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Bay Area Surf

ECNL Regional League Girls · Golden State GU17 · 11 teams · Bay Area Surf (all teams)

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4th
7-2-1 record · 10 played
2.30 points per game
+24 goal diff · 29–5
DWLDWlast 5
94% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.8
-0.43 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 09:00 AM

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Bay Area Surf
4th · 2.30 PPG
vs
MVLA
1st · 3.00 PPG

Willow Glen High School, Football Stadium ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.1 for, 1.5 against · 1.10 expected points)

Season so farBay Area SurfMVLA
Position4th1st
Record (W-D-L)7-2-19-0-0
Points per game2.303.00
Goals for / game2.94.1
Goals against / game0.50.3
Clean sheets86
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)W D L W DW W W W W
Biggest win10–0 at Marin FC7–0 vs COSC
Worst loss1–4 at Davis Legacy—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.64+2.53
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.43-0.52

Common opponents: Stanislaus Surf — we 1–0; they 2–0. Pleasanton RAGE — we 3–0; they 7–0. Placer United — we 2–0; they 2–1, 4–0. Marin FC — we 10–0; they 7–0. Mustang SC — we 3–0; they 4–1. Force — we 3–0, 1–1; they 2–0. Davis Legacy — we 1–4; they 2–1. COSC — we 5–0; they 7–0.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    MVLA score 4.1/game — well above the league's 1.7.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    MVLA concede only 0.3/game with 6 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 at San Juan SC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 28%; a draw (25%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    MVLA have won 9 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the MVLA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Bay Area Surf – MVLA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 2.18 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Win
2.36 PPG		 4th— holds 2nd▲ up 2 4th— holds
Draw
2.18 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Loss
2.09 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 4th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

3% finish 1st
94% top 4
6% below the top 4
2.8 average finish
  1. 1st 3%
  2. 2nd 43%
  3. 3rd 32%
  4. 4th 17%
  5. 5th 5%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.67 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 MVLA 3.00 (+0.70) 1st (2.60) 40 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
2 San Juan SC 2.44 (+0.14) 4th (2.02) 29 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
3 Davis Legacy 2.40 (+0.10) 3rd (2.05) 28 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection

How the results connect

84 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Bay Area Surf to MVLA through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

22 favour us
7 even
55 favour them
-1.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–0 1–4 3–0 0–2 2–0 1–2 1–0 0–2 5–0 0–7 1–1 0–4 10–0 0–7 1–4 1–2 3–0 0–7 4–2 0–3 Bay Area Surf 4th Mustang SC 5th Force 7th Placer United 6th Stanislaus Surf 9th COSC 10th Marin FC 11th Davis Legacy 3rd Pleasanton RAGE 8th MVLA 1st

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

1st 6th 11th Aug 15 Aug 29 Sep 20 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.25 · 4th hardest of 11

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 11
02:00 PM
no score posted		 COSC
10th · 1-0-7 · GD -30		 Away far trip
Edison High School Fields		 ●○○○○ Favorable
96%		 4–0 2.91 2.36 Bank it
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM		 MVLA
1st · 9-0-0 · GD +34		 Home
Willow Glen High School · turf?		 ●●●●○ Tough
28%		 1–1 1.10 2.25 Upside
Sun Nov 1
TBD		 Mustang SC
5th · 6-1-3 · GD +12		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
59%		 1–1 1.99 2.23 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
TBD		 San Juan SC
2nd · 7-1-1 · GD +15		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
41%		 1–0 1.54 2.18 Upside
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 MVLA
1st · 9-0-0 · GD +34		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
22%		 0–1 0.88 2.09 Upside
Sun Apr 11
11:00 AM		 Stanislaus Surf
9th · 1-2-7 · GD -8		 Away far trip
River Islands Soccer Complex		 ●●○○○ Lean win
73%		 2–0 2.37 2.11 Bank it
Sun Apr 18
02:45 PM		 Placer United
6th · 5-0-6 · GD +5		 Away far trip
Placer Valley Soccer Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
57%		 1–0 1.94 2.10 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 Davis Legacy
3rd · 8-0-2 · GD +26		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%		 1–1 1.68 2.08 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 Davis Legacy
3rd · 8-0-2 · GD +26		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%		 1–1 1.68 2.06 Swing game
Sun May 2
TBD		 Marin FC
11th · 0-0-10 · GD -52		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
99%		 6–0 2.99 2.10 Bank it
Sun May 9
TBD		 Pleasanton RAGE
8th · 2-1-7 · GD -22		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
90%		 3–0 2.77 2.13 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 MVLA 9900 373+34 273.00 WWWWW -0.52 +0.10 100% 1.1
2 San Juan SC 9711 172+15 222.44 DWWWW -1.12 +0.70 80% 3.5
3 Davis Legacy 10802 359+26 242.40 WWWWW -0.73 +0.25 85% 3.3
4 Bay Area Surf 10721 295+24 232.30 DWLDW -0.43 +0.25 94% 2.8
5 Mustang SC 10613 2311+12 191.90 WLDWW -0.13 -0.03 39% 4.6
6 Placer United 11506 1914+5 151.36 LWWWL +0.34 -0.58 3% 5.9
7 Force 9315 1014-4 101.11 WLLWD +0.25 +0.03 0% 7.1
8 Pleasanton RAGE 10217 1032-22 70.70 LLLLL +0.62 -0.10 0% 8.8
9 Stanislaus Surf 10127 816-8 50.50 LLDLL +0.58 -0.30 0% 8.1
10 COSC 8107 636-30 30.38 LLLLL +0.47 +0.27 0% 10.0
11 Marin FC 100010 355-52 00.00 LLLLL +0.74 +0.09 0% 10.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.74 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.