TableChase Clubs

FC Long Beach

ECNL Regional League Boys · Southern Cal BU18/19 · 18 teams · FC Long Beach Blues (all teams)

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4th
4-1-0 record · 5 played
2.60 points per game
+9 goal diff · 12–3
DWWWWlast 5
50% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.7
-0.23 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 06:30 PM

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FC Long Beach
4th · 2.60 PPG
at
West Coast FC White
3rd · 3.00 PPG

Orange County Great Park, Field 11 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.4 for, 1.8 against · 1.17 expected points)

Season so farFC Long BeachWest Coast FC White
Position4th3rd
Record (W-D-L)4-1-03-0-0
Points per game2.603.00
Goals for / game2.44.0
Goals against / game0.60.3
Clean sheets32
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W W W DW W W
Biggest win4–0 vs CDA Slammers FC Black7–0 at LV Heat Surf
Worst loss——
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.03+1.35
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.23-2.44

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    West Coast FC White score 4.0/game — well above the league's 2.5.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    West Coast FC White concede only 0.3/game with 2 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 31%; a draw (23%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    West Coast FC White have won 3 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 06:30 PM at Orange County Great Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the West Coast FC White game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Long Beach – West Coast FC White) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 2.33 PPG
4th— holds 4th— holds 6th▼ down 2
Win
2.67 PPG
3rd▲ up 1 3rd▲ up 1 3rd▲ up 1
Draw
2.33 PPG
4th— holds 4th— holds 6th▼ down 2
Loss
2.17 PPG
6th▼ down 2 4th— holds 6th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

1% finish 1st
50% top 4
50% below the top 4
4.7 average finish
  1. 1st 1%
  2. 2nd 8%
  3. 3rd 20%
  4. 4th 21%
  5. 5th 20%
  6. 6th 15%
  7. 7th 10%
  8. 8th 4%
  9. 9th 1%
  10. 10th 1%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.88 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Empire Surf 3.00 (+0.40) 1st (2.62) 38 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
2 San Diego Surf 3.00 (+0.40) 2nd (2.43) 38 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
3 West Coast FC White 3.00 (+0.40) 3rd (2.07) 38 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection

How the results connect

4 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link FC Long Beach to West Coast FC White through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
1 even
1 favour them
+1.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–1 2–1 1–2 4–0 1–0 0–7 1–0 11–1 4–1 0–3 FC Long Beach 4th Legends FC - Del Mar 12th CDA Slammers FC Bla… 10th Rebels SC White 7th Legends FC 14th LV Heat Surf 18th LA Breakers Red 16th West Coast FC White 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

4 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 9th 18th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.10 · 8th hardest of 18

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
06:30 PM
West Coast FC White
3rd · 3-0-0 · GD +11
Away far trip
Orange County Great Park
●●●●○ Tough
31%
1–1 1.17 2.36 Upside
Sat Oct 31
09:00 AM
Eagles SC Blue
6th · 3-0-1 · GD +8
Away far trip
Pleasant Valley Fields
●●●●○ Tough
40%
2–2 1.38 2.22 Upside
Sat Nov 7
08:00 AM
Pateadores
8th · 3-1-2 · GD +6
Home
Cabrillo High School · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
2–1 2.04 2.20 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
05:15 PM
San Diego Surf
2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +24
Home
Cabrillo High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–2 0.99 2.06 Upside
Sat Nov 21
07:00 PM
Beach Futbol Club Black
11th · 2-1-2 · GD -6
Away
Long Beach City College - Liberal Arts Campus
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
2–1 2.13 2.07 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
11:00 AM
LAFC WHITE
9th · 2-1-2 · GD +1
Home
Millikan High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
1–0 1.81 2.05 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
09:00 AM
Legends FC
14th · 1-0-4 · GD -8
Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
2–1 2.17 2.06 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
TBD
LA Breakers Red
16th · 0-1-4 · GD -13
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
76%
2–0 2.43 2.09 Bank it
Sun Apr 18
09:00 AM
Empire Surf
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +31
Away far trip
Galway Downs
●●●●● Very tough
15%
1–2 0.61 1.98 Upside
Sun Apr 25
11:00 AM
LV Heat Surf
18th · 0-0-6 · GD -54
Home
Millikan High School · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
99%
6–0 2.98 2.05 Bank it
Sat May 1
09:00 AM
LAFC GOLD
15th · 0-2-3 · GD -11
Home
Millikan High School · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
82%
3–0 2.57 2.08 Bank it
Sat May 8
TBD
Sporting California USA
5th · 3-0-1 · GD +10
Away
●●●●○ Tough
41%
2–2 1.41 2.04 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Empire Surf 5500 343+31 153.00 WWWWW -1.55 +0.48 99% 1.4
2 San Diego Surf 3300 262+24 93.00 WWW -2.50 +0.40 96% 2.2
3 West Coast FC White 3300 121+11 93.00 WWW -2.44 +0.53 53% 4.5
4 FC Long Beach 5410 123+9 132.60 DWWWW -0.23 +0.10 50% 4.7
5 Sporting California USA 4301 2010+10 92.25 WWLW -0.27 +0.07 33% 5.5
6 Eagles SC Blue 4301 1810+8 92.25 LWWW +0.30 -0.10 43% 5.0
7 Rebels SC White 5302 176+11 91.80 WWLLW -0.72 +0.23 22% 5.9
8 Pateadores 6312 1913+6 101.67 DWWLL -1.06 +0.69 1% 9.7
9 LAFC WHITE 5212 54+1 71.40 LLWDW +0.61 -0.20 1% 9.0
10 CDA Slammers FC Black 5212 710-3 71.40 LLWWD -1.61 +0.81 0% 13.5
11 Beach Futbol Club Black 5212 1016-6 71.40 WDWLL +0.95 -0.19 0% 11.3
12 Legends FC - Del Mar 5131 66+0 61.20 DDLWD +0.22 -0.01 0% 10.1
13 LA Breakers White 3102 56-1 31.00 LWL +0.87 -0.10 1% 10.0
14 Legends FC 5104 816-8 30.60 LWLLL +0.99 -0.23 0% 13.2
15 LAFC GOLD 5023 516-11 20.40 DLLLD +0.10 +0.17 0% 15.7
16 LA Breakers Red 5014 417-13 10.20 LDLLL +0.80 -0.13 0% 15.5
17 Rebels SC Blue 5014 621-15 10.20 DLLLL +0.38 +0.10 0% 15.8
18 LV Heat Surf 6006 155-54 00.00 LLLLL +1.42 -0.18 0% 18.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.45 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.