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NTX Celtic FC NTX

ECNL Regional League Boys · North Texas BU17 · 24 teams · NTX Celtic FC (all teams)

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1st
7-0-0 record · 7 played
3.00 points per game
+27 goal diff · 30–3
WWWWWlast 5
100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.3
-0.66 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 09:50 AM

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NTX Celtic FC NTX
1st · 3.00 PPG
at

Dallas Soccer Park, Field 6 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 5–0 (expected goals 5.1 for, 0.9 against · 2.87 expected points)

Season so farNTX Celtic FC NTXFC Dallas Youth White NTX
Position1st20th
Record (W-D-L)7-0-02-0-5
Points per game3.000.86
Goals for / game4.31.6
Goals against / game0.43.6
Clean sheets51
Held scoreless02
Form (recent first)W W W W WL L L L W
Biggest win13–2 at Texas Warriors FC NTX3–0 at Sting Bold NTX
Worst loss—1–6 vs FC Dallas Youth Red NTX
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+2.48-1.60
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.66+0.04

Common opponents: Sting Bold NTX — we 3–0; they 3–0.

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    FC Dallas Youth White NTX concede 3.6/game; worst result 1–6 vs FC Dallas Youth Red NTX.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 94% chance; likely score 5–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    FC Dallas Youth White NTX have lost 4 straight (form: WLLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:50 AM at Dallas Soccer Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:50 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Dallas Youth White NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (NTX Celtic FC NTX – FC Dallas Youth White NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Win
3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Draw
2.75 PPG
1st— holds 3rd▼ down 2 2nd▼ down 1
Loss
2.63 PPG
3rd▼ down 2 3rd▼ down 2 3rd▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 5–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

79% finish 1st
100% top 4
0% below the top 4
1.3 average finish
  1. 1st 79%
  2. 2nd 15%
  3. 3rd 4%
  4. 4th 2%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th
  19. 19th
  20. 20th
  21. 21st
  22. 22nd
  23. 23rd
  24. 24th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

17 chains · 12 teams

Paths of results that link NTX Celtic FC NTX to FC Dallas Youth White NTX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

16 favour us
1 even
0 favour them
+5.1 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–0 0–3 2–0 0–5 5–1 3–0 0–3 4–2 0–3 2–0 2–0 3–4 1–5 5–0 3–0 0–2 0–3 6–1 2–0 0–2 0–2 3–1 NTX Celtic FC NTX 1st Sting Bold NTX 24th Dallas Texans NTX 19th Fever United FC NTX 22nd FC Dallas Youth Nav… 15th Dallas Texans Red N… 3rd Sting Brave NTX 17th FC Dallas Youth Blu… 11th Kernow Storm FC NTX 23rd Nido Dallas NTX 9th FC Dallas Youth Red… 5th FC Dallas Youth Whi… 20th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 12th 24th Jan 1 Aug 29 Sep 5 Sep 19 Sep 27 Oct 11

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.31 · 18th hardest of 23

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
09:50 AM
FC Dallas Youth White NTX
20th · 2-0-5 · GD -14
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
94%
5–0 2.87 2.98 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
09:50 AM
Nido Dallas Blue NTX
18th · 2-1-5 · GD -8
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
92%
4–0 2.82 2.97 Bank it
Thu Nov 5
06:30 PM
Sting Brave NTX
17th · 2-1-4 · GD -5
Away
Railroad Park
●○○○○ Favorable
87%
3–1 2.70 2.94 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
09:50 AM
Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX
4th · 6-0-1 · GD +14
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
58%
2–1 1.95 2.85 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
11:40 AM
DKSC NTX
8th · 5-0-3 · GD +16
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
3–1 2.36 2.81 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
09:50 AM
Texas Spurs FC NTX
21st · 1-2-4 · GD -6
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
89%
3–0 2.75 2.80 Bank it
Sun Apr 18
09:50 AM
NTX United FC NTX
16th · 2-2-4 · GD -4
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
91%
4–0 2.78 2.80 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
07:00 PM
FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX
11th · 4-0-4 · GD -7
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
89%
3–0 2.73 2.80 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 NTX Celtic FC NTX 7700 303+27 213.00 WWWWW -0.66 -0.31 100% 1.3
2 Nido Dallas White NTX 7610 344+30 192.71 WWDWW -0.42 +0.60 86% 3.1
3 Dallas Texans Red NTX 7610 284+24 192.71 WWDWW -0.18 +0.28 90% 2.8
4 Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX 7601 195+14 182.57 WWLWW +0.41 -0.35 76% 3.7
5 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 7520 185+13 172.43 WWDWD +0.18 +0.13 39% 4.8
6 NTX Celtic FC Green NTX 7511 1917+2 162.29 LWDWW +0.27 +0.35 1% 8.3
7 Atletico Dallas Youth NTX 6411 176+11 132.17 LWDWW -0.20 +0.55 3% 7.5
8 DKSC NTX 8503 3014+16 151.88 LWWWW -0.12 -0.25 5% 6.6
9 Nido Dallas NTX 7412 159+6 131.86 WWWLL -0.31 +0.65 0% 10.3
10 SOLAR RED NTX 7412 1713+4 131.86 LWWLD +0.33 +0.38 0% 9.5
11 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 8404 1118-7 121.50 LLWWL -0.25 -0.13 0% 13.9
12 Texas Warriors FC NTX 8404 1933-14 121.50 LWWWL +0.04 -0.31 0% 14.1
13 Sting NTX 6222 119+2 81.33 LWDLD -0.30 +0.70 0% 14.1
14 SOLAR BLUE NTX 7304 816-8 91.29 WLLWL +0.59 +0.22 0% 15.9
15 FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX 6213 1511+4 71.17 WDLLL +0.27 +0.36 0% 12.6
16 NTX United FC NTX 8224 1620-4 81.00 DWLLD +0.13 -0.60 0% 13.5
17 Sting Brave NTX 7214 1419-5 71.00 LDLLW -0.11 +0.24 0% 17.2
18 Nido Dallas Blue NTX 8215 1220-8 70.88 LLLWD +0.13 +0.10 0% 18.6
19 Dallas Texans NTX 7205 720-13 60.86 LWLLL +1.01 -0.67 0% 17.6
20 FC Dallas Youth White NTX 7205 1125-14 60.86 WLLLL +0.04 +0.05 0% 19.6
21 Texas Spurs FC NTX 7124 713-6 50.71 DLLLL +0.45 -0.32 0% 17.6
22 Fever United FC NTX 7115 919-10 40.57 WLDLL +0.30 +0.46 0% 20.7
23 Kernow Storm FC NTX 7025 625-19 20.29 LLLLD +0.21 +0.50 0% 22.8
24 Sting Bold NTX 150015 045-45 00.00 LLLLL +0.00 — 0% 24.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.20 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.