TableChase Clubs

LAFC WHITE

ECNL Regional League Boys · Southern Cal BU18/19 · 18 teams · LAFC So Cal (all teams)

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9th
2-1-2 record · 5 played
1.40 points per game
+1 goal diff · 5–4
LLWDWlast 5
1% chance of top 4 · expected finish 9.0
+0.61 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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LAFC WHITE
9th · 1.40 PPG
vs
LAFC GOLD
15th · 0.40 PPG

Oak Park High School, Stadium ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.1 for, 0.8 against · 2.18 expected points)

Season so farLAFC WHITELAFC GOLD
Position9th15th
Record (W-D-L)2-1-20-2-3
Points per game1.400.40
Goals for / game1.01.0
Goals against / game0.83.2
Clean sheets30
Held scoreless21
Form (recent first)W D W L LD L L L D
Biggest win3–0 vs Pateadores—
Worst loss1–3 vs Empire Surf0–6 at Empire Surf
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.23-1.36
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.61+0.10

Common opponents: Empire Surf — we 1–3; they 0–6. Pateadores — we 3–0; they 1–3.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    LAFC GOLD average 1.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 1 of 5.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–1 at Rebels SC White, 0–0 vs Legends FC - Del Mar.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 66% / draw 20% / loss 14%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the LAFC GOLD game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LAFC WHITE – LAFC GOLD) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.67 PPG
9th— holds 10th▼ down 1 11th▼ down 2
Win
1.67 PPG
9th— holds 10th▼ down 1 11th▼ down 2
Draw
1.33 PPG
11th▼ down 2 10th▼ down 1 13th▼ down 4
Loss
1.17 PPG
12th▼ down 3 11th▼ down 2 13th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 7th if every rival drops points, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
1% top 4
99% below the top 4
9.0 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th 3%
  6. 6th 6%
  7. 7th 10%
  8. 8th 22%
  9. 9th 21%
  10. 10th 15%
  11. 11th 11%
  12. 12th 8%
  13. 13th 2%
  14. 14th 1%
  15. 15th <1%
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.53 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Empire Surf 3.00 (+1.60) 1st (2.62) 44 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 San Diego Surf 3.00 (+1.60) 2nd (2.43) 44 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
3 West Coast FC White 3.00 (+1.60) 3rd (2.07) 44 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
4 FC Long Beach 2.60 (+1.20) 4th (2.04) 38 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
5 Sporting California USA 2.25 (+0.85) 6th (1.91) 32 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
6 Eagles SC Blue 2.25 (+0.85) 5th (1.99) 32 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
7 Rebels SC White 1.80 (+0.40) 7th (1.87) 24 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
8 Pateadores 1.67 (+0.27) 9th (1.41) 22 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection

How the results connect

6 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link LAFC WHITE to LAFC GOLD through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us
1 favour them
+3.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–3 6–0 3–0 3–1 1–0 1–4 2–2 2–2 0–0 2–1 4–1 5–2 LAFC WHITE 9th Empire Surf 1st Pateadores 8th LA Breakers Red 16th Legends FC - Del Mar 12th CDA Slammers FC Bla… 10th Legends FC 14th LAFC GOLD 15th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

6 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 9th 18th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.20 · 17th hardest of 18

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM
LAFC GOLD
15th · 0-2-3 · GD -11
Home
Oak Park High School · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
2–0 2.18 1.53 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
11:00 AM
Rebels SC Blue
17th · 0-1-4 · GD -15
Away far trip
El Cajon Valley High School · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
2–1 2.06 1.61 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
09:00 AM
Beach Futbol Club Black
11th · 2-1-2 · GD -6
Away far trip
El Camino College · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
1–1 1.65 1.61 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
02:30 PM
West Coast FC White
3rd · 3-0-0 · GD +11
Home
Oak Park High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–1 1.05 1.55 Upside
Sat Nov 21
04:00 PM
CDA Slammers FC Black
10th · 2-1-2 · GD -3
Home
Alemany High School · turf
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
1–0 1.92 1.59 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
11:00 AM
FC Long Beach
4th · 4-1-0 · GD +9
Away far trip
Millikan High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
22%
0–1 0.93 1.53 Upside
Sat Mar 20
TBD
LA Breakers White
13th · 1-0-2 · GD -1
Away
●●●●○ Tough
37%
1–1 1.38 1.52 Upside
Sat Apr 3
TBD
LV Heat Surf
18th · 0-0-6 · GD -54
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
96%
4–0 2.90 1.62 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
TBD
Sporting California USA
5th · 3-0-1 · GD +10
Home
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–2 1.24 1.59 Upside
Sat Apr 17
11:00 AM
San Diego Surf
2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +24
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park
●●●●● Very tough
11%
1–2 0.46 1.52 Upside
Sat Apr 24
01:00 PM
Legends FC
14th · 1-0-4 · GD -8
Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
1–1 1.71 1.53 Swing game
Sat May 8
TBD
Eagles SC Blue
6th · 3-0-1 · GD +8
Away
●●●●● Very tough
25%
1–2 0.95 1.50 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Empire Surf 5500 343+31 153.00 WWWWW -1.55 +0.48 99% 1.4
2 San Diego Surf 3300 262+24 93.00 WWW -2.50 +0.40 95% 2.2
3 West Coast FC White 3300 121+11 93.00 WWW -2.44 +0.53 57% 4.4
4 FC Long Beach 5410 123+9 132.60 DWWWW -0.23 +0.10 50% 4.7
5 Sporting California USA 4301 2010+10 92.25 WWLW -0.27 +0.07 31% 5.5
6 Eagles SC Blue 4301 1810+8 92.25 LWWW +0.30 -0.10 42% 5.0
7 Rebels SC White 5302 176+11 91.80 WWLLW -0.72 +0.23 24% 5.9
8 Pateadores 6312 1913+6 101.67 DWWLL -1.06 +0.69 0% 9.8
9 LAFC WHITE 5212 54+1 71.40 LLWDW +0.61 -0.20 1% 9.0
10 CDA Slammers FC Black 5212 710-3 71.40 LLWWD -1.61 +0.81 0% 13.5
11 Beach Futbol Club Black 5212 1016-6 71.40 WDWLL +0.95 -0.19 0% 11.2
12 Legends FC - Del Mar 5131 66+0 61.20 DDLWD +0.22 -0.01 0% 10.2
13 LA Breakers White 3102 56-1 31.00 LWL +0.87 -0.10 1% 10.0
14 Legends FC 5104 816-8 30.60 LWLLL +0.99 -0.23 0% 13.1
15 LAFC GOLD 5023 516-11 20.40 DLLLD +0.10 +0.17 0% 15.7
16 LA Breakers Red 5014 417-13 10.20 LDLLL +0.80 -0.13 0% 15.5
17 Rebels SC Blue 5014 621-15 10.20 DLLLL +0.38 +0.10 0% 15.9
18 LV Heat Surf 6006 155-54 00.00 LLLLL +1.42 -0.18 0% 18.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.45 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.