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CDA Slammers FC Black

ECNL Regional League Boys · Southern Cal BU17 · 17 teams · CDA Slammers FC (all teams)

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5th
3-0-1 record · 4 played
2.25 points per game
+14 goal diff · 21–7
LWWWlast 4
33% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.9
-1.04 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:00 PM

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CDA Slammers FC Black
5th · 2.25 PPG
at
LA Breakers White
7th · 2.00 PPG

Bell Gardens Sports Complex, Field 5 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.9 for, 2.9 against · 1.87 expected points)

Season so farCDA Slammers FC BlackLA Breakers White
Position5th7th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-12-0-1
Points per game2.252.00
Goals for / game5.33.7
Goals against / game1.83.0
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W W LW W L
Biggest win9–1 at FC Long Beach3–1 at FC Long Beach
Worst loss2–3 at Beach Futbol Club Black4–5 vs Pateadores
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.65+0.33
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.04-0.06

Common opponents: FC Long Beach — we 9–1; they 3–1.

Game plan

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 57% / draw 15% / loss 28%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 02:00 PM at Bell Gardens Sports Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    LA Breakers Red sit 4th on 2.25 PPG; we are on 2.25.

    A point moves us above LA Breakers Red on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the LA Breakers White game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (CDA Slammers FC Black – LA Breakers White) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.40 PPG
4th▲ up 1 3rd▲ up 2 4th▲ up 1
Win
2.40 PPG
4th▲ up 1 3rd▲ up 2 4th▲ up 1
Draw
2.00 PPG
5th— holds 5th— holds 6th▼ down 1
Loss
1.80 PPG
7th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–2 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
33% top 4
67% below the top 4
4.9 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 4%
  3. 3rd 9%
  4. 4th 19%
  5. 5th 42%
  6. 6th 17%
  7. 7th 7%
  8. 8th 2%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.81 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Empire Surf 3.00 (+0.75) 1st (2.75) 39 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
2 Sporting California USA 3.00 (+0.75) 3rd (2.36) 39 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
3 Pateadores 3.00 (+0.75) 2nd (2.39) 39 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
4 LA Breakers Red 2.25 (+0.00) 4th (2.33) A point next game

How the results connect

5 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link CDA Slammers FC Black to LA Breakers White through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
1 even
1 favour them
+3.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
9–1 1–3 2–1 0–2 5–4 8–2 0–9 2–5 3–4 4–1 CDA Slammers FC Bla… 5th FC Long Beach 11th LAFC GOLD 9th LV Heat Surf 14th Pateadores 3rd Rebels SC White 8th LA Breakers White 7th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

5 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.24 · 4th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 10
TBD
no score posted
LA Breakers Red
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +20
Home
●●●●○ Tough
27%
2–3 0.98 2.00 Upside
Sat Oct 24
02:00 PM
LA Breakers White
7th · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Away far trip
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%
3–2 1.87 1.98 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
TBD
Sporting California USA
2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +15
Home
●●●●○ Tough
35%
2–3 1.21 1.87 Upside
Sat Nov 14
09:00 AM
Legends FC
15th · 1-0-4 · GD -10
Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
4–1 2.45 1.94 Bank it
Sat Nov 21
06:00 PM
LAFC WHITE
13th · 1-0-3 · GD -13
Away far trip
Alemany High School · turf
●○○○○ Favorable
83%
5–2 2.57 2.01 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
TBD
San Diego Surf
17th · 0-0-3 · GD -12
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
93%
5–1 2.84 2.09 Bank it
Sat Apr 3
04:15 PM
Rebels SC White
8th · 2-0-2 · GD +0
Away far trip
Monte Vista High School · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
3–2 2.13 2.10 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
TBD
Pateadores
3rd · 4-0-0 · GD +13
Home
●●●●○ Tough
42%
2–2 1.42 2.04 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD
West Coast FC White
16th · 0-1-2 · GD -9
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
83%
4–1 2.57 2.08 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
11:00 AM
Empire Surf
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +34
Away far trip
Galway Downs
●●●●● Very tough
8%
1–4 0.32 1.95 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD
Rebels SC Blue
12th · 1-0-3 · GD -4
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
77%
3–1 2.44 1.99 Bank it
Sat May 8
TBD
Legends FC - Del Mar
10th · 1-2-2 · GD -10
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
88%
4–1 2.71 2.03 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Empire Surf 5500 351+34 153.00 WWWWW -1.03 +0.17 100% 1.2
2 Sporting California USA 3300 172+15 93.00 WWW -0.92 +0.07 86% 3.2
3 Pateadores 4400 185+13 123.00 WWWW -0.12 -0.09 87% 3.1
4 LA Breakers Red 4301 222+20 92.25 WLWW -0.79 +0.07 85% 3.3
5 CDA Slammers FC Black 4301 217+14 92.25 LWWW -1.04 +0.24 33% 4.9
6 Beach Futbol Club Black 5311 107+3 102.00 WDWLW +0.37 -0.17 6% 6.4
7 LA Breakers White 3201 119+2 62.00 LWW -0.06 -0.01 3% 6.7
8 Rebels SC White 4202 1111+0 61.50 WLLW -1.39 +0.52 0% 9.6
9 LAFC GOLD 5203 58-3 61.20 WWLLL +1.22 -0.47 0% 8.4
10 Legends FC - Del Mar 5122 616-10 51.00 DDLWL -0.27 +0.26 0% 12.8
11 FC Long Beach 5113 919-10 40.80 DLWLL -0.00 +0.16 0% 12.6
12 Rebels SC Blue 4103 59-4 30.75 LLWL +0.33 -0.03 0% 10.3
13 LAFC WHITE 4103 720-13 30.75 LLLW +1.11 -0.25 0% 12.5
14 LV Heat Surf 6114 1141-30 40.67 LLLWL +0.57 -0.02 0% 15.7
15 Legends FC 5104 818-10 30.60 LLWLL +0.69 -0.16 0% 12.7
16 West Coast FC White 3012 514-9 10.33 DLL -0.33 +0.26 0% 13.9
17 San Diego Surf 3003 113-12 00.00 LLL -0.12 +0.19 0% 15.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.71 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.