South Valley United Soccer Club

ECNL Regional League Boys · NorCal BU18/19 · 23 teams · South Valley United Soccer Club (all teams)

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13th

3-0-3 record · 6 played

1.50 points per game

+8 goal diff · 20–12

LWLLWlast 5

2% chance of top 4 · expected finish 11.0

+0.33 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 08:00 AM

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South Valley United Soccer Club
13th · 1.50 PPG

South Valley Chivas
15th · 1.00 PPG

Burton Middle School, Field 11v11 (ECNL RL) ↗

75% 11% 14%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 4–2 (expected goals 4.4 for, 2.2 against · 2.35 expected points)

Season so far	South Valley United Soccer Club	South Valley Chivas
Position	13th	15th
Record (W-D-L)	3-0-3	1-0-2
Points per game	1.50	1.00
Goals for / game	3.3	2.0
Goals against / game	2.0	5.3
Clean sheets	1	0
Held scoreless	0	1
Form (recent first)	W L L W L	L L W
Biggest win	7–0 vs Sheriffs FC	3–2 at Livermore Fusion SC
Worst loss	1–4 vs Walnut Creek Surf	3–11 at Clovis Crossfire
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.87	-1.39
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.33	+1.06

Common opponents: Clovis Crossfire — we 1–2; they 3–11.

Game plan

They leak goals — be greedy
South Valley Chivas concede 5.3/game; worst result 3–11 at Clovis Crossfire.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 75% chance; likely score 4–2.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Away game
Kickoff 08:00 AM at Burton Middle School.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
Early kickoff
Game time 08:00 AM.
Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
What a win does
Union FC sit 12th on 1.57 PPG; we are on 1.50.
A point moves us above Union FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the South Valley Chivas game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (South Valley United Soccer Club – South Valley Chivas) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 1.71 PPG	11th▲ up 2	13th— holds	13th— holds
Win 1.71 PPG	11th▲ up 2	13th— holds	13th— holds
Draw 1.43 PPG	13th— holds	13th— holds	13th— holds
Loss 1.29 PPG	14th▼ down 1	14th▼ down 1	14th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–2 win we finish as high as 8th if every rival drops points, and as low as 13th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

2% top 4

98% below the top 4

11.0 average finish

1st
2nd <1%
3rd <1%
4th 1%
5th 2%
6th 3%
7th 4%
8th 5%
9th 7%
10th 11%
11th 15%
12th 20%
13th 22%
14th 8%
15th 2%
16th <1%
17th <1%
18th
19th
20th
21st
22nd
23rd

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.40 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	ALBION SC Central Valley	2.67 (+1.17)	2nd (2.34)	32 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
2	Clovis Crossfire	2.57 (+1.07)	1st (2.48)	30 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	Stockton TLJ FC	2.50 (+1.00)	4th (2.09)	29 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
4	Walnut Creek Surf	2.33 (+0.83)	3rd (2.22)	26 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
5	Sunnyvale Alliance Soccer Club	2.29 (+0.79)	7th (1.98)	26 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
6	Elk Grove United	2.14 (+0.64)	5th (2.04)	24 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
7	Santa Cruz Mid County YSC	2.00 (+0.50)	11th (1.83)	21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
8	Solano Surf	2.00 (+0.50)	8th (1.96)	21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
9	Central Valley Premier FC -RL	1.86 (+0.36)	9th (1.85)	19 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
10	San Ramon FC -RL	1.86 (+0.36)	6th (2.04)	19 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
11	Fresno Heat	1.71 (+0.21)	13th (1.57)	A point next game
12	Union FC	1.57 (+0.07)	10th (1.84)	A point next game

How the results connect

8 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link South Valley United Soccer Club to South Valley Chivas through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us

