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Rebels SC

ECNL Regional League Boys · Southwest BU14 · 18 teams · Rebels Soccer Club (all teams)

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18th
0-0-5 record · 5 played
0.00 points per game
-11 goal diff · 5–16
LLLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 17.0
+0.16 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 03:30 PM

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Rebels SC
18th · 0.00 PPG
at
Sporting California USA RED
2nd · 3.00 PPG

San Bernardino Soccer Complex, Field 1 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.1 for, 3.7 against · 0.30 expected points)

Season so farRebels SCSporting California USA RED
Position18th2nd
Record (W-D-L)0-0-53-0-0
Points per game0.003.00
Goals for / game1.03.3
Goals against / game3.21.0
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless30
Form (recent first)L L L L LW W W
Biggest win—5–1 vs Pateadores Blue
Worst loss0–4 vs LAFC—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.33+0.93
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.16-0.77

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Sporting California USA RED score 3.3/game — well above the league's 2.1.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Sporting California USA RED concede only 1.0/game with 1 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–1 vs Sporting California USA NAVY, 0–2 vs Beach Futbol Club Gold, 0–4 vs LAFC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 7%; a draw (10%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Sporting California USA RED have won 3 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 03:30 PM at San Bernardino Soccer Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Legends FC Gold sit 17th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A point moves us above Legends FC Gold on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Sporting California USA RED game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Rebels SC – Sporting California USA RED) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.00 PPG		 18th— holds 18th— holds 18th— holds
Win
0.50 PPG		 16th▲ up 2 16th▲ up 2 17th▲ up 1
Draw
0.17 PPG		 17th▲ up 1 17th▲ up 1 17th▲ up 1
Loss
0.00 PPG		 18th— holds 18th— holds 18th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 18th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
17.0 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th 1%
  13. 13th 2%
  14. 14th 4%
  15. 15th 7%
  16. 16th 11%
  17. 17th 21%
  18. 18th 53%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.12 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 CDA Slammers FC White 3.00 (+3.00) 1st (2.28) 51 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Sporting California USA RED 3.00 (+3.00) 5th (2.04) 51 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
3 San Diego Surf White 2.50 (+2.50) 4th (2.08) 43 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
4 San Diego Surf Blue 2.40 (+2.40) 2nd (2.26) 41 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Beach Futbol Club Gold 2.25 (+2.25) 6th (1.98) 39 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection
6 SDSC Surf Blue 2.25 (+2.25) 7th (1.67) 39 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
7 LAFC 2.00 (+2.00) 3rd (2.09) 34 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
8 SDSC Surf Gold 1.50 (+1.50) 8th (1.48) 26 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
9 West Coast FC Navy 1.50 (+1.50) 11th (1.22) 26 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
10 LV Heat Surf 1.43 (+1.43) 9th (1.45) 25 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
11 CDA Slammers FC Maroon 1.20 (+1.20) 10th (1.30) 21 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
12 Sporting California USA NAVY 1.00 (+1.00) 12th (0.99) 17 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
13 Pateadores Blue 0.80 (+0.80) 14th (0.92) 14 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
14 Eagles SC 0.75 (+0.75) 13th (0.96) 13 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
15 Legends FC Black 0.50 (+0.50) 16th (0.81) Win next game
16 Pateadores Gold 0.40 (+0.40) 17th (0.71) A point next game
17 Legends FC Gold 0.00 (+0.00) 15th (0.88) Already ahead

How the results connect

6 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Rebels SC to Sporting California USA RED through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
6 favour them
-3.2 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–2 3–0 0–2 2–4 3–0 5–1 1–5 0–1 2–2 2–1 3–5 2–3 Rebels SC 18th Beach Futbol Club G… 5th LV Heat Surf 10th Sporting California… 12th Eagles SC 14th Pateadores Gold 16th Pateadores Blue 13th Sporting California… 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

6 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 9th 18th Sep 13 Sep 20 Oct 4 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.05 · 8th hardest of 18

