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Sporting California USA NAVY

ECNL Regional League Boys · Southwest BU14 · 18 teams · Sporting California USA (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 45 minutes ago.
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12th
1-1-2 record · 4 played
1.00 points per game
-5 goal diff · 4–9
LWLDlast 4
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 13.3
-0.29 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 11:00 AM

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Sporting California USA NAVY
12th · 1.00 PPG
at
Pateadores Blue
13th · 0.80 PPG

Portola Springs Community Park, Field A ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.9 for, 2.0 against · 1.30 expected points)

Season so farSporting California USA NAVYPateadores Blue
Position12th13th
Record (W-D-L)1-1-21-1-3
Points per game1.000.80
Goals for / game1.01.6
Goals against / game2.33.2
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)D L W LL L D W L
Biggest win1–0 at Rebels SC3–2 vs Eagles SC
Worst loss0–3 vs LAFC1–5 at Sporting California USA RED
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.72-0.96
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.29+0.01

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Pateadores Blue concede 3.2/game; worst result 1–5 at Sporting California USA RED.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 vs LAFC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 36%; a draw (21%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 11:00 AM at Portola Springs Community Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    CDA Slammers FC Maroon sit 11th on 1.20 PPG; we are on 1.00.

    A point moves us above CDA Slammers FC Maroon on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Pateadores Blue game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sporting California USA NAVY – Pateadores Blue) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.80 PPG		 13th▼ down 1 13th▼ down 1 16th▼ down 4
Win
1.40 PPG		 11th▲ up 1 10th▲ up 2 12th— holds
Draw
1.00 PPG		 12th— holds 12th— holds 14th▼ down 2
Loss
0.80 PPG		 13th▼ down 1 13th▼ down 1 16th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we fall to at least 13th even if every rival loses, and as low as 16th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
13.3 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th 2%
  9. 9th 4%
  10. 10th 7%
  11. 11th 11%
  12. 12th 14%
  13. 13th 15%
  14. 14th 14%
  15. 15th 14%
  16. 16th 10%
  17. 17th 6%
  18. 18th 3%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.53 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 CDA Slammers FC White 3.00 (+2.00) 1st (2.28) 47 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
2 Sporting California USA RED 3.00 (+2.00) 5th (2.04) 47 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
3 San Diego Surf White 2.50 (+1.50) 4th (2.08) 39 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
4 San Diego Surf Blue 2.40 (+1.40) 2nd (2.26) 37 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
5 Beach Futbol Club Gold 2.25 (+1.25) 6th (1.98) 35 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
6 SDSC Surf Blue 2.25 (+1.25) 7th (1.67) 35 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
7 LAFC 2.00 (+1.00) 3rd (2.09) 30 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
8 SDSC Surf Gold 1.50 (+0.50) 8th (1.48) 22 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
9 West Coast FC Navy 1.50 (+0.50) 11th (1.22) 22 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
10 LV Heat Surf 1.43 (+0.43) 9th (1.45) 21 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
11 CDA Slammers FC Maroon 1.20 (+0.20) 10th (1.30) A point next game

How the results connect

8 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Sporting California USA NAVY to Pateadores Blue through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us
2 even
2 favour them
+0.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–2 2–2 2–2 1–0 2–4 2–1 0–3 5–1 1–4 4–1 0–2 5–1 0–3 3–5 2–3 0–2 Sporting California… 12th Pateadores Gold 16th Rebels SC 18th SDSC Surf Gold 8th Legends FC Black 15th LV Heat Surf 10th Beach Futbol Club G… 5th Sporting California… 2nd Eagles SC 14th Pateadores Blue 13th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

8 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 9th 18th Sep 13 Sep 20 Oct 4 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.13 · 1st hardest of 18