2 even

2 favour them

+2.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

8 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.03 · 11th hardest of 23

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 08:00 AM	South Valley Chivas 15th · 1-0-2 · GD -10	Away Burton Middle School	●●○○○ Lean win	75%	4–2	2.35	1.62	Bank it
Sat Oct 31 12:00 PM	Central Valley Premier FC -RL 9th · 4-1-2 · GD +11	Home Neighborhood Church	●●●○○ Toss-up	42%	2–2	1.46	1.60	Swing game
Sat Nov 7 04:00 PM	Solano Surf 8th · 4-2-1 · GD +8	Away far trip Fairfield High School · turf?	●●●●○ Tough	30%	1–1	1.13	1.55	Upside
Sat Mar 13 02:15 PM	Union FC 12th · 3-2-2 · GD +4	Away far trip Larchmont Community Park	●●●●○ Tough	35%	1–1	1.26	1.52	Upside
Sat Apr 3 04:00 PM	East County Revolution FC /09 17th · 1-0-4 · GD -7	Home Neighborhood Church	●●○○○ Lean win	73%	3–1	2.34	1.59	Bank it
Sat Apr 10 10:00 AM	Turlock Academica Jrs 14th · 1-3-2 · GD -3	Away far trip Academica Fields · turf?	●●●○○ Toss-up	52%	2–1	1.76	1.61	Swing game
Sat Apr 17 12:00 PM	ALBION SC Central Valley 1st · 5-1-0 · GD +23	Away far trip Buchanan High School	●●●●● Very tough	15%	1–3	0.56	1.53	Upside
Sun Apr 25 TBD	SF United FC 21st · 0-1-6 · GD -15	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	73%	3–1	2.33	1.58	Bank it
Sat May 1 12:00 PM	Sanger Futbol Club 20th · 0-1-4 · GD -15	Away far trip Sanger Academy Charter School	●○○○○ Favorable	78%	3–1	2.47	1.64	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

ALBION SC Central Valley

+23

2.67

WWWWD

-0.25

+0.62

82%

3.0

D	Sat Oct 10	at	Solano Surf (8th)	0–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Fresno Heat (11th)	5–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Sanger Futbol Club (20th)	8–1
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	San Ramon FC -RL (10th)	5–1
W	Sun Aug 16	vs	Stockton TLJ FC (3rd)	5–3
W	Sat Aug 15	at	Stanford Strikers (23rd)	6–0

Next: Sat Oct 17 at Turlock Academica Jrs · Sat Oct 24 vs East County Revolution FC /09 · Sat Oct 31 at Clovis Crossfire See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	at	Turlock Academica Jrs (14th)	3–1	75%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	East County Revolution FC /09 (17th)	4–1	89%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Clovis Crossfire (2nd)	2–3	35%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Elk Grove United (6th)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Santa Cruz Mid County YSC (7th)	2–1	62%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Sunnyvale Alliance Soccer Club (5th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	South Valley United Soccer Club (13th)	3–1	73%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (9th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat May 1	at	South Valley Chivas (15th)	5–1	92%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Clovis Crossfire

+32

2.57

WWWWW

-1.07

-0.13

95%

1.8

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	South Valley Chivas (15th)	11–3
W	Sat Oct 10	at	South Valley United Soccer Club (13th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (22nd)	7–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Legends FC SJ (19th)	10–1
W	Sun Aug 23	at	East County Revolution FC /09 (17th)	6–0
W	Sun Aug 16	vs	SF United FC (21st)	5–1
L	Sat Aug 15	at	Union FC (12th)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Livermore Fusion SC · Sat Oct 31 vs ALBION SC Central Valley · Sat Nov 7 vs Stockton TLJ FC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Livermore Fusion SC (18th)	5–1	92%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	ALBION SC Central Valley (1st)	3–2	48%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Stockton TLJ FC (3rd)	4–2	74%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Sunnyvale Alliance Soccer Club (5th)	2–2	49%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Sanger Futbol Club (20th)	5–1	94%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Fresno Heat (11th)	4–1	84%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Sheriffs FC (16th)	6–1	97%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Stanford Strikers (23rd)	7–0	99%
·	Sat May 1	at	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (9th)	3–2	59%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Stockton TLJ FC

2.50

LWWWW

+0.29

-0.10

36%

5.9

W	Sat Oct 17	at	SF United FC (21st)	4–1
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Turlock Academica Jrs (14th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Livermore Fusion SC (18th)	5–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (9th)	3–2
L	Sun Aug 16	at	ALBION SC Central Valley (1st)	3–5
W	Sat Aug 15	vs	Sunnyvale Alliance Soccer Club (5th)	4–2

Next: Sat Aug 22 vs South Valley Chivas · Sat Oct 24 vs Walnut Creek Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Diablo Valley Futbol Club See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Aug 22 (no score yet)	vs	South Valley Chivas (15th)	5–2	86%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Walnut Creek Surf (4th)	2–2	36%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (22nd)	5–1	93%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Clovis Crossfire (2nd)	2–4	15%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Elk Grove United (6th)	2–2	33%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Union FC (12th)	1–2	37%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Solano Surf (8th)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	East County Revolution FC /09 (17th)	3–1	67%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Fresno Heat (11th)	3–2	63%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Stanford Strikers (23rd)	6–0	98%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Walnut Creek Surf

