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Sting NTX

ECNL Regional League Boys · North Texas BU17 · 24 teams · Sting Soccer Club (all teams)

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13th
2-2-2 record · 6 played
1.33 points per game
+2 goal diff · 11–9
LWDLDlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 14.2
-0.30 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 03:20 PM

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Sting NTX
13th · 1.33 PPG
at
Nido Dallas White NTX
2nd · 2.71 PPG

Dallas Soccer Park, Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–3 (expected goals 1.0 for, 3.8 against · 0.25 expected points)

Season so farSting NTXNido Dallas White NTX
Position13th2nd
Record (W-D-L)2-2-26-1-0
Points per game1.332.71
Goals for / game1.84.9
Goals against / game1.50.6
Clean sheets13
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)D L D W LW W D W W
Biggest win3–0 at Sting Bold NTX8–1 at Kernow Storm FC NTX
Worst loss0–1 vs Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.02+2.80
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.30-0.42

Common opponents: Sting Bold NTX — we 3–0; they 3–0. Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX — we 0–1; they 4–1. Nido Dallas Blue NTX — we 2–1; they 4–0. Kernow Storm FC NTX — we 2–2; they 8–1.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Nido Dallas White NTX score 4.9/game — well above the league's 2.2.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Nido Dallas White NTX concede only 0.6/game with 3 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 5%; a draw (9%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 03:20 PM at Dallas Soccer Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Texas Warriors FC NTX sit 12th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.33.

    A point moves us above Texas Warriors FC NTX on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Nido Dallas White NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sting NTX – Nido Dallas White NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.14 PPG		 15th▼ down 2 15th▼ down 2 17th▼ down 4
Win
1.57 PPG		 11th▲ up 2 11th▲ up 2 13th— holds
Draw
1.29 PPG		 13th— holds 14th▼ down 1 15th▼ down 2
Loss
1.14 PPG		 15th▼ down 2 15th▼ down 2 17th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–3 loss we stay 13th even if every rival loses, and as low as 17th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
14.2 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th 2%
  9. 9th 4%
  10. 10th 7%
  11. 11th 9%
  12. 12th 10%
  13. 13th 11%
  14. 14th 11%
  15. 15th 10%
  16. 16th 11%
  17. 17th 9%
  18. 18th 6%
  19. 19th 5%
  20. 20th 3%
  21. 21st 2%
  22. 22nd 1%
  23. 23rd
  24. 24th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.33 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 NTX Celtic FC NTX 3.00 (+1.67) 1st (2.80) 37 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Nido Dallas White NTX 2.71 (+1.38) 3rd (2.48) 33 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Dallas Texans Red NTX 2.71 (+1.38) 2nd (2.51) 33 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX 2.57 (+1.24) 4th (2.40) 31 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 2.43 (+1.10) 5th (2.24) 29 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
6 NTX Celtic FC Green NTX 2.29 (+0.96) 8th (1.76) 27 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
7 Atletico Dallas Youth NTX 2.17 (+0.84) 7th (1.84) 25 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
8 DKSC NTX 1.88 (+0.55) 6th (1.93) 21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
9 Nido Dallas NTX 1.86 (+0.53) 10th (1.54) 20 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
10 SOLAR RED NTX 1.86 (+0.53) 9th (1.62) 20 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
11 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 1.50 (+0.17) 13th (1.27) A point next game
12 Texas Warriors FC NTX 1.50 (+0.17) 14th (1.27) A point next game

How the results connect

15 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Sting NTX to Nido Dallas White NTX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
1 even
13 favour them
-3.1 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–0 0–3 2–1 0–4 0–1 1–4 2–2 1–8 2–3 3–0 2–2 3–4 1–1 3–0 3–0 4–1 5–0 0–7 Sting NTX 13th Sting Bold NTX 24th Nido Dallas Blue NTX 18th Atletico Dallas You… 4th Kernow Storm FC NTX 23rd Atletico Dallas You… 7th Fever United FC NTX 22nd NTX Celtic FC Green… 6th SOLAR BLUE NTX 14th Nido Dallas White N… 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 12th 24th Jan 1 Aug 29 Sep 5 Sep 19 Sep 27 Oct 11

