Fever United FC NTX
ECNL Regional League Boys · North Texas BU17 · 24 teams · Fever United (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 03:20 PM
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 0–2 (expected goals 0.8 for, 2.9 against · 0.33 expected points)
| Season so far | Fever United FC NTX | FC Dallas Youth Red NTX |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 22nd | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-1-5 | 5-2-0 |
| Points per game | 0.57 | 2.43 |
| Goals for / game | 1.3 | 2.6 |
| Goals against / game | 2.7 | 0.7 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 3 |
| Held scoreless | 4 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L L D L W | D W D W W |
| Biggest win | 4–3 at Texas Warriors FC NTX | 6–1 at FC Dallas Youth White NTX |
| Worst loss | 0–3 at NTX Celtic FC NTX | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.88 | +1.28 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.30 | +0.18 |
Common opponents: Dallas Texans Red NTX — we 0–2; they 1–1.
Game plan
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Hard to break down
FC Dallas Youth Red NTX concede only 0.7/game with 3 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–3 at NTX Celtic FC NTX, 0–2 vs FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX, 0–3 vs NTX United FC NTX, 0–2 at Dallas Texans Red NTX.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 7%; a draw (12%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 03:20 PM at Dallas Soccer Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Texas Spurs FC NTX sit 21st on 0.71 PPG; we are on 0.57.A point moves us above Texas Spurs FC NTX on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the FC Dallas Youth Red NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Fever United FC NTX – FC Dallas Youth Red NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.50 PPG |
22nd— holds | 22nd— holds | 23rd▼ down 1 |
| Win 0.88 PPG |
19th▲ up 3 | 19th▲ up 3 | 22nd— holds |
| Draw 0.63 PPG |
22nd— holds | 22nd— holds | 22nd— holds |
| Loss 0.50 PPG |
22nd— holds | 22nd— holds | 23rd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–2 loss we stay 22nd even if every rival loses, and as low as 23rd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th <1%
- 10th <1%
- 11th <1%
- 12th <1%
- 13th <1%
- 14th 1%
- 15th 1%
- 16th 2%
- 17th 4%
- 18th 6%
- 19th 9%
- 20th 13%
- 21st 22%
- 22nd 32%
- 23rd 9%
- 24th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 1.87 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NTX Celtic FC NTX | 3.00 (+2.43) | 1st (2.80) | 41 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Nido Dallas White NTX | 2.71 (+2.14) | 3rd (2.48) | 37 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Dallas Texans Red NTX | 2.71 (+2.14) | 2nd (2.51) | 37 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX | 2.57 (+2.00) | 4th (2.40) | 35 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | FC Dallas Youth Red NTX | 2.43 (+1.86) | 5th (2.24) | 33 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 6 | NTX Celtic FC Green NTX | 2.29 (+1.72) | 8th (1.76) | 31 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 7 | Atletico Dallas Youth NTX | 2.17 (+1.60) | 7th (1.84) | 29 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 8 | DKSC NTX | 1.88 (+1.31) | 6th (1.93) | 25 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 9 | Nido Dallas NTX | 1.86 (+1.29) | 10th (1.54) | 24 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 10 | SOLAR RED NTX | 1.86 (+1.29) | 9th (1.62) | 24 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 11 | FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX | 1.50 (+0.93) | 13th (1.27) | 19 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection |
| 12 | Texas Warriors FC NTX | 1.50 (+0.93) | 14th (1.27) | 19 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection |
| 13 | Sting NTX | 1.33 (+0.76) | 15th (1.21) | 16 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection |
| 14 | SOLAR BLUE NTX | 1.29 (+0.72) | 16th (1.12) | 16 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection |
| 15 | FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX | 1.17 (+0.60) | 11th (1.32) | 14 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection |
| 16 | NTX United FC NTX | 1.00 (+0.43) | 12th (1.28) | 11 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection |
| 17 | Sting Brave NTX | 1.00 (+0.43) | 17th (1.01) | 11 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection |
| 18 | Nido Dallas Blue NTX | 0.88 (+0.31) | 20th (0.90) | 10 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection |
| 19 | Dallas Texans NTX | 0.86 (+0.29) | 18th (0.99) | A point next game |
| 20 | FC Dallas Youth White NTX | 0.86 (+0.29) | 21st (0.83) | A point next game |
| 21 | Texas Spurs FC NTX | 0.71 (+0.14) | 19th (0.97) | A point next game |
How the results connect
13 chains · 14 teams
Paths of results that link Fever United FC NTX to FC Dallas Youth Red NTX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.46 · 6th hardest of 23
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 03:20 PM |
FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 5th · 5-2-0 · GD +13 |
Away Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
0–2 | 0.33 | 0.54 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 01:30 PM |
Nido Dallas White NTX 2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +30 |
Home Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
0–4 | 0.17 | 0.50 | Upside |
| Thu Nov 5 08:15 PM |
SOLAR RED NTX 10th · 4-1-2 · GD +4 |
Away Railroad Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
1–2 | 0.62 | 0.51 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 01:30 PM |
Atletico Dallas Youth NTX 7th · 4-1-1 · GD +11 |
Home Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–2 | 0.59 | 0.52 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 05:10 PM |
Nido Dallas NTX 9th · 4-1-2 · GD +6 |
Home Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
1–2 | 0.86 | 0.55 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 03:20 PM |
Kernow Storm FC NTX 23rd · 0-2-5 · GD -19 |
Home Dallas Soccer Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 61% |
2–1 | 2.01 | 0.66 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 01:30 PM |
SOLAR BLUE NTX 14th · 3-0-4 · GD -8 |
Home Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
1–1 | 1.46 | 0.72 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 03:20 PM |
FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX 15th · 2-1-3 · GD +4 |
Away Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
1–2 | 0.63 | 0.71 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | NTX Celtic FC NTX | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 3 | +27 | 21 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.66 | -0.31 | 100% | 1.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at FC Dallas Youth White NTX · Sun Nov 1 vs Nido Dallas Blue NTX · Thu Nov 5 at Sting Brave NTX See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Nido Dallas White NTX | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 34 | 4 | +30 | 19 | 2.71 | WWDWW | -0.42 | +0.60 | 87% | 3.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Sting NTX · Sun Nov 1 at Fever United FC NTX · Sat Nov 7 at FC Dallas Youth Red NTX See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Dallas Texans Red NTX | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 4 | +24 | 19 | 2.71 | WWDWW | -0.18 | +0.28 | 90% | 2.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at SOLAR BLUE NTX · Sun Nov 1 at Sting NTX · Thu Nov 5 at Kernow Storm FC NTX See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 5 | +14 | 18 | 2.57 | WWLWW | +0.41 | -0.35 | 77% | 3.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Sting Brave NTX · Sun Nov 1 at FC Dallas Youth White NTX · Thu Nov 5 at Texas Warriors FC NTX See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | FC Dallas Youth Red NTX | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 17 | 2.43 | WWDWD | +0.18 | +0.13 | 38% | 4.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Fever United FC NTX · Sun Nov 1 vs Atletico Dallas Youth NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs Nido Dallas White NTX See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | NTX Celtic FC Green NTX | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 16 | 2.29 | LWDWW | +0.27 | +0.35 | 1% | 8.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Nido Dallas NTX · Sun Nov 1 at Kernow Storm FC NTX · Thu Nov 5 vs Atletico Dallas Youth NTX See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Atletico Dallas Youth NTX | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 13 | 2.17 | LWDWW | -0.20 | +0.55 | 3% | 7.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 at FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX · Sun Oct 25 vs SOLAR RED NTX · Sun Nov 1 at FC Dallas Youth Red NTX See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | DKSC NTX | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 30 | 14 | +16 | 15 | 1.88 | LWWWW | -0.12 | -0.25 | 5% | 6.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Texas Warriors FC NTX · Sun Nov 1 at Sting Brave NTX · Thu Nov 5 vs FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Nido Dallas NTX | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 13 | 1.86 | WWWLL | -0.31 | +0.65 | 0% | 10.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at NTX Celtic FC Green NTX · Sun Nov 1 at SOLAR RED NTX · Thu Nov 5 vs FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | SOLAR RED NTX | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 13 | 1.86 | LWWLD | +0.33 | +0.38 | 0% | 9.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Atletico Dallas Youth NTX · Sun Nov 1 vs Nido Dallas NTX · Thu Nov 5 vs Fever United FC NTX See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 12 | 1.50 | LLWWL | -0.25 | -0.13 | 0% | 14.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Texas Spurs FC NTX · Sun Nov 1 at NTX United FC NTX · Thu Nov 5 at DKSC NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Texas Warriors FC NTX | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 33 | -14 | 12 | 1.50 | LWWWL | +0.04 | -0.31 | 0% | 14.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs DKSC NTX · Sun Nov 1 at Texas Spurs FC NTX · Thu Nov 5 vs Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Sting NTX | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 8 | 1.33 | LWDLD | -0.30 | +0.70 | 0% | 14.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs Sting Brave NTX · Sun Oct 25 at Nido Dallas White NTX · Sun Nov 1 vs Dallas Texans Red NTX See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | SOLAR BLUE NTX | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 9 | 1.29 | WLLWL | +0.59 | +0.22 | 0% | 15.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Dallas Texans Red NTX · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX · Thu Nov 5 vs Sting NTX See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 7 | 1.17 | WDLLL | +0.27 | +0.36 | 0% | 12.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 vs Atletico Dallas Youth NTX · Sun Oct 25 at Kernow Storm FC NTX · Sun Nov 1 at SOLAR BLUE NTX See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | NTX United FC NTX | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 8 | 1.00 | DWLLD | +0.13 | -0.60 | 0% | 13.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Dallas Texans NTX · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX · Sun Nov 8 vs Texas Warriors FC NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | Sting Brave NTX | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 7 | 1.00 | LDLLW | -0.11 | +0.24 | 0% | 17.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at Sting NTX · Sun Oct 25 at Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX · Sun Nov 1 vs DKSC NTX See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 18 | Nido Dallas Blue NTX | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 7 | 0.88 | LLLWD | +0.13 | +0.10 | 0% | 18.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at NTX Celtic FC NTX · Thu Nov 5 at FC Dallas Youth White NTX · Sun Nov 8 at Dallas Texans NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 19 | Dallas Texans NTX | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 6 | 0.86 | LWLLL | +1.01 | -0.67 | 0% | 17.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 vs FC Dallas Youth White NTX · Sun Oct 25 at NTX United FC NTX · Thu Nov 5 at Texas Spurs FC NTX See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 20 | FC Dallas Youth White NTX | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 25 | -14 | 6 | 0.86 | WLLLL | +0.04 | +0.05 | 0% | 19.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 at Dallas Texans NTX · Sun Oct 25 vs NTX Celtic FC NTX · Sun Nov 1 vs Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 21 | Texas Spurs FC NTX | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 5 | 0.71 | DLLLL | +0.45 | -0.32 | 0% | 17.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX · Sun Nov 1 vs Texas Warriors FC NTX · Thu Nov 5 vs Dallas Texans NTX See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 22 | Fever United FC NTX | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 4 | 0.57 | WLDLL | +0.30 | +0.46 | 0% | 20.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at FC Dallas Youth Red NTX · Sun Nov 1 vs Nido Dallas White NTX · Thu Nov 5 at SOLAR RED NTX See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 23 | Kernow Storm FC NTX | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 25 | -19 | 2 | 0.29 | LLLLD | +0.21 | +0.50 | 0% | 22.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX · Sun Nov 1 vs NTX Celtic FC Green NTX · Thu Nov 5 vs Dallas Texans Red NTX See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 24 | Sting Bold NTX | 15 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 45 | -45 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.00 | — | 0% | 24.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.20 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.