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Texas Spurs FC NTX

ECNL Regional League Boys · North Texas BU17 · 24 teams · Texas Spurs (all teams)

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21st
1-2-4 record · 7 played
0.71 points per game
-6 goal diff · 7–13
DLLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 17.6
+0.45 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 09:50 AM

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Texas Spurs FC NTX
21st · 0.71 PPG
vs
FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX
11th · 1.50 PPG

Dallas Soccer Park, Field 13 ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.6 for, 1.3 against · 1.58 expected points)

Season so farTexas Spurs FC NTXFC Dallas Youth Blue NTX
Position21st11th
Record (W-D-L)1-2-44-0-4
Points per game0.711.50
Goals for / game1.01.4
Goals against / game1.92.3
Clean sheets34
Held scoreless32
Form (recent first)L L L L DL W W L L
Biggest win3–0 at Sting Bold NTX3–0 at Sting Bold NTX
Worst loss1–5 vs Dallas Texans Red NTX0–7 vs Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.69-0.95
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.45-0.25

Common opponents: Sting Bold NTX — we 3–0; they 3–0.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–0 vs Kernow Storm FC NTX, 0–0 at Nido Dallas NTX, 0–1 at FC Dallas Youth Red NTX.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 44% / draw 24% / loss 31%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:50 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    FC Dallas Youth White NTX sit 20th on 0.86 PPG; we are on 0.71.

    A point moves us above FC Dallas Youth White NTX on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Texas Spurs FC NTX – FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 0.75 PPG		 21st— holds 19th▲ up 2 22nd▼ down 1
Win
1.00 PPG		 18th▲ up 3 17th▲ up 4 20th▲ up 1
Draw
0.75 PPG		 21st— holds 19th▲ up 2 22nd▼ down 1
Loss
0.63 PPG		 21st— holds 21st— holds 22nd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 19th if every rival drops points, and as low as 22nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
17.6 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th 1%
  11. 11th 2%
  12. 12th 3%
  13. 13th 5%
  14. 14th 6%
  15. 15th 8%
  16. 16th 8%
  17. 17th 12%
  18. 18th 12%
  19. 19th 11%
  20. 20th 12%
  21. 21st 11%
  22. 22nd 7%
  23. 23rd 1%
  24. 24th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 1.93 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 NTX Celtic FC NTX 3.00 (+2.29) 1st (2.80) 40 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Nido Dallas White NTX 2.71 (+2.00) 3rd (2.48) 36 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Dallas Texans Red NTX 2.71 (+2.00) 2nd (2.51) 36 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX 2.57 (+1.86) 4th (2.40) 34 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 2.43 (+1.72) 5th (2.24) 32 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6 NTX Celtic FC Green NTX 2.29 (+1.58) 8th (1.76) 30 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
7 Atletico Dallas Youth NTX 2.17 (+1.46) 7th (1.84) 28 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
8 DKSC NTX 1.88 (+1.17) 6th (1.93) 24 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
9 Nido Dallas NTX 1.86 (+1.15) 10th (1.54) 23 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
10 SOLAR RED NTX 1.86 (+1.15) 9th (1.62) 23 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
11 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 1.50 (+0.79) 13th (1.27) 18 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
12 Texas Warriors FC NTX 1.50 (+0.79) 14th (1.27) 18 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
13 Sting NTX 1.33 (+0.62) 15th (1.21) 15 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection
14 SOLAR BLUE NTX 1.29 (+0.58) 16th (1.12) 15 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection
15 FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX 1.17 (+0.46) 11th (1.32) 13 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
16 NTX United FC NTX 1.00 (+0.29) 12th (1.28) Win next game
17 Sting Brave NTX 1.00 (+0.29) 17th (1.01) Win next game
18 Nido Dallas Blue NTX 0.88 (+0.17) 20th (0.90) A point next game
19 Dallas Texans NTX 0.86 (+0.15) 18th (0.99) A point next game
20 FC Dallas Youth White NTX 0.86 (+0.15) 21st (0.83) A point next game

How the results connect

13 chains · 14 teams

Paths of results that link Texas Spurs FC NTX to FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us
1 even
7 favour them
+0.2 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–0 0–3 1–2 3–0 0–1 6–1 0–2 1–5 5–1 0–3 0–2 0–3 2–5 3–0 2–0 3–1 0–0 5–0 0–0 3–4 2–0 0–2 0–1 5–0 Texas Spurs FC NTX 21st Sting Bold NTX 24th Nido Dallas Blue NTX 18th FC Dallas Youth Red… 5th Dallas Texans Red N… 3rd DKSC NTX 8th Nido Dallas NTX 9th Kernow Storm FC NTX 23rd FC Dallas Youth Whi… 20th Sting Brave NTX 17th FC Dallas Youth Nav… 15th Fever United FC NTX 22nd SOLAR BLUE NTX 14th FC Dallas Youth Blu… 11th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 12th 24th Jan 1 Aug 29 Sep 5 Sep 19 Sep 27 Oct 11