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
03:30 PM		 Sporting California USA RED
2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +7		 Away far trip
San Bernardino Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
7%		 1–3 0.30 0.05 Upside
Sun Nov 1
TBD		 CDA Slammers FC Maroon
11th · 2-0-3 · GD -4		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
19%		 1–2 0.73 0.15 Upside
Sun Nov 8
06:00 PM		 Legends FC Gold
17th · 0-0-3 · GD -5		 Home
El Cajon Valley High School · turf?		 ●●●●○ Tough
33%		 1–2 1.20 0.28 Upside
Sun Nov 15
11:00 AM		 Legends FC Black
15th · 0-2-2 · GD -8		 Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
28%		 1–2 1.04 0.36 Upside
Sun Nov 22
09:00 AM		 San Diego Surf Blue
4th · 4-0-1 · GD +15		 Away far trip
Surf Sports Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
3%		 1–5 0.14 0.34 Upside
Sun Mar 21
05:30 PM		 San Diego Surf White
3rd · 3-1-0 · GD +9		 Home
Monte Vista High School · turf?		 ●●●●● Very tough
9%		 1–3 0.39 0.34 Upside
Sun Apr 4
11:45 AM		 SDSC Surf Gold
8th · 2-0-2 · GD +0		 Home
Monte Vista High School · turf?		 ●●●●● Very tough
21%		 1–2 0.80 0.38 Upside
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 Pateadores Gold
16th · 0-2-3 · GD -8		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
32%		 1–1 1.18 0.44 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 CDA Slammers FC White
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +7		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
6%		 0–3 0.27 0.43 Upside
Sun Apr 25
10:00 AM		 West Coast FC Navy
9th · 2-0-2 · GD -3		 Home
Southwestern College · turf		 ●●●●○ Tough
29%		 1–2 1.07 0.47 Upside
Sun May 2
03:45 PM		 Pateadores Blue
13th · 1-1-3 · GD -8		 Home
Monte Vista High School · turf?		 ●●●●○ Tough
36%		 2–2 1.29 0.53 Upside
Sun May 9
09:00 AM		 SDSC Surf Blue
6th · 3-0-1 · GD +2		 Away far trip
Maranatha Christian School		 ●●●●● Very tough
13%		 1–3 0.52 0.52 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 CDA Slammers FC White 4400 114+7 123.00 WWWW +0.47 -0.22 83% 2.8
2 Sporting California USA RED 3300 103+7 93.00 WWW -0.77 +0.10 52% 4.4
3 San Diego Surf White 4310 145+9 102.50 DWWW -0.50 +0.06 59% 4.1
4 San Diego Surf Blue 5401 238+15 122.40 WWWLW -0.16 -0.07 87% 2.5
5 Beach Futbol Club Gold 4301 113+8 92.25 WWWL -0.51 +0.10 42% 4.8
6 SDSC Surf Blue 4301 97+2 92.25 LWWW -0.25 +0.05 8% 7.3
7 LAFC 6402 187+11 122.00 WLLWW +0.19 -0.21 65% 3.8
8 SDSC Surf Gold 4202 88+0 61.50 LLWW +0.01 -0.01 2% 8.7
9 West Coast FC Navy 4202 69-3 61.50 WLWL -0.01 +0.03 0% 11.1
10 LV Heat Surf 7313 1718-1 101.43 LLLWW +0.07 -0.07 1% 8.9
11 CDA Slammers FC Maroon 5203 913-4 61.20 WLLWL +0.74 -0.27 1% 10.4
12 Sporting California USA NAVY 4112 49-5 41.00 LWLD -0.29 +0.13 0% 13.2
13 Pateadores Blue 5113 816-8 40.80 LWDLL +0.01 +0.08 0% 13.9
14 Eagles SC 4103 713-6 30.75 LLWL +0.17 +0.01 0% 13.3
15 Legends FC Black 4022 614-8 20.50 LDDL -0.01 +0.08 0% 14.9
16 Pateadores Gold 5023 412-8 20.40 LDLDL +0.00 +0.08 0% 15.7
17 Legends FC Gold 3003 49-5 00.00 LLL +0.34 -0.01 0% 14.2
18 Rebels SC 5005 516-11 00.00 LLLLL +0.16 +0.05 0% 17.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.12 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.