TableChase Clubs

LV Heat Surf

ECNL Regional League Boys · Southern Cal BU18/19 · 18 teams · LV Heat Surf SC (all teams)

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18th
0-0-6 record · 6 played
0.00 points per game
-54 goal diff · 1–55
LLLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 18.0
+1.42 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:00 PM

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LV Heat Surf
18th · 0.00 PPG
at
Legends FC - Del Mar
12th · 1.20 PPG

SilverLakes Complex, Field 14 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–4 (expected goals 0.7 for, 5.0 against · 0.07 expected points)

Season so farLV Heat SurfLegends FC - Del Mar
Position18th12th
Record (W-D-L)0-0-61-3-1
Points per game0.001.20
Goals for / game0.21.2
Goals against / game9.21.2
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless51
Form (recent first)L L L L LD W L D D
Biggest win—2–1 at Legends FC
Worst loss0–13 vs San Diego Surf2–3 vs Sporting California USA
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-5.45+0.07
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+1.42+0.22

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Legends FC - Del Mar average 1.2 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 1 of 5.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Hard to break down
    Legends FC - Del Mar concede only 1.2/game with 1 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 5 time(s): 0–7 vs West Coast FC White, 0–12 vs Empire Surf, 0–11 at Pateadores, 0–1 at CDA Slammers FC Black, 0–13 vs San Diego Surf.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 1%; a draw (3%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 02:00 PM at SilverLakes Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Rebels SC Blue sit 17th on 0.20 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A point moves us above Rebels SC Blue on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Legends FC - Del Mar game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LV Heat Surf – Legends FC - Del Mar) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.00 PPG
18th— holds 18th— holds 18th— holds
Win
0.43 PPG
15th▲ up 3 15th▲ up 3 17th▲ up 1
Draw
0.14 PPG
18th— holds 18th— holds 18th— holds
Loss
0.00 PPG
18th— holds 18th— holds 18th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–4 loss we stay 18th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
18.0 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th <1%
  17. 17th 2%
  18. 18th 98%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 1.94 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Empire Surf 3.00 (+3.00) 1st (2.62) 51 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 San Diego Surf 3.00 (+3.00) 2nd (2.43) 51 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 42 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 West Coast FC White 3.00 (+3.00) 3rd (2.07) 51 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 FC Long Beach 2.60 (+2.60) 4th (2.04) 45 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Sporting California USA 2.25 (+2.25) 6th (1.91) 39 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
6 Eagles SC Blue 2.25 (+2.25) 5th (1.99) 39 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
7 Rebels SC White 1.80 (+1.80) 7th (1.87) 31 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
8 Pateadores 1.67 (+1.67) 9th (1.41) 29 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
9 LAFC WHITE 1.40 (+1.40) 8th (1.50) 24 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
10 CDA Slammers FC Black 1.40 (+1.40) 14th (0.96) 24 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
11 Beach Futbol Club Black 1.40 (+1.40) 12th (1.24) 24 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
12 Legends FC - Del Mar 1.20 (+1.20) 11th (1.35) 21 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
13 LA Breakers White 1.00 (+1.00) 10th (1.38) 17 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
14 Legends FC 0.60 (+0.60) 13th (0.98) 11 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
15 LAFC GOLD 0.40 (+0.40) 16th (0.64) A point next game
16 LA Breakers Red 0.20 (+0.20) 15th (0.66) A point next game
17 Rebels SC Blue 0.20 (+0.20) 17th (0.60) A point next game

How the results connect

10 chains · 12 teams

Paths of results that link LV Heat Surf to Legends FC - Del Mar through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
10 favour them
-8.2 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–1 0–3 1–1 0–12 8–0 0–4 1–1 0–7 2–1 1–2 0–13 6–1 1–11 1–0 0–0 3–1 5–2 0–1 0–11 0–3 LV Heat Surf 18th CDA Slammers FC Bla… 10th Empire Surf 1st West Coast FC White 3rd San Diego Surf 2nd Rebels SC White 7th Pateadores 8th Beach Futbol Club B… 11th FC Long Beach 4th Legends FC 14th LAFC WHITE 9th Legends FC - Del Mar 12th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 9th 18th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.18 · 15th hardest of 18