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.70 · 1st hardest of 23

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Mon Jan 1
TBD
no score posted		 Sting Brave NTX
17th · 2-1-4 · GD -5		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%		 2–1 1.88 1.41 Swing game
Sun Oct 25
03:20 PM		 Nido Dallas White NTX
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +30		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
5%		 0–3 0.25 1.27 Upside
Sun Nov 1
01:30 PM		 Dallas Texans Red NTX
3rd · 6-1-0 · GD +24		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
11%		 1–2 0.49 1.18 Upside
Thu Nov 5
08:15 PM		 SOLAR BLUE NTX
14th · 3-0-4 · GD -8		 Away
Railroad Park 		●●●○○ Toss-up
47%		 1–1 1.64 1.23 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
01:30 PM		 FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX
15th · 2-1-3 · GD +4		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
37%		 1–1 1.33 1.23 Upside
Sun Apr 4
05:10 PM		 NTX Celtic FC Green NTX
6th · 5-1-1 · GD +2		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
41%		 2–2 1.42 1.25 Upside
Sun Apr 11
01:30 PM		 SOLAR RED NTX
10th · 4-1-2 · GD +4		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
38%		 1–2 1.34 1.26 Upside
Sun Apr 18
01:30 PM		 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX
5th · 5-2-0 · GD +13		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
20%		 1–2 0.80 1.22 Upside
Sun Apr 25
11:40 AM		 Nido Dallas NTX
9th · 4-1-2 · GD +6		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
27%		 1–1 1.03 1.21 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 NTX Celtic FC NTX 7700 303+27 213.00 WWWWW -0.66 -0.31 100% 1.3
2 Nido Dallas White NTX 7610 344+30 192.71 WWDWW -0.42 +0.60 86% 3.0
3 Dallas Texans Red NTX 7610 284+24 192.71 WWDWW -0.18 +0.28 90% 2.9
4 Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX 7601 195+14 182.57 WWLWW +0.41 -0.35 77% 3.7
5 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 7520 185+13 172.43 WWDWD +0.18 +0.13 38% 4.7
6 NTX Celtic FC Green NTX 7511 1917+2 162.29 LWDWW +0.27 +0.35 1% 8.5
7 Atletico Dallas Youth NTX 6411 176+11 132.17 LWDWW -0.20 +0.55 4% 7.5
8 DKSC NTX 8503 3014+16 151.88 LWWWW -0.12 -0.25 4% 6.6
9 Nido Dallas NTX 7412 159+6 131.86 WWWLL -0.31 +0.65 0% 10.3
10 SOLAR RED NTX 7412 1713+4 131.86 LWWLD +0.33 +0.38 0% 9.5
11 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 8404 1118-7 121.50 LLWWL -0.25 -0.13 0% 13.9
12 Texas Warriors FC NTX 8404 1933-14 121.50 LWWWL +0.04 -0.31 0% 14.2
13 Sting NTX 6222 119+2 81.33 LWDLD -0.30 +0.70 0% 14.2
14 SOLAR BLUE NTX 7304 816-8 91.29 WLLWL +0.59 +0.22 0% 15.9
15 FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX 6213 1511+4 71.17 WDLLL +0.27 +0.36 0% 12.8
16 NTX United FC NTX 8224 1620-4 81.00 DWLLD +0.13 -0.60 0% 13.3
17 Sting Brave NTX 7214 1419-5 71.00 LDLLW -0.11 +0.24 0% 17.0
18 Nido Dallas Blue NTX 8215 1220-8 70.88 LLLWD +0.13 +0.10 0% 18.6
19 Dallas Texans NTX 7205 720-13 60.86 LWLLL +1.01 -0.67 0% 17.6
20 FC Dallas Youth White NTX 7205 1125-14 60.86 WLLLL +0.04 +0.05 0% 19.6
21 Texas Spurs FC NTX 7124 713-6 50.71 DLLLL +0.45 -0.32 0% 17.6
22 Fever United FC NTX 7115 919-10 40.57 WLDLL +0.30 +0.46 0% 20.7
23 Kernow Storm FC NTX 7025 625-19 20.29 LLLLD +0.21 +0.50 0% 22.8
24 Sting Bold NTX 150015 045-45 00.00 LLLLL +0.00 — 0% 24.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.20 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.