+11

2.33

DWWWD

+0.16

-0.52

63%

4.2

D	Sat Oct 17	vs	Union FC (12th)	3–3
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Livermore Fusion SC (18th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	South Valley United Soccer Club (13th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	SF United FC (21st)	4–0
D	Sun Aug 16	at	Solano Surf (8th)	0–0
W	Sat Aug 15	vs	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (9th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Stockton TLJ FC · Sat Oct 31 at Turlock Academica Jrs · Sat Nov 7 vs San Ramon FC -RL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Stockton TLJ FC (3rd)	2–2	45%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Turlock Academica Jrs (14th)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	San Ramon FC -RL (10th)	2–1	50%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Stanford Strikers (23rd)	5–0	97%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Fresno Heat (11th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Sanger Futbol Club (20th)	3–0	88%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (22nd)	4–0	93%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Santa Cruz Mid County YSC (7th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat May 1	at	East County Revolution FC /09 (17th)	2–1	70%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sunnyvale Alliance Soccer Club

+15

2.29

WWWWW

-0.64

+0.65

22%

7.1

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Legends FC SJ (19th)	11–1
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Union FC (12th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	East County Revolution FC /09 (17th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Livermore Fusion SC (18th)	3–1
W	Sat Aug 22	at	South Valley United Soccer Club (13th)	3–1
D	Sun Aug 16	vs	Sanger Futbol Club (20th)	1–1
L	Sat Aug 15	at	Stockton TLJ FC (3rd)	2–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Santa Cruz Mid County YSC · Sat Oct 31 vs Elk Grove United · Sat Nov 7 vs Sheriffs FC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Santa Cruz Mid County YSC (7th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Elk Grove United (6th)	2–1	51%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Sheriffs FC (16th)	4–0	90%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Clovis Crossfire (2nd)	2–2	33%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	South Valley Chivas (15th)	4–1	83%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	ALBION SC Central Valley (1st)	2–2	33%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (9th)	2–2	43%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Solano Surf (8th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat May 1	at	Fresno Heat (11th)	2–1	59%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Elk Grove United

+11

2.14

LWWWW

-0.77

-0.26

30%

6.4

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (22nd)	6–1
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Stanford Strikers (23rd)	4–0
W	Fri Oct 2	vs	Union FC (12th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Sanger Futbol Club (20th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	South Valley United Soccer Club (13th)	2–4
W	Sun Aug 16	at	Santa Cruz Mid County YSC (7th)	1–0
L	Sat Aug 15	vs	Fresno Heat (11th)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Sunnyvale Alliance Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 at ALBION SC Central Valley · Sat Mar 13 vs Stockton TLJ FC See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Sunnyvale Alliance Soccer Club (5th)	1–2	29%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	ALBION SC Central Valley (1st)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Stockton TLJ FC (3rd)	2–2	49%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Turlock Academica Jrs (14th)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Legends FC SJ (19th)	5–1	92%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	SF United FC (21st)	3–0	80%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	East County Revolution FC /09 (17th)	2–1	65%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Sheriffs FC (16th)	3–0	86%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Santa Cruz Mid County YSC

2.00

LWWWL

-0.10

+0.14

10%

8.9

L	Sat Oct 10	at	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (9th)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	SF United FC (21st)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Fresno Heat (11th)	3–0
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Turlock Academica Jrs (14th)	4–0
L	Sun Aug 16	vs	Elk Grove United (6th)	0–1
W	Sat Aug 15	at	Sanger Futbol Club (20th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sunnyvale Alliance Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 vs Stanford Strikers · Sat Nov 7 at Union FC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Sunnyvale Alliance Soccer Club (5th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Stanford Strikers (23rd)	4–0	95%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Union FC (12th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	San Ramon FC -RL (10th)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	ALBION SC Central Valley (1st)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (22nd)	3–0	89%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Solano Surf (8th)	1–1	41%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Walnut Creek Surf (4th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Livermore Fusion SC (18th)	2–0	72%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Solano Surf

2.00

WWLDW

-0.11

-0.38

17%

7.3

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Fresno Heat (11th)	3–1
D	Sat Oct 10	vs	ALBION SC Central Valley (1st)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Union FC (12th)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Sheriffs FC (16th)	3–0
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Stanford Strikers (23rd)	3–0
D	Sun Aug 16	vs	Walnut Creek Surf (4th)	0–0
W	Sat Aug 15	at	SF United FC (21st)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Legends FC SJ · Sat Oct 31 at East County Revolution FC /09 · Sat Nov 7 vs South Valley United Soccer Club See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Legends FC SJ (19th)	4–1	88%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	East County Revolution FC /09 (17th)	1–0	60%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	South Valley United Soccer Club (13th)	1–1	47%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	South Valley Chivas (15th)	3–1	80%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (22nd)	3–0	86%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Stockton TLJ FC (3rd)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Santa Cruz Mid County YSC (7th)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Sunnyvale Alliance Soccer Club (5th)	1–1	36%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Turlock Academica Jrs (14th)	1–0	59%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Central Valley Premier FC -RL

