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LA Breakers White

ECNL Regional League Boys · Southern Cal BU17 · 17 teams · LA Breakers FC (all teams)

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7th
2-0-1 record · 3 played
2.00 points per game
+2 goal diff · 11–9
LWWlast 3
3% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.8
-0.06 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:00 PM

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LA Breakers White
7th · 2.00 PPG
vs
CDA Slammers FC Black
5th · 2.25 PPG

Bell Gardens Sports Complex, Field 5 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 2.9 for, 3.9 against · 0.98 expected points)

Season so farLA Breakers WhiteCDA Slammers FC Black
Position7th5th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-13-0-1
Points per game2.002.25
Goals for / game3.75.3
Goals against / game3.01.8
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W LW W W L
Biggest win3–1 at FC Long Beach9–1 at FC Long Beach
Worst loss4–5 vs Pateadores2–3 at Beach Futbol Club Black
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.33+1.65
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.06-1.04

Common opponents: FC Long Beach — we 3–1; they 9–1.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    CDA Slammers FC Black score 5.2/game — well above the league's 2.7.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 28%; a draw (15%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    CDA Slammers FC Black have won 3 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • What a win does
    Beach Futbol Club Black sit 6th on 2.00 PPG; we are on 2.00.

    A point moves us above Beach Futbol Club Black on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the CDA Slammers FC Black game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LA Breakers White – CDA Slammers FC Black) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.50 PPG
7th— holds 7th— holds 9th▼ down 2
Win
2.25 PPG
5th▲ up 2 5th▲ up 2 5th▲ up 2
Draw
1.75 PPG
7th— holds 6th▲ up 1 7th— holds
Loss
1.50 PPG
7th— holds 7th— holds 9th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–3 loss we stay 7th even if every rival loses, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
3% top 4
97% below the top 4
6.8 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd 1%
  4. 4th 2%
  5. 5th 10%
  6. 6th 29%
  7. 7th 36%
  8. 8th 14%
  9. 9th 5%
  10. 10th 2%
  11. 11th 1%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th <1%
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.81 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Empire Surf 3.00 (+1.00) 1st (2.75) 42 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection
2 Sporting California USA 3.00 (+1.00) 3rd (2.36) 42 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
3 Pateadores 3.00 (+1.00) 2nd (2.39) 42 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
4 LA Breakers Red 2.25 (+0.25) 4th (2.33) Win next game
5 CDA Slammers FC Black 2.25 (+0.25) 5th (2.03) Win next game
6 Beach Futbol Club Black 2.00 (+0.00) 6th (1.77) A point next game

How the results connect

5 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link LA Breakers White to CDA Slammers FC Black through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
1 even
3 favour them
-3.2 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–1 1–9 4–5 2–0 1–2 4–3 5–2 2–8 9–0 1–4 LA Breakers White 7th FC Long Beach 11th Pateadores 3rd Rebels SC White 8th LAFC GOLD 9th LV Heat Surf 14th CDA Slammers FC Bla… 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

5 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.01 · 10th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
02:00 PM
CDA Slammers FC Black
5th · 3-0-1 · GD +14
Home
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●●●○ Tough
28%
2–3 0.98 1.75 Upside
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM
West Coast FC White
16th · 0-1-2 · GD -9
Away far trip
Orange County Great Park
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
3–2 2.12 1.82 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
04:00 PM
Empire Surf
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +34
Home
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
5%
1–5 0.22 1.55 Upside
Sun Nov 15
01:00 PM
Legends FC - Del Mar
10th · 1-2-2 · GD -10
Away far trip
Miramesa High School · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
3–1 2.09 1.63 Swing game
Sat Nov 21
11:00 AM
Rebels SC Blue
12th · 1-0-3 · GD -4
Home
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
3–1 1.98 1.67 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
TBD
Sporting California USA
2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +15
Away
●●●●● Very tough
11%
2–4 0.43 1.53 Upside
Sat Mar 20
TBD
LAFC WHITE
13th · 1-0-3 · GD -13
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
77%
4–2 2.40 1.62 Bank it
Sat Apr 3
TBD
LAFC GOLD
9th · 2-0-3 · GD -3
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
2–1 1.49 1.61 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
TBD
Legends FC
15th · 1-0-4 · GD -10
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
72%
4–2 2.27 1.66 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
TBD
LV Heat Surf
14th · 1-1-4 · GD -30
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
90%
6–2 2.76 1.75 Bank it
Sat May 1
TBD
Beach Futbol Club Black
6th · 3-1-1 · GD +3
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
42%
2–2 1.46 1.73 Swing game
Sat May 15
11:00 AM
LA Breakers Red
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +20
Away
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
8%
1–4 0.33 1.63 Upside
Sun May 16
03:00 PM
San Diego Surf
17th · 0-0-3 · GD -12
Home
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
84%
4–1 2.60 1.69 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Empire Surf 5500 351+34 153.00 WWWWW -1.03 +0.17 100% 1.2
2 Sporting California USA 3300 172+15 93.00 WWW -0.92 +0.07 87% 3.1
3 Pateadores 4400 185+13 123.00 WWWW -0.12 -0.09 88% 3.1
4 LA Breakers Red 4301 222+20 92.25 WLWW -0.79 +0.07 87% 3.2
5 CDA Slammers FC Black 4301 217+14 92.25 LWWW -1.04 +0.24 30% 4.9
6 Beach Futbol Club Black 5311 107+3 102.00 WDWLW +0.37 -0.17 5% 6.4
7 LA Breakers White 3201 119+2 62.00 LWW -0.06 -0.01 3% 6.8
8 Rebels SC White 4202 1111+0 61.50 WLLW -1.39 +0.52 0% 9.5
9 LAFC GOLD 5203 58-3 61.20 WWLLL +1.22 -0.47 0% 8.5
10 Legends FC - Del Mar 5122 616-10 51.00 DDLWL -0.27 +0.26 0% 12.7
11 FC Long Beach 5113 919-10 40.80 DLWLL -0.00 +0.16 0% 12.6
12 Rebels SC Blue 4103 59-4 30.75 LLWL +0.33 -0.03 0% 10.4
13 LAFC WHITE 4103 720-13 30.75 LLLW +1.11 -0.25 0% 12.4
14 LV Heat Surf 6114 1141-30 40.67 LLLWL +0.57 -0.02 0% 15.7
15 Legends FC 5104 818-10 30.60 LLWLL +0.69 -0.16 0% 12.7
16 West Coast FC White 3012 514-9 10.33 DLL -0.33 +0.26 0% 13.9
17 San Diego Surf 3003 113-12 00.00 LLL -0.12 +0.19 0% 15.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.71 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.