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CDA Slammers FC White

ECNL Regional League Boys · Southwest BU14 · 18 teams · CDA Slammers FC (all teams)

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1st
4-0-0 record · 4 played
3.00 points per game
+7 goal diff · 11–4
WWWWlast 4
82% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.8
+0.47 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 09:00 AM

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CDA Slammers FC White
1st · 3.00 PPG
at
Eagles SC
14th · 0.75 PPG

Pleasant Valley Fields, Field 19 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.0 for, 1.4 against · 2.25 expected points)

Season so farCDA Slammers FC WhiteEagles SC
Position1st14th
Record (W-D-L)4-0-01-0-3
Points per game3.000.75
Goals for / game2.81.8
Goals against / game1.03.3
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless02
Form (recent first)W W W WL W L L
Biggest win4–1 vs West Coast FC Navy5–3 vs Rebels SC
Worst loss—0–4 at San Diego Surf White
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.06-0.79
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.47+0.17

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Eagles SC concede 3.2/game; worst result 0–4 at San Diego Surf White.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 70% chance; likely score 3–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at Pleasant Valley Fields.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Eagles SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (CDA Slammers FC White – Eagles SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Win
3.00 PPG
1st— holds 2nd▼ down 1 1st— holds
Draw
2.60 PPG
2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 2
Loss
2.40 PPG
4th▼ down 3 4th▼ down 3 5th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

30% finish 1st
82% top 4
18% below the top 4
2.8 average finish
  1. 1st 30%
  2. 2nd 23%
  3. 3rd 17%
  4. 4th 13%
  5. 5th 10%
  6. 6th 5%
  7. 7th 2%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

8 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link CDA Slammers FC White to Eagles SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

8 favour us
0 favour them
+3.9 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–1 2–0 3–5 3–1 4–2 2–1 4–0 3–5 3–0 2–1 3–2 5–1 5–3 3–3 4–0 CDA Slammers FC Whi… 1st Beach Futbol Club G… 5th LV Heat Surf 10th LAFC 7th Rebels SC 18th San Diego Surf Blue 4th Pateadores Blue 13th San Diego Surf White 3rd Eagles SC 14th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

8 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 9th 18th Sep 13 Sep 20 Oct 4 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.22 · 17th hardest of 18

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM
Eagles SC
14th · 1-0-3 · GD -6
Away far trip
Pleasant Valley Fields
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
3–1 2.25 2.85 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
11:00 AM
Legends FC Gold
17th · 0-0-3 · GD -5
Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
69%
2–1 2.23 2.75 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
TBD
Sporting California USA RED
2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +7
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
2–1 1.65 2.59 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
TBD
Sporting California USA NAVY
12th · 1-1-2 · GD -5
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
76%
2–0 2.42 2.57 Bank it
Sun Nov 22
TBD
CDA Slammers FC Maroon
11th · 2-0-3 · GD -4
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
2–1 2.04 2.51 Swing game
Thu Dec 17
01:00 PM
Legends FC Black
15th · 0-2-2 · GD -8
Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
3–1 2.36 2.50 Bank it
Sun Mar 14
TBD
SDSC Surf Blue
6th · 3-0-1 · GD +2
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
2–1 2.01 2.45 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
TBD
SDSC Surf Gold
8th · 2-0-2 · GD +0
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
2–1 1.82 2.40 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
09:00 AM
San Diego Surf Blue
4th · 4-0-1 · GD +15
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park
●●●●○ Tough
29%
2–2 1.06 2.30 Upside
Sun Apr 11
TBD
San Diego Surf White
3rd · 3-1-0 · GD +9
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
2–1 1.55 2.24 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
TBD
Rebels SC
18th · 0-0-5 · GD -11
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
85%
3–0 2.63 2.27 Bank it
Sun May 2
TBD
Pateadores Gold
16th · 0-2-3 · GD -8
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
72%
2–0 2.33 2.27 Bank it
Sun May 9
TBD
Pateadores Blue
13th · 1-1-3 · GD -8
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
73%
3–1 2.32 2.28 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 CDA Slammers FC White 4400 114+7 123.00 WWWW +0.47 -0.22 82% 2.8
2 Sporting California USA RED 3300 103+7 93.00 WWW -0.77 +0.10 50% 4.4
3 San Diego Surf White 4310 145+9 102.50 DWWW -0.50 +0.06 61% 4.0
4 San Diego Surf Blue 5401 238+15 122.40 WWWLW -0.16 -0.07 87% 2.5
5 Beach Futbol Club Gold 4301 113+8 92.25 WWWL -0.51 +0.10 45% 4.8
6 SDSC Surf Blue 4301 97+2 92.25 LWWW -0.25 +0.05 9% 7.3
7 LAFC 6402 187+11 122.00 WLLWW +0.19 -0.21 64% 3.8
8 SDSC Surf Gold 4202 88+0 61.50 LLWW +0.01 -0.01 1% 8.9
9 West Coast FC Navy 4202 69-3 61.50 WLWL -0.01 +0.03 0% 11.0
10 LV Heat Surf 7313 1718-1 101.43 LLLWW +0.07 -0.07 1% 9.0
11 CDA Slammers FC Maroon 5203 913-4 61.20 WLLWL +0.74 -0.27 0% 10.3
12 Sporting California USA NAVY 4112 49-5 41.00 LWLD -0.29 +0.13 0% 13.3
13 Pateadores Blue 5113 816-8 40.80 LWDLL +0.01 +0.08 0% 13.9
14 Eagles SC 4103 713-6 30.75 LLWL +0.17 +0.01 0% 13.4
15 Legends FC Black 4022 614-8 20.50 LDDL -0.01 +0.08 0% 14.7
16 Pateadores Gold 5023 412-8 20.40 LDLDL +0.00 +0.08 0% 15.7
17 Legends FC Gold 3003 49-5 00.00 LLL +0.34 -0.01 0% 14.1
18 Rebels SC 5005 516-11 00.00 LLLLL +0.16 +0.05 0% 17.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.12 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.