+11

1.86

WLDWW

-0.41

+0.08

10%

8.7

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Stanford Strikers (23rd)	7–0
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Santa Cruz Mid County YSC (7th)	3–2
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	Turlock Academica Jrs (14th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Stockton TLJ FC (3rd)	2–3
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	Legends FC SJ (19th)	4–0
W	Sun Aug 16	vs	San Ramon FC -RL (10th)	3–2
L	Sat Aug 15	at	Walnut Creek Surf (4th)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sat Oct 31 at South Valley United Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 at South Valley Chivas See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (22nd)	4–1	86%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	South Valley United Soccer Club (13th)	2–2	39%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	South Valley Chivas (15th)	4–1	77%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Sanger Futbol Club (20th)	3–1	86%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Sheriffs FC (16th)	3–1	80%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Sunnyvale Alliance Soccer Club (5th)	2–2	37%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	ALBION SC Central Valley (1st)	1–2	26%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Clovis Crossfire (2nd)	2–3	25%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

San Ramon FC -RL

+11

1.86

LWWWW

-0.66

-0.84

29%

6.3

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Livermore Fusion SC (18th)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	East County Revolution FC /09 (17th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Stanford Strikers (23rd)	10–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (22nd)	3–0
L	Sat Aug 22	at	ALBION SC Central Valley (1st)	1–5
L	Sun Aug 16	at	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (9th)	2–3
D	Sat Aug 15	vs	Turlock Academica Jrs (14th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sanger Futbol Club · Sat Oct 31 at Sheriffs FC · Sat Nov 7 at Walnut Creek Surf See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Sanger Futbol Club (20th)	3–0	85%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Sheriffs FC (16th)	3–1	80%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Walnut Creek Surf (4th)	1–2	29%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Santa Cruz Mid County YSC (7th)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	SF United FC (21st)	3–0	81%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	South Valley Chivas (15th)	4–1	85%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Fresno Heat (11th)	2–1	52%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Legends FC SJ (19th)	6–1	96%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Fresno Heat

1.71

WLLWL

-0.06

-0.01

11.8

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Solano Surf (8th)	1–3
W	Sat Oct 10	at	SF United FC (21st)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	ALBION SC Central Valley (1st)	1–5
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Santa Cruz Mid County YSC (7th)	0–3
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	Sanger Futbol Club (20th)	4–1
W	Sun Aug 16	vs	Legends FC SJ (19th)	9–2
W	Sat Aug 15	at	Elk Grove United (6th)	3–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Stanford Strikers · Sat Oct 31 at South Valley Chivas · Sat Nov 7 vs Diablo Valley Futbol Club See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Stanford Strikers (23rd)	4–1	89%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	South Valley Chivas (15th)	3–2	62%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (22nd)	4–1	85%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Livermore Fusion SC (18th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Walnut Creek Surf (4th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Clovis Crossfire (2nd)	1–4	8%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	San Ramon FC -RL (10th)	1–2	29%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Stockton TLJ FC (3rd)	2–3	22%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Sunnyvale Alliance Soccer Club (5th)	1–2	23%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Union FC

1.57

WWLLD

+0.80

-0.90

9.1

D	Sat Oct 17	at	Walnut Creek Surf (4th)	3–3
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Sunnyvale Alliance Soccer Club (5th)	0–2
L	Fri Oct 2	at	Elk Grove United (6th)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Solano Surf (8th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	South Valley Chivas (15th)	3–0
D	Sun Aug 16	at	Turlock Academica Jrs (14th)	1–1
W	Sat Aug 15	vs	Clovis Crossfire (2nd)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sheriffs FC · Sat Oct 31 at SF United FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Santa Cruz Mid County YSC See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sheriffs FC (16th)	2–0	72%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	SF United FC (21st)	2–0	66%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Santa Cruz Mid County YSC (7th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	South Valley United Soccer Club (13th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Stockton TLJ FC (3rd)	2–1	42%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	East County Revolution FC /09 (17th)	2–0	66%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Stanford Strikers (23rd)	3–0	89%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Legends FC SJ (19th)	4–1	92%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

