TableChase Clubs

Kernow Storm FC NTX

ECNL Regional League Boys · North Texas BU17 · 24 teams · Kernow Storm FC (all teams)

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23rd
0-2-5 record · 7 played
0.29 points per game
-19 goal diff · 6–25
LLLLDlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 22.8
+0.21 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 03:20 PM

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Kernow Storm FC NTX
23rd · 0.29 PPG
vs
FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX
15th · 1.17 PPG

Dallas Soccer Park, Field 13 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.2 for, 3.1 against · 0.48 expected points)

Season so farKernow Storm FC NTXFC Dallas Youth Navy NTX
Position23rd15th
Record (W-D-L)0-2-52-1-3
Points per game0.291.17
Goals for / game0.92.5
Goals against / game3.61.8
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless42
Form (recent first)D L L L LL L L D W
Biggest win—8–1 vs Texas Warriors FC NTX
Worst loss1–8 vs Nido Dallas White NTX0–2 vs NTX Celtic FC NTX
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.84+0.37
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.21+0.27

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–0 at Texas Spurs FC NTX, 0–2 at Dallas Texans NTX, 0–6 vs DKSC NTX, 0–3 at Nido Dallas NTX.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 12%; a draw (14%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX have lost 3 straight (form: WDLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • What a win does
    Fever United FC NTX sit 22nd on 0.57 PPG; we are on 0.29.

    A point moves us above Fever United FC NTX on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Kernow Storm FC NTX – FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.25 PPG		 23rd— holds 23rd— holds 23rd— holds
Win
0.63 PPG		 22nd▲ up 1 22nd▲ up 1 23rd— holds
Draw
0.38 PPG		 23rd— holds 23rd— holds 23rd— holds
Loss
0.25 PPG		 23rd— holds 23rd— holds 23rd— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 23rd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
22.8 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th <1%
  17. 17th <1%
  18. 18th <1%
  19. 19th <1%
  20. 20th 1%
  21. 21st 3%
  22. 22nd 10%
  23. 23rd 85%
  24. 24th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 1.73 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 NTX Celtic FC NTX 3.00 (+2.71) 1st (2.80) 43 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Nido Dallas White NTX 2.71 (+2.42) 3rd (2.48) 39 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Dallas Texans Red NTX 2.71 (+2.42) 2nd (2.51) 39 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX 2.57 (+2.28) 4th (2.40) 37 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 2.43 (+2.14) 5th (2.24) 35 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6 NTX Celtic FC Green NTX 2.29 (+2.00) 8th (1.76) 33 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
7 Atletico Dallas Youth NTX 2.17 (+1.88) 7th (1.84) 31 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
8 DKSC NTX 1.88 (+1.59) 6th (1.93) 27 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
9 Nido Dallas NTX 1.86 (+1.57) 10th (1.54) 26 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
10 SOLAR RED NTX 1.86 (+1.57) 9th (1.62) 26 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
11 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 1.50 (+1.21) 13th (1.27) 21 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
12 Texas Warriors FC NTX 1.50 (+1.21) 14th (1.27) 21 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
13 Sting NTX 1.33 (+1.04) 15th (1.21) 18 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
14 SOLAR BLUE NTX 1.29 (+1.00) 16th (1.12) 18 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
15 FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX 1.17 (+0.88) 11th (1.32) 16 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
16 NTX United FC NTX 1.00 (+0.71) 12th (1.28) 13 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
17 Sting Brave NTX 1.00 (+0.71) 17th (1.01) 13 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection
18 Nido Dallas Blue NTX 0.88 (+0.59) 20th (0.90) 12 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection
19 Dallas Texans NTX 0.86 (+0.57) 18th (0.99) 11 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection
20 FC Dallas Youth White NTX 0.86 (+0.57) 21st (0.83) 11 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection
21 Texas Spurs FC NTX 0.71 (+0.42) 19th (0.97) 9 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection
22 Fever United FC NTX 0.57 (+0.28) 22nd (0.71) A point next game

How the results connect

7 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Kernow Storm FC NTX to FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
1 even
5 favour them
-2.7 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–6 8–2 2–2 0–0 0–1 2–0 0–2 0–2 2–0 0–3 3–4 1–6 0–2 1–3 1–3 Kernow Storm FC NTX 23rd DKSC NTX 8th Texas Spurs FC NTX 21st Dallas Texans NTX 19th FC Dallas Youth Whi… 20th NTX United FC NTX 16th FC Dallas Youth Red… 5th NTX Celtic FC NTX 1st FC Dallas Youth Blu… 11th FC Dallas Youth Nav… 15th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

