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Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX

ECNL Regional League Boys · North Texas BU17 · 24 teams · Atletico Dallas Youth (all teams)

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4th
6-0-1 record · 7 played
2.57 points per game
+14 goal diff · 19–5
WWLWWlast 5
77% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.7
+0.41 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 09:50 AM

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Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX
4th · 2.57 PPG
vs
Sting Brave NTX
17th · 1.00 PPG

Dallas Soccer Park, Field 4 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.3 for, 1.0 against · 2.54 expected points)

Season so farAtletico Dallas Youth Blue NTXSting Brave NTX
Position4th17th
Record (W-D-L)6-0-12-1-4
Points per game2.571.00
Goals for / game2.72.0
Goals against / game0.72.7
Clean sheets51
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)W W L W WW L L D L
Biggest win7–0 at FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX3–0 at Sting Bold NTX
Worst loss1–4 at Nido Dallas White NTX1–7 at Nido Dallas White NTX
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.38-0.69
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.41-0.11

Common opponents: Sting Bold NTX — we 3–0; they 3–0. Atletico Dallas Youth NTX — we 1–0; they 2–2. SOLAR RED NTX — we 4–1; they 2–3. Nido Dallas White NTX — we 1–4; they 1–7. FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX — we 7–0; they 0–2.

Game plan

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 81% chance; likely score 3–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:50 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Sting Brave NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX – Sting Brave NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.63 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Win
2.63 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Draw
2.38 PPG		 5th▼ down 1 5th▼ down 1 5th▼ down 1
Loss
2.25 PPG		 6th▼ down 2 7th▼ down 3 7th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–0 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

4% finish 1st
77% top 4
23% below the top 4
3.7 average finish
  1. 1st 4%
  2. 2nd 12%
  3. 3rd 28%
  4. 4th 34%
  5. 5th 16%
  6. 6th 5%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th
  19. 19th
  20. 20th
  21. 21st
  22. 22nd
  23. 23rd
  24. 24th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.80 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 NTX Celtic FC NTX 3.00 (+0.43) 1st (2.80) 27 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
2 Nido Dallas White NTX 2.71 (+0.14) 3rd (2.48) 23 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
3 Dallas Texans Red NTX 2.71 (+0.14) 2nd (2.51) 23 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection

How the results connect

19 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX to Sting Brave NTX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

14 favour us
3 even
2 favour them
+2.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–0 0–3 1–0 2–2 1–4 7–1 4–1 3–2 7–0 2–0 1–0 2–3 0–3 3–0 0–3 3–2 0–3 2–0 3–0 Atletico Dallas You… 4th Sting Bold NTX 24th Atletico Dallas You… 7th Nido Dallas White N… 2nd SOLAR RED NTX 10th FC Dallas Youth Blu… 11th Sting NTX 13th NTX United FC NTX 16th Texas Warriors FC N… 12th Sting Brave NTX 17th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 12th 24th Jan 1 Aug 29 Sep 5 Sep 19 Sep 27 Oct 11

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.35 · 21st hardest of 23

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
09:50 AM		 Sting Brave NTX
17th · 2-1-4 · GD -5		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
81%		 3–0 2.54 2.57 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
09:50 AM		 FC Dallas Youth White NTX
20th · 2-0-5 · GD -14		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
85%		 3–1 2.64 2.58 Bank it
Thu Nov 5
06:30 PM		 Texas Warriors FC NTX
12th · 4-0-4 · GD -14		 Away
Railroad Park 		●○○○○ Favorable
85%		 4–1 2.63 2.58 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
09:50 AM		 NTX Celtic FC NTX
1st · 7-0-0 · GD +27		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
21%		 1–2 0.85 2.42 Upside
Sun Apr 4
11:40 AM		 Nido Dallas Blue NTX
18th · 2-1-5 · GD -8		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
75%		 2–0 2.39 2.42 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
09:50 AM		 DKSC NTX
8th · 5-0-3 · GD +16		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
56%		 2–1 1.86 2.38 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
09:50 AM		 Texas Spurs FC NTX
21st · 1-2-4 · GD -6		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
78%		 2–0 2.48 2.38 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
03:20 PM		 Dallas Texans NTX
19th · 2-0-5 · GD -13		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
86%		 3–0 2.67 2.40 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 NTX Celtic FC NTX 7700 303+27 213.00 WWWWW -0.66 -0.31 100% 1.3
2 Nido Dallas White NTX 7610 344+30 192.71 WWDWW -0.42 +0.60 85% 3.1
3 Dallas Texans Red NTX 7610 284+24 192.71 WWDWW -0.18 +0.28 91% 2.8
4 Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX 7601 195+14 182.57 WWLWW +0.41 -0.35 77% 3.7
5 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 7520 185+13 172.43 WWDWD +0.18 +0.13 39% 4.8
6 NTX Celtic FC Green NTX 7511 1917+2 162.29 LWDWW +0.27 +0.35 1% 8.4
7 Atletico Dallas Youth NTX 6411 176+11 132.17 LWDWW -0.20 +0.55 3% 7.5
8 DKSC NTX 8503 3014+16 151.88 LWWWW -0.12 -0.25 4% 6.6
9 Nido Dallas NTX 7412 159+6 131.86 WWWLL -0.31 +0.65 0% 10.2
10 SOLAR RED NTX 7412 1713+4 131.86 LWWLD +0.33 +0.38 0% 9.4
11 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 8404 1118-7 121.50 LLWWL -0.25 -0.13 0% 13.9
12 Texas Warriors FC NTX 8404 1933-14 121.50 LWWWL +0.04 -0.31 0% 14.2
13 Sting NTX 6222 119+2 81.33 LWDLD -0.30 +0.70 0% 14.2
14 SOLAR BLUE NTX 7304 816-8 91.29 WLLWL +0.59 +0.22 0% 15.9
15 FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX 6213 1511+4 71.17 WDLLL +0.27 +0.36 0% 12.6
16 NTX United FC NTX 8224 1620-4 81.00 DWLLD +0.13 -0.60 0% 13.5
17 Sting Brave NTX 7214 1419-5 71.00 LDLLW -0.11 +0.24 0% 17.2
18 Nido Dallas Blue NTX 8215 1220-8 70.88 LLLWD +0.13 +0.10 0% 18.6
19 Dallas Texans NTX 7205 720-13 60.86 LWLLL +1.01 -0.67 0% 17.5
20 FC Dallas Youth White NTX 7205 1125-14 60.86 WLLLL +0.04 +0.05 0% 19.6
21 Texas Spurs FC NTX 7124 713-6 50.71 DLLLL +0.45 -0.32 0% 17.5
22 Fever United FC NTX 7115 919-10 40.57 WLDLL +0.30 +0.46 0% 20.6
23 Kernow Storm FC NTX 7025 625-19 20.29 LLLLD +0.21 +0.50 0% 22.8
24 Sting Bold NTX 150015 045-45 00.00 LLLLL +0.00 — 0% 24.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.20 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.