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Legends FC

ECNL Regional League Boys · Southern Cal BU18/19 · 18 teams · Legends FC (CA) (all teams)

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14th
1-0-4 record · 5 played
0.60 points per game
-8 goal diff · 8–16
LWLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 13.1
+0.99 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 09:00 AM

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Legends FC
14th · 0.60 PPG
vs
Pateadores
8th · 1.67 PPG

Silverlakes Complex, Field 20 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.2 for, 2.9 against · 1.04 expected points)

Season so farLegends FCPateadores
Position14th8th
Record (W-D-L)1-0-43-1-2
Points per game0.601.67
Goals for / game1.63.2
Goals against / game3.22.2
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless12
Form (recent first)L L L W LL L W W D
Biggest win4–1 at LAFC GOLD11–0 vs LV Heat Surf
Worst loss0–6 vs Sporting California USA0–6 vs Eagles SC Blue
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.76+0.26
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.99-1.06

Common opponents: LAFC GOLD — we 4–1; they 3–1.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–6 vs Sporting California USA.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 29%; a draw (17%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    LA Breakers White sit 13th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.60.

    A win moves us above LA Breakers White on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Pateadores game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Legends FC – Pateadores) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 0.67 PPG
14th— holds 14th— holds 15th▼ down 1
Win
1.00 PPG
14th— holds 14th— holds 14th— holds
Draw
0.67 PPG
14th— holds 14th— holds 15th▼ down 1
Loss
0.50 PPG
14th— holds 14th— holds 17th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 14th even if every rival loses, and as low as 15th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
13.1 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th 3%
  10. 10th 5%
  11. 11th 8%
  12. 12th 14%
  13. 13th 25%
  14. 14th 24%
  15. 15th 13%
  16. 16th 5%
  17. 17th 2%
  18. 18th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.29 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Empire Surf 3.00 (+2.40) 1st (2.62) 48 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 42 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 San Diego Surf 3.00 (+2.40) 2nd (2.43) 48 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 West Coast FC White 3.00 (+2.40) 3rd (2.07) 48 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
4 FC Long Beach 2.60 (+2.00) 4th (2.04) 42 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
5 Sporting California USA 2.25 (+1.65) 6th (1.91) 36 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
6 Eagles SC Blue 2.25 (+1.65) 5th (1.99) 36 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
7 Rebels SC White 1.80 (+1.20) 7th (1.87) 28 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
8 Pateadores 1.67 (+1.07) 9th (1.41) 26 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
9 LAFC WHITE 1.40 (+0.80) 8th (1.50) 21 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
10 CDA Slammers FC Black 1.40 (+0.80) 14th (0.96) 21 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection
11 Beach Futbol Club Black 1.40 (+0.80) 12th (1.24) 21 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
12 Legends FC - Del Mar 1.20 (+0.60) 11th (1.35) 18 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
13 LA Breakers White 1.00 (+0.40) 10th (1.38) Win next game

How the results connect

8 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link Legends FC to Pateadores through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us
3 favour them
+0.0 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
4–1 1–3 2–5 6–0 0–6 6–7 6–0 3–1 3–0 12–0 0–11 1–2 0–0 1–2 3–0 2–2 7–0 Legends FC 14th LAFC GOLD 15th Empire Surf 1st Sporting California… 5th Legends FC - Del Mar 12th West Coast FC White 3rd Eagles SC Blue 6th LAFC WHITE 9th LV Heat Surf 18th LA Breakers Red 16th Pateadores 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

8 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 9th 18th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.23 · 18th hardest of 18

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 3
06:00 PM
no score posted
Rebels SC Blue
17th · 0-1-4 · GD -15
Away far trip
Monte Vista High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
2–2 1.71 0.78 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
09:00 AM
Pateadores
8th · 3-1-2 · GD +6
Home
Silverlakes Complex
●●●●○ Tough
29%
2–2 1.04 0.82 Upside
Sat Nov 7
08:30 AM
Rebels SC White
7th · 3-0-2 · GD +11
Away far trip
Monte Vista High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
10%
1–3 0.41 0.77 Upside
Sat Nov 14
01:00 PM
CDA Slammers FC Black
10th · 2-1-2 · GD -3
Home
Silverlakes Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
2–1 1.58 0.86 Swing game
Sat Nov 21
11:00 AM
San Diego Surf
2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +24
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park
●●●●● Very tough
2%
1–5 0.11 0.79 Upside
Sat Mar 13
TBD
LA Breakers Red
16th · 0-1-4 · GD -13
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
2–1 1.67 0.87 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
09:00 AM
FC Long Beach
4th · 4-1-0 · GD +9
Home
Silverlakes Complex
●●●●● Very tough
16%
1–2 0.66 0.85 Upside
Sat Apr 10
TBD
LA Breakers White
13th · 1-0-2 · GD -1
Away
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–2 0.88 0.85 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD
LV Heat Surf
18th · 0-0-6 · GD -54
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
91%
5–1 2.79 0.99 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
01:00 PM
LAFC WHITE
9th · 2-1-2 · GD +1
Home
Silverlakes Complex
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–1 1.05 0.99 Upside
Sat May 1
09:00 AM
Eagles SC Blue
6th · 3-0-1 · GD +8
Home
Silverlakes Complex
●●●●● Very tough
17%
2–3 0.63 0.97 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD
Beach Futbol Club Black
11th · 2-1-2 · GD -6
Away
●●●●○ Tough
32%
2–2 1.15 0.98 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Empire Surf 5500 343+31 153.00 WWWWW -1.55 +0.48 99% 1.4
2 San Diego Surf 3300 262+24 93.00 WWW -2.50 +0.40 95% 2.2
3 West Coast FC White 3300 121+11 93.00 WWW -2.44 +0.53 54% 4.5
4 FC Long Beach 5410 123+9 132.60 DWWWW -0.23 +0.10 49% 4.7
5 Sporting California USA 4301 2010+10 92.25 WWLW -0.27 +0.07 31% 5.6
6 Eagles SC Blue 4301 1810+8 92.25 LWWW +0.30 -0.10 44% 5.0
7 Rebels SC White 5302 176+11 91.80 WWLLW -0.72 +0.23 25% 5.9
8 Pateadores 6312 1913+6 101.67 DWWLL -1.06 +0.69 0% 9.8
9 LAFC WHITE 5212 54+1 71.40 LLWDW +0.61 -0.20 2% 8.9
10 CDA Slammers FC Black 5212 710-3 71.40 LLWWD -1.61 +0.81 0% 13.5
11 Beach Futbol Club Black 5212 1016-6 71.40 WDWLL +0.95 -0.19 0% 11.2
12 Legends FC - Del Mar 5131 66+0 61.20 DDLWD +0.22 -0.01 1% 10.1
13 LA Breakers White 3102 56-1 31.00 LWL +0.87 -0.10 1% 10.1
14 Legends FC 5104 816-8 30.60 LWLLL +0.99 -0.23 0% 13.1
15 LAFC GOLD 5023 516-11 20.40 DLLLD +0.10 +0.17 0% 15.6
16 LA Breakers Red 5014 417-13 10.20 LDLLL +0.80 -0.13 0% 15.5
17 Rebels SC Blue 5014 621-15 10.20 DLLLL +0.38 +0.10 0% 15.9
18 LV Heat Surf 6006 155-54 00.00 LLLLL +1.42 -0.18 0% 18.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.45 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.