7 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 12th 24th Jan 1 Aug 29 Sep 5 Sep 19 Sep 27 Oct 11

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.50 · 5th hardest of 23

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
03:20 PM		 FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX
15th · 2-1-3 · GD +4		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
12%		 1–3 0.48 0.31 Upside
Sun Nov 1
01:30 PM		 NTX Celtic FC Green NTX
6th · 5-1-1 · GD +2		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
12%		 1–3 0.50 0.33 Upside
Thu Nov 5
08:15 PM		 Dallas Texans Red NTX
3rd · 6-1-0 · GD +24		 Home
Railroad Park 		●●●●● Very tough
2%		 0–4 0.10 0.31 Upside
Sun Nov 8
01:30 PM		 SOLAR RED NTX
10th · 4-1-2 · GD +4		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
7%		 1–3 0.31 0.31 Upside
Sun Apr 4
07:00 PM		 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX
5th · 5-2-0 · GD +13		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
3%		 0–3 0.15 0.30 Upside
Sun Apr 11
03:20 PM		 Fever United FC NTX
22nd · 1-1-5 · GD -10		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
21%		 1–2 0.80 0.33 Upside
Sun Apr 18
01:30 PM		 Atletico Dallas Youth NTX
7th · 4-1-1 · GD +11		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
4%		 0–4 0.19 0.32 Upside
Sun Apr 25
07:00 PM		 SOLAR BLUE NTX
14th · 3-0-4 · GD -8		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
26%		 1–1 1.01 0.37 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 NTX Celtic FC NTX 7700 303+27 213.00 WWWWW -0.66 -0.31 100% 1.3
2 Nido Dallas White NTX 7610 344+30 192.71 WWDWW -0.42 +0.60 86% 3.1
3 Dallas Texans Red NTX 7610 284+24 192.71 WWDWW -0.18 +0.28 90% 2.8
4 Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX 7601 195+14 182.57 WWLWW +0.41 -0.35 76% 3.7
5 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 7520 185+13 172.43 WWDWD +0.18 +0.13 39% 4.8
6 NTX Celtic FC Green NTX 7511 1917+2 162.29 LWDWW +0.27 +0.35 1% 8.3
7 Atletico Dallas Youth NTX 6411 176+11 132.17 LWDWW -0.20 +0.55 3% 7.5
8 DKSC NTX 8503 3014+16 151.88 LWWWW -0.12 -0.25 5% 6.6
9 Nido Dallas NTX 7412 159+6 131.86 WWWLL -0.31 +0.65 0% 10.3
10 SOLAR RED NTX 7412 1713+4 131.86 LWWLD +0.33 +0.38 0% 9.5
11 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 8404 1118-7 121.50 LLWWL -0.25 -0.13 0% 13.9
12 Texas Warriors FC NTX 8404 1933-14 121.50 LWWWL +0.04 -0.31 0% 14.1
13 Sting NTX 6222 119+2 81.33 LWDLD -0.30 +0.70 0% 14.1
14 SOLAR BLUE NTX 7304 816-8 91.29 WLLWL +0.59 +0.22 0% 15.9
15 FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX 6213 1511+4 71.17 WDLLL +0.27 +0.36 0% 12.6
16 NTX United FC NTX 8224 1620-4 81.00 DWLLD +0.13 -0.60 0% 13.5
17 Sting Brave NTX 7214 1419-5 71.00 LDLLW -0.11 +0.24 0% 17.2
18 Nido Dallas Blue NTX 8215 1220-8 70.88 LLLWD +0.13 +0.10 0% 18.6
19 Dallas Texans NTX 7205 720-13 60.86 LWLLL +1.01 -0.67 0% 17.6
20 FC Dallas Youth White NTX 7205 1125-14 60.86 WLLLL +0.04 +0.05 0% 19.6
21 Texas Spurs FC NTX 7124 713-6 50.71 DLLLL +0.45 -0.32 0% 17.6
22 Fever United FC NTX 7115 919-10 40.57 WLDLL +0.30 +0.46 0% 20.7
23 Kernow Storm FC NTX 7025 625-19 20.29 LLLLD +0.21 +0.50 0% 22.8
24 Sting Bold NTX 150015 045-45 00.00 LLLLL +0.00 — 0% 24.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.20 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.