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.32 · 20th hardest of 23

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
09:50 AM		 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX
11th · 4-0-4 · GD -7		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
44%		 1–1 1.58 0.82 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
09:50 AM		 Texas Warriors FC NTX
12th · 4-0-4 · GD -14		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
50%		 2–2 1.68 0.92 Swing game
Thu Nov 5
06:30 PM		 Dallas Texans NTX
19th · 2-0-5 · GD -13		 Home
Railroad Park 		●●●○○ Toss-up
49%		 1–1 1.72 1.00 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
09:50 AM		 Sting Brave NTX
17th · 2-1-4 · GD -5		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
31%		 1–1 1.14 1.01 Upside
Sun Apr 4
11:40 AM		 FC Dallas Youth White NTX
20th · 2-0-5 · GD -14		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
43%		 1–1 1.52 1.05 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
09:50 AM		 NTX Celtic FC NTX
1st · 7-0-0 · GD +27		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
3%		 0–3 0.17 0.99 Upside
Sun Apr 18
09:50 AM		 Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX
4th · 6-0-1 · GD +14		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
8%		 0–2 0.38 0.94 Upside
Sun Apr 25
11:40 AM		 NTX United FC NTX
16th · 2-2-4 · GD -4		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
36%		 1–1 1.29 0.97 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 NTX Celtic FC NTX 7700 303+27 213.00 WWWWW -0.66 -0.31 100% 1.3
2 Nido Dallas White NTX 7610 344+30 192.71 WWDWW -0.42 +0.60 86% 3.1
3 Dallas Texans Red NTX 7610 284+24 192.71 WWDWW -0.18 +0.28 90% 2.8
4 Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX 7601 195+14 182.57 WWLWW +0.41 -0.35 76% 3.7
5 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 7520 185+13 172.43 WWDWD +0.18 +0.13 39% 4.8
6 NTX Celtic FC Green NTX 7511 1917+2 162.29 LWDWW +0.27 +0.35 1% 8.3
7 Atletico Dallas Youth NTX 6411 176+11 132.17 LWDWW -0.20 +0.55 3% 7.5
8 DKSC NTX 8503 3014+16 151.88 LWWWW -0.12 -0.25 5% 6.6
9 Nido Dallas NTX 7412 159+6 131.86 WWWLL -0.31 +0.65 0% 10.3
10 SOLAR RED NTX 7412 1713+4 131.86 LWWLD +0.33 +0.38 0% 9.5
11 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 8404 1118-7 121.50 LLWWL -0.25 -0.13 0% 13.9
12 Texas Warriors FC NTX 8404 1933-14 121.50 LWWWL +0.04 -0.31 0% 14.1
13 Sting NTX 6222 119+2 81.33 LWDLD -0.30 +0.70 0% 14.1
14 SOLAR BLUE NTX 7304 816-8 91.29 WLLWL +0.59 +0.22 0% 15.9
15 FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX 6213 1511+4 71.17 WDLLL +0.27 +0.36 0% 12.6
16 NTX United FC NTX 8224 1620-4 81.00 DWLLD +0.13 -0.60 0% 13.5
17 Sting Brave NTX 7214 1419-5 71.00 LDLLW -0.11 +0.24 0% 17.2
18 Nido Dallas Blue NTX 8215 1220-8 70.88 LLLWD +0.13 +0.10 0% 18.6
19 Dallas Texans NTX 7205 720-13 60.86 LWLLL +1.01 -0.67 0% 17.6
20 FC Dallas Youth White NTX 7205 1125-14 60.86 WLLLL +0.04 +0.05 0% 19.6
21 Texas Spurs FC NTX 7124 713-6 50.71 DLLLL +0.45 -0.32 0% 17.6
22 Fever United FC NTX 7115 919-10 40.57 WLDLL +0.30 +0.46 0% 20.7
23 Kernow Storm FC NTX 7025 625-19 20.29 LLLLD +0.21 +0.50 0% 22.8
24 Sting Bold NTX 150015 045-45 00.00 LLLLL +0.00 — 0% 24.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.20 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.