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 4
11:00 AM
no score posted		 Eagles SC
14th · 1-0-3 · GD -6		 Home
San Bernardino Soccer Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
43%		 2–1 1.50 1.10 Swing game
Sun Oct 25
11:00 AM		 Pateadores Blue
13th · 1-1-3 · GD -8		 Away far trip
Portola Springs Community Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
36%		 1–2 1.30 1.13 Upside
Sun Nov 1
11:00 AM		 San Diego Surf White
3rd · 3-1-0 · GD +9		 Home
San Bernardino Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
15%		 1–2 0.60 1.06 Upside
Sun Nov 8
01:00 PM		 San Diego Surf Blue
4th · 4-0-1 · GD +15		 Home
Ontario Sports Empire		 ●●●●● Very tough
10%		 1–3 0.43 0.98 Upside
Sun Nov 15
TBD		 CDA Slammers FC White
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +7		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
10%		 0–2 0.44 0.92 Upside
Sun Nov 22
03:30 PM		 SDSC Surf Blue
6th · 3-0-1 · GD +2		 Home
Ontario Sports Empire		 ●●●●○ Tough
26%		 1–2 1.00 0.93 Upside
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 Legends FC Black
15th · 0-2-2 · GD -8		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%		 2–1 1.63 0.99 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
TBD		 Sporting California USA RED
2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +7		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
17%		 1–2 0.68 0.97 Upside
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 West Coast FC Navy
9th · 2-0-2 · GD -3		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
29%		 1–2 1.09 0.97 Upside
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 Legends FC Gold
17th · 0-0-3 · GD -5		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%		 1–1 1.49 1.01 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 Beach Futbol Club Gold
5th · 3-0-1 · GD +8		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
11%		 0–2 0.47 0.98 Upside
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 LV Heat Surf
10th · 3-1-3 · GD -1		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
22%		 1–2 0.84 0.97 Upside
Sun May 9
TBD		 CDA Slammers FC Maroon
11th · 2-0-3 · GD -4		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
36%		 1–1 1.28 0.99 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 CDA Slammers FC White 4400 114+7 123.00 WWWW +0.47 -0.22 82% 2.8
2 Sporting California USA RED 3300 103+7 93.00 WWW -0.77 +0.10 50% 4.4
3 San Diego Surf White 4310 145+9 102.50 DWWW -0.50 +0.06 61% 4.0
4 San Diego Surf Blue 5401 238+15 122.40 WWWLW -0.16 -0.07 87% 2.5
5 Beach Futbol Club Gold 4301 113+8 92.25 WWWL -0.51 +0.10 45% 4.8
6 SDSC Surf Blue 4301 97+2 92.25 LWWW -0.25 +0.05 9% 7.3
7 LAFC 6402 187+11 122.00 WLLWW +0.19 -0.21 64% 3.8
8 SDSC Surf Gold 4202 88+0 61.50 LLWW +0.01 -0.01 1% 8.9
9 West Coast FC Navy 4202 69-3 61.50 WLWL -0.01 +0.03 0% 11.0
10 LV Heat Surf 7313 1718-1 101.43 LLLWW +0.07 -0.07 1% 9.0
11 CDA Slammers FC Maroon 5203 913-4 61.20 WLLWL +0.74 -0.27 0% 10.3
12 Sporting California USA NAVY 4112 49-5 41.00 LWLD -0.29 +0.13 0% 13.3
13 Pateadores Blue 5113 816-8 40.80 LWDLL +0.01 +0.08 0% 13.9
14 Eagles SC 4103 713-6 30.75 LLWL +0.17 +0.01 0% 13.4
15 Legends FC Black 4022 614-8 20.50 LDDL -0.01 +0.08 0% 14.7
16 Pateadores Gold 5023 412-8 20.40 LDLDL +0.00 +0.08 0% 15.7
17 Legends FC Gold 3003 49-5 00.00 LLL +0.34 -0.01 0% 14.1
18 Rebels SC 5005 516-11 00.00 LLLLL +0.16 +0.05 0% 17.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.12 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.