-7 · GD -22 |
Home River Islands Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
1–1 | 1.91 | 0.61 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 10:00 AM |
Placer United 6th · 5-0-6 · GD +5 |
Away far trip
Placer Valley Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
0–1 | 0.73 | 0.62 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 11:00 AM |
Marin FC 11th · 0-0-10 · GD -52 |
Home River Islands Soccer Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 84% |
2–0 | 2.64 | 0.76 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 14 11:00 AM |
San Juan SC 2nd · 7-1-1 · GD +15 |
Home River Islands Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
0–1 | 0.62 | 0.75 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 11:00 AM |
Bay Area Surf 4th · 7-2-1 · GD +24 |
Home River Islands Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
0–2 | 0.45 | 0.73 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
Marin FC 11th · 0-0-10 · GD -52 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
2–0 | 2.49 | 0.83 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 25 04:20 PM |
Force 7th · 3-1-5 · GD -4 |
Home River Islands Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–1 | 1.31 | 0.85 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 11:00 AM |
COSC 10th · 1-0-7 · GD -30 |
Home River Islands Soccer Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 70% |
2–0 | 2.29 | 0.92 | Bank it |
| Sun May 9 11:00 AM |
MVLA 1st · 9-0-0 · GD +34 |
Home River Islands Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
0–2 | 0.25 | 0.89 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MVLA | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 37 | 3 | +34 | 27 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.52 | +0.10 | 100% | 1.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Bay Area Surf · Sun Nov 1 at Marin FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Force See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | San Juan SC | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 2 | +15 | 22 | 2.44 | DWWWW | -1.12 | +0.70 | 80% | 3.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at Mustang SC · Sat Oct 10 vs COSC · Sun Oct 25 at Davis Legacy See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Davis Legacy | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 35 | 9 | +26 | 24 | 2.40 | WWWWW | -0.73 | +0.25 | 86% | 3.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 at Stanislaus Surf · Sun Oct 25 vs San Juan SC · Sun Nov 1 at Placer United See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Bay Area Surf | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 29 | 5 | +24 | 23 | 2.30 | DWLDW | -0.43 | +0.25 | 94% | 2.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 at COSC · Sun Oct 25 vs MVLA · Sun Nov 1 vs Mustang SC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Mustang SC | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 11 | +12 | 19 | 1.90 | WLDWW | -0.13 | -0.03 | 37% | 4.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 vs Stanislaus Surf · Sun Oct 4 vs San Juan SC · Sun Oct 25 vs COSC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Placer United | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 14 | +5 | 15 | 1.36 | LWWWL | +0.34 | -0.58 | 3% | 5.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Davis Legacy · Sun Nov 8 vs Stanislaus Surf · Sat Apr 3 vs Force See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Force | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 10 | 1.11 | WLLWD | +0.25 | +0.03 | 0% | 7.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs COSC · Sun Nov 8 at MVLA · Sun Nov 15 vs Davis Legacy See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Pleasanton RAGE | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 32 | -22 | 7 | 0.70 | LLLLL | +0.62 | -0.10 | 0% | 8.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Stanislaus Surf · Sun Nov 15 vs COSC · Sat Nov 21 vs Force See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | Stanislaus Surf | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 5 | 0.50 | LLDLL | +0.58 | -0.30 | 0% | 8.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 at Mustang SC · Sun Oct 11 vs Davis Legacy · Sun Nov 1 vs Pleasanton RAGE See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | COSC | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 36 | -30 | 3 | 0.38 | LLLLL | +0.47 | +0.27 | 0% | 10.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at San Juan SC · Sun Oct 11 vs Bay Area Surf · Sun Oct 25 at Mustang SC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | Marin FC | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 55 | -52 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.74 | +0.09 | 0% | 10.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs MVLA · Sun Nov 8 at Mustang SC · Sun Nov 15 at Stanislaus Surf See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.74 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.