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
02:00 PM
Legends FC - Del Mar
12th · 1-3-1 · GD +0
Away far trip
SilverLakes Complex
●●●●● Very tough
1%
0–4 0.07 0.01 Upside
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM
Rebels SC Blue
17th · 0-1-4 · GD -15
Away far trip
El Cajon Valley High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
4%
1–4 0.20 0.03 Upside
Sat Nov 14
11:00 AM
Beach Futbol Club Black
11th · 2-1-2 · GD -6
Home
Heritage Park Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
3%
1–5 0.12 0.04 Upside
Sat Nov 21
11:00 AM
LAFC GOLD
15th · 0-2-3 · GD -11
Home
Heritage Park Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
8%
1–3 0.34 0.07 Upside
Sat Mar 13
TBD
Eagles SC Blue
6th · 3-0-1 · GD +8
Home
●●●●● Very tough
0%
1–9 0.01 0.07 Upside
Sat Mar 20
TBD
Sporting California USA
5th · 3-0-1 · GD +10
Home
●●●●● Very tough
0%
1–9 0.01 0.06 Upside
Sat Apr 3
TBD
LAFC WHITE
9th · 2-1-2 · GD +1
Away
●●●●● Very tough
1%
0–4 0.07 0.06 Upside
Sun Apr 4
TBD
LA Breakers Red
16th · 0-1-4 · GD -13
Away
●●●●● Very tough
5%
1–4 0.22 0.07 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD
Legends FC
14th · 1-0-4 · GD -8
Home
●●●●● Very tough
3%
1–5 0.16 0.08 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD
LA Breakers White
13th · 1-0-2 · GD -1
Away
●●●●● Very tough
1%
0–6 0.04 0.08 Upside
Sun Apr 25
11:00 AM
FC Long Beach
4th · 4-1-0 · GD +9
Away far trip
Millikan High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
0%
0–6 0.01 0.07 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Empire Surf 5500 343+31 153.00 WWWWW -1.55 +0.48 99% 1.4
2 San Diego Surf 3300 262+24 93.00 WWW -2.50 +0.40 95% 2.2
3 West Coast FC White 3300 121+11 93.00 WWW -2.44 +0.53 54% 4.5
4 FC Long Beach 5410 123+9 132.60 DWWWW -0.23 +0.10 49% 4.7
5 Sporting California USA 4301 2010+10 92.25 WWLW -0.27 +0.07 31% 5.6
6 Eagles SC Blue 4301 1810+8 92.25 LWWW +0.30 -0.10 44% 5.0
7 Rebels SC White 5302 176+11 91.80 WWLLW -0.72 +0.23 25% 5.9
8 Pateadores 6312 1913+6 101.67 DWWLL -1.06 +0.69 0% 9.8
9 LAFC WHITE 5212 54+1 71.40 LLWDW +0.61 -0.20 2% 8.9
10 CDA Slammers FC Black 5212 710-3 71.40 LLWWD -1.61 +0.81 0% 13.5
11 Beach Futbol Club Black 5212 1016-6 71.40 WDWLL +0.95 -0.19 0% 11.2
12 Legends FC - Del Mar 5131 66+0 61.20 DDLWD +0.22 -0.01 1% 10.1
13 LA Breakers White 3102 56-1 31.00 LWL +0.87 -0.10 1% 10.1
14 Legends FC 5104 816-8 30.60 LWLLL +0.99 -0.23 0% 13.1
15 LAFC GOLD 5023 516-11 20.40 DLLLD +0.10 +0.17 0% 15.6
16 LA Breakers Red 5014 417-13 10.20 LDLLL +0.80 -0.13 0% 15.5
17 Rebels SC Blue 5014 621-15 10.20 DLLLL +0.38 +0.10 0% 15.9
18 LV Heat Surf 6006 155-54 00.00 LLLLL +1.42 -0.18 0% 18.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.45 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.