TableChase Clubs

West Coast FC White

ECNL Regional League Boys · Southern Cal BU18/19 · 18 teams · West Coast F.C. (all teams)

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3rd
3-0-0 record · 3 played
3.00 points per game
+11 goal diff · 12–1
WWWlast 3
54% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.6
-2.44 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 06:30 PM

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West Coast FC White
3rd · 3.00 PPG
vs
FC Long Beach
4th · 2.60 PPG

Orange County Great Park, Field 11 ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.8 for, 1.4 against · 1.60 expected points)

Season so farWest Coast FC WhiteFC Long Beach
Position3rd4th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-04-1-0
Points per game3.002.60
Goals for / game4.02.4
Goals against / game0.30.6
Clean sheets23
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W WW W W W D
Biggest win7–0 at LV Heat Surf4–0 vs CDA Slammers FC Black
Worst loss——
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.35+1.03
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-2.44-0.23

Game plan

  • Hard to break down
    FC Long Beach concede only 0.6/game with 3 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 46% / draw 23% / loss 31%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • They arrive in form
    FC Long Beach have won 4 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • What a win does
    San Diego Surf sit 2nd on 3.00 PPG; we are on 3.00.

    A win moves us above San Diego Surf on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Long Beach game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (West Coast FC White – FC Long Beach) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 2.50 PPG
3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Win
3.00 PPG
3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Draw
2.50 PPG
3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Loss
2.25 PPG
5th▼ down 2 4th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

2% finish 1st
54% top 4
46% below the top 4
4.6 average finish
  1. 1st 2%
  2. 2nd 10%
  3. 3rd 23%
  4. 4th 19%
  5. 5th 16%
  6. 6th 13%
  7. 7th 9%
  8. 8th 4%
  9. 9th 2%
  10. 10th 1%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th <1%
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Empire Surf 3.00 (+0.00) 1st (2.62) Win next game
2 San Diego Surf 3.00 (+0.00) 2nd (2.43) Win next game

How the results connect

4 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link West Coast FC White to FC Long Beach through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
1 even
2 favour them
-1.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–1 1–2 1–1 7–0 0–1 0–4 3–0 1–4 1–11 0–1 West Coast FC White 3rd Legends FC 14th LV Heat Surf 18th LA Breakers Red 16th Legends FC - Del Mar 12th CDA Slammers FC Bla… 10th Rebels SC White 7th FC Long Beach 4th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

4 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 9th 18th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.53 · 3rd hardest of 18

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 3
06:30 PM
no score posted
Beach Futbol Club Black
11th · 2-1-2 · GD -6
Home
Lake Forest Sports Park
●○○○○ Favorable
79%
3–1 2.49 2.87 Bank it
Sat Oct 24
06:30 PM
FC Long Beach
4th · 4-1-0 · GD +9
Home
Orange County Great Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
1–1 1.60 2.62 Swing game
Sun Oct 25
11:00 AM
LA Breakers White
13th · 1-0-2 · GD -1
Home
Orange County Great Park
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
2–1 2.20 2.55 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
10:45 AM
LAFC GOLD
15th · 0-2-3 · GD -11
Away far trip
Oak Park High School · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
80%
3–1 2.51 2.54 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
08:30 AM
Eagles SC Blue
6th · 3-0-1 · GD +8
Home
Orange County Great Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
2–2 1.83 2.45 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
02:30 PM
LAFC WHITE
9th · 2-1-2 · GD +1
Away far trip
Oak Park High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
1–1 1.70 2.37 Swing game
Sat Nov 21
08:00 AM
Sporting California USA
5th · 3-0-1 · GD +10
Away far trip
San Bernardino Soccer Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
2–2 1.53 2.29 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
TBD
Empire Surf
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +31
Home
●●●●● Very tough
24%
1–2 0.90 2.16 Upside
Sat Mar 20
TBD
San Diego Surf
2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +24
Home
●●●●○ Tough
30%
2–2 1.07 2.07 Upside
Sat Apr 10
04:00 PM
Rebels SC White
7th · 3-0-2 · GD +11
Away far trip
Southwestern College · turf
●●●●○ Tough
39%
1–2 1.37 2.02 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD
CDA Slammers FC Black
10th · 2-1-2 · GD -3
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
2–0 2.46 2.05 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
05:45 PM
Rebels SC Blue
17th · 0-1-4 · GD -15
Away far trip
Southwestern College · turf
●○○○○ Favorable
84%
3–1 2.60 2.08 Bank it
Sat May 1
TBD
Legends FC - Del Mar
12th · 1-3-1 · GD +0
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
2–1 2.07 2.08 Swing game
Sat May 8
TBD
Pateadores
8th · 3-1-2 · GD +6
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%
2–1 1.89 2.07 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Empire Surf 5500 343+31 153.00 WWWWW -1.55 +0.48 100% 1.4
2 San Diego Surf 3300 262+24 93.00 WWW -2.50 +0.40 95% 2.2
3 West Coast FC White 3300 121+11 93.00 WWW -2.44 +0.53 54% 4.6
4 FC Long Beach 5410 123+9 132.60 DWWWW -0.23 +0.10 47% 4.7
5 Sporting California USA 4301 2010+10 92.25 WWLW -0.27 +0.07 32% 5.6
6 Eagles SC Blue 4301 1810+8 92.25 LWWW +0.30 -0.10 44% 4.9
7 Rebels SC White 5302 176+11 91.80 WWLLW -0.72 +0.23 26% 5.9
8 Pateadores 6312 1913+6 101.67 DWWLL -1.06 +0.69 1% 9.8
9 LAFC WHITE 5212 54+1 71.40 LLWDW +0.61 -0.20 2% 9.0
10 CDA Slammers FC Black 5212 710-3 71.40 LLWWD -1.61 +0.81 0% 13.4
11 Beach Futbol Club Black 5212 1016-6 71.40 WDWLL +0.95 -0.19 0% 11.2
12 Legends FC - Del Mar 5131 66+0 61.20 DDLWD +0.22 -0.01 0% 10.2
13 LA Breakers White 3102 56-1 31.00 LWL +0.87 -0.10 0% 10.0
14 Legends FC 5104 816-8 30.60 LWLLL +0.99 -0.23 0% 13.2
15 LAFC GOLD 5023 516-11 20.40 DLLLD +0.10 +0.17 0% 15.7
16 LA Breakers Red 5014 417-13 10.20 LDLLL +0.80 -0.13 0% 15.5
17 Rebels SC Blue 5014 621-15 10.20 DLLLL +0.38 +0.10 0% 15.9
18 LV Heat Surf 6006 155-54 00.00 LLLLL +1.42 -0.18 0% 18.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.45 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.