South Valley United Soccer Club

1.50

LWLLW

+0.33

-0.03

11.0

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Sheriffs FC (16th)	7–0
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Clovis Crossfire (2nd)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Walnut Creek Surf (4th)	1–4
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Elk Grove United (6th)	4–2
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Sunnyvale Alliance Soccer Club (5th)	1–3
W	Sat Aug 15	at	Legends FC SJ (19th)	6–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at South Valley Chivas · Sat Oct 31 vs Central Valley Premier FC -RL · Sat Nov 7 at Solano Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	South Valley Chivas (15th)	4–2	75%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (9th)	2–2	42%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Solano Surf (8th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Union FC (12th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	East County Revolution FC /09 (17th)	3–1	73%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Turlock Academica Jrs (14th)	2–1	52%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	ALBION SC Central Valley (1st)	1–3	15%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	SF United FC (21st)	3–1	73%
·	Sat May 1	at	Sanger Futbol Club (20th)	3–1	78%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Turlock Academica Jrs

-3

1.00

DLWDL

+0.64

-0.20

14.2

L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Stockton TLJ FC (3rd)	1–2
D	Sat Sep 26	at	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (9th)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	East County Revolution FC /09 (17th)	4–2
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Santa Cruz Mid County YSC (7th)	0–4
D	Sun Aug 16	vs	Union FC (12th)	1–1
D	Sat Aug 15	at	San Ramon FC -RL (10th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 17 vs ALBION SC Central Valley · Sat Oct 24 at SF United FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Walnut Creek Surf See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	vs	ALBION SC Central Valley (1st)	1–3	12%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	SF United FC (21st)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Walnut Creek Surf (4th)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Sanger Futbol Club (20th)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Legends FC SJ (19th)	4–1	85%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Elk Grove United (6th)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	South Valley United Soccer Club (13th)	1–2	29%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	South Valley Chivas (15th)	2–2	53%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Livermore Fusion SC (18th)	1–1	46%
·	Sat May 1	at	Solano Surf (8th)	0–1	19%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

South Valley Chivas

-10

1.00

WLL

+1.06

+0.34

17.5

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Clovis Crossfire (2nd)	3–11
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Union FC (12th)	0–3
W	Sat Aug 15	at	Livermore Fusion SC (18th)	3–2

Next: Sun Aug 16 vs East County Revolution FC /09 · Sat Aug 22 at Stockton TLJ FC · Sat Oct 10 at Sanger Futbol Club See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Aug 16 (no score yet)	vs	East County Revolution FC /09 (17th)	2–2	41%
·	Sat Aug 22 (no score yet)	at	Stockton TLJ FC (3rd)	2–5	7%
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	at	Sanger Futbol Club (20th)	2–2	48%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	South Valley United Soccer Club (13th)	2–4	14%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Fresno Heat (11th)	2–3	23%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (9th)	1–4	12%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Solano Surf (8th)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Sunnyvale Alliance Soccer Club (5th)	1–4	8%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	San Ramon FC -RL (10th)	1–4	7%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Turlock Academica Jrs (14th)	2–2	29%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (22nd)	3–2	58%
·	Sat May 1	vs	ALBION SC Central Valley (1st)	1–5	4%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sheriffs FC

-12

1.00

WWLLL

-1.18

+0.46

17.6

L	Sat Oct 17	at	South Valley United Soccer Club (13th)	0–7
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Legends FC SJ (19th)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Solano Surf (8th)	0–3
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (22nd)	2–1
W	Sun Aug 16	vs	Stanford Strikers (23rd)	2–1
L	Sat Aug 15	at	East County Revolution FC /09 (17th)	1–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Union FC · Sat Oct 31 vs San Ramon FC -RL · Sat Nov 7 at Sunnyvale Alliance Soccer Club See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Union FC (12th)	0–2	12%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	San Ramon FC -RL (10th)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Sunnyvale Alliance Soccer Club (5th)	0–4	4%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	SF United FC (21st)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Livermore Fusion SC (18th)	1–2	30%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (9th)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Clovis Crossfire (2nd)	1–6	1%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Sanger Futbol Club (20th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat May 1	at	Elk Grove United (6th)	0–3	5%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

East County Revolution FC /09

-7

0.60

WLLLL

+0.71

+0.19

17.0

L	Sat Oct 10	at	San Ramon FC -RL (10th)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Sunnyvale Alliance Soccer Club (5th)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Turlock Academica Jrs (14th)	2–4
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	Clovis Crossfire (2nd)	0–6
W	Sat Aug 15	vs	Sheriffs FC (16th)	4–1

Next: Sun Aug 16 at South Valley Chivas · Sat Oct 24 at ALBION SC Central Valley · Sat Oct 31 vs Solano Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Aug 16 (no score yet