San Diego Surf
ECNL Regional League Boys · Southern Cal BU17 · 17 teams · San Diego Surf Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 31, 01:00 PM
San Bernardino Soccer Complex, Field 3 ↗ far trip
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 0–5 (expected goals 1.0 for, 5.7 against · 0.07 expected points)
| Season so far | San Diego Surf | Sporting California USA |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 17th | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-3 | 3-0-0 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.3 | 5.7 |
| Goals against / game | 4.3 | 0.7 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L | W W W |
| Biggest win | — | 7–1 at Legends FC - Del Mar |
| Worst loss | 0–7 vs LA Breakers Red | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.94 | +2.28 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.12 | -0.92 |
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Sporting California USA score 5.7/game — well above the league's 2.7.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Hard to break down
Sporting California USA concede only 0.7/game with 1 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–7 vs LA Breakers Red, 0–3 at LV Heat Surf.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 1%; a draw (3%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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They arrive in form
Sporting California USA have won 3 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
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Away game
Kickoff 01:00 PM at San Bernardino Soccer Complex.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
West Coast FC White sit 16th on 0.33 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above West Coast FC White on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Sporting California USA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (San Diego Surf – Sporting California USA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.00 PPG |
17th— holds | 17th— holds | 17th— holds |
| Win 0.75 PPG |
13th▲ up 4 | 13th▲ up 4 | 16th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 0.25 PPG |
17th— holds | 17th— holds | 17th— holds |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
17th— holds | 17th— holds | 17th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–5 loss we stay 17th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th <1%
- 10th 1%
- 11th 1%
- 12th 3%
- 13th 5%
- 14th 7%
- 15th 15%
- 16th 25%
- 17th 42%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.44 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Empire Surf | 3.00 (+3.00) | 1st (2.75) | 48 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Sporting California USA | 3.00 (+3.00) | 3rd (2.36) | 48 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection |
| 3 | Pateadores | 3.00 (+3.00) | 2nd (2.39) | 48 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection |
| 4 | LA Breakers Red | 2.25 (+2.25) | 4th (2.33) | 36 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection |
| 5 | CDA Slammers FC Black | 2.25 (+2.25) | 5th (2.03) | 36 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection |
| 6 | Beach Futbol Club Black | 2.00 (+2.00) | 6th (1.77) | 32 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection |
| 7 | LA Breakers White | 2.00 (+2.00) | 7th (1.69) | 32 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 8 | Rebels SC White | 1.50 (+1.50) | 9th (1.25) | 24 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 9 | LAFC GOLD | 1.20 (+1.20) | 8th (1.40) | 20 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 10 | Legends FC - Del Mar | 1.00 (+1.00) | 13th (0.89) | 16 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection |
| 11 | FC Long Beach | 0.80 (+0.80) | 12th (0.90) | 13 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection |
| 12 | Rebels SC Blue | 0.75 (+0.75) | 10th (1.15) | Win next game |
| 13 | LAFC WHITE | 0.75 (+0.75) | 11th (0.93) | Win next game |
| 14 | LV Heat Surf | 0.67 (+0.67) | 16th (0.56) | A point next game |
| 15 | Legends FC | 0.60 (+0.60) | 14th (0.88) | A point next game |
| 16 | West Coast FC White | 0.33 (+0.33) | 15th (0.74) | A point next game |
How the results connect
2 chains · 5 teams
Paths of results that link San Diego Surf to Sporting California USA through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.19 · 5th hardest of 17
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 31 01:00 PM |
Sporting California USA 2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +15 |
Away far trip
San Bernardino Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–5 | 0.07 | 0.02 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 01:00 PM |
LAFC GOLD 9th · 2-0-3 · GD -3 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–2 | 0.82 | 0.18 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 01:30 PM |
FC Long Beach 11th · 1-1-3 · GD -10 |
Away far trip
Cabrillo High School · turf? |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–2 | 0.87 | 0.29 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 01:00 PM |
Legends FC 15th · 1-0-4 · GD -10 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
1–2 | 1.08 | 0.41 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
CDA Slammers FC Black 5th · 3-0-1 · GD +14 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
1–5 | 0.12 | 0.37 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
West Coast FC White 16th · 0-1-2 · GD -9 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
1–2 | 0.89 | 0.43 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 01:00 PM |
Legends FC - Del Mar 10th · 1-2-2 · GD -10 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–2 | 1.23 | 0.51 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 01:00 PM |
Rebels SC Blue 12th · 1-0-3 · GD -4 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–2 | 0.88 | 0.54 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 01:00 PM |
LAFC WHITE 13th · 1-0-3 · GD -13 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
2–2 | 1.15 | 0.59 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 01:00 PM |
Pateadores 3rd · 4-0-0 · GD +13 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
1–4 | 0.20 | 0.56 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 11:00 AM |
Empire Surf 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +34 |
Away far trip
Galway Downs |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
0–7 | 0.02 | 0.52 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 12:45 PM |
Rebels SC White 8th · 2-0-2 · GD +0 |
Away El Cajon Valley High School · turf? |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–3 | 0.51 | 0.52 | Upside |
| Sun May 16 03:00 PM |
LA Breakers White 7th · 2-0-1 · GD +2 |
Away far trip
Bell Gardens Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
1–4 | 0.32 | 0.51 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Empire Surf | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 1 | +34 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -1.03 | +0.17 | 100% | 1.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sporting California USA · Sat Oct 31 at LA Breakers Red · Sat Nov 7 at LA Breakers White See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Sporting California USA | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 2 | +15 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -0.92 | +0.07 | 87% | 3.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Rebels SC White · Sat Oct 24 at Empire Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs San Diego Surf See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Pateadores | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.12 | -0.09 | 89% | 3.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 18 at LAFC WHITE · Sun Oct 25 vs Beach Futbol Club Black · Sat Oct 31 at Legends FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | LA Breakers Red | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 2 | +20 | 9 | 2.25 | WLWW | -0.79 | +0.07 | 85% | 3.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at CDA Slammers FC Black · Sat Oct 31 vs Empire Surf · Sat Nov 7 vs Rebels SC Blue See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | CDA Slammers FC Black | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 7 | +14 | 9 | 2.25 | LWWW | -1.04 | +0.24 | 31% | 4.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs LA Breakers Red · Sat Oct 24 at LA Breakers White · Sat Nov 7 vs Sporting California USA See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Beach Futbol Club Black | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 10 | 2.00 | WDWLW | +0.37 | -0.17 | 5% | 6.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at West Coast FC White · Sun Oct 25 at Pateadores · Sun Nov 1 vs Rebels SC White See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | LA Breakers White | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 6 | 2.00 | LWW | -0.06 | -0.01 | 3% | 6.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs CDA Slammers FC Black · Sun Oct 25 at West Coast FC White · Sat Nov 7 vs Empire Surf See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Rebels SC White | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 11 | +0 | 6 | 1.50 | WLLW | -1.39 | +0.52 | 0% | 9.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at Sporting California USA · Sun Nov 1 at Beach Futbol Club Black · Sat Nov 7 vs Legends FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | LAFC GOLD | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 6 | 1.20 | WWLLL | +1.22 | -0.47 | 0% | 8.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at LAFC WHITE · Sun Oct 25 at Legends FC - Del Mar · Sun Nov 1 vs West Coast FC White See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Legends FC - Del Mar | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 5 | 1.00 | DDLWL | -0.27 | +0.26 | 0% | 12.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs LV Heat Surf · Sun Oct 25 vs LAFC GOLD · Sun Nov 15 vs LA Breakers White See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | FC Long Beach | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 4 | 0.80 | DLWLL | -0.00 | +0.16 | 0% | 12.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at West Coast FC White · Sat Nov 7 vs Pateadores · Sat Nov 14 vs San Diego Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Rebels SC Blue | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 3 | 0.75 | LLWL | +0.33 | -0.03 | 0% | 10.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Legends FC · Sun Oct 25 vs LV Heat Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs LAFC WHITE See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | LAFC WHITE | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 3 | 0.75 | LLLW | +1.11 | -0.25 | 0% | 12.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 18 vs Pateadores · Sat Oct 24 vs LAFC GOLD · Sat Oct 31 at Rebels SC Blue See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | LV Heat Surf | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 41 | -30 | 4 | 0.67 | LLLWL | +0.57 | -0.02 | 0% | 15.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Legends FC - Del Mar · Sun Oct 25 at Rebels SC Blue · Sat Nov 14 vs Beach Futbol Club Black See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | Legends FC | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 3 | 0.60 | LLWLL | +0.69 | -0.16 | 0% | 12.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at Rebels SC Blue · Sat Oct 31 vs Pateadores · Sat Nov 7 at Rebels SC White See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | West Coast FC White | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 1 | 0.33 | DLL | -0.33 | +0.26 | 0% | 14.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Beach Futbol Club Black · Sat Oct 24 vs FC Long Beach · Sun Oct 25 vs LA Breakers White See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | San Diego Surf | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 13 | -12 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | -0.12 | +0.19 | 0% | 15.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Sporting California USA · Sat Nov 7 vs LAFC GOLD · Sat Nov 14 at FC Long Beach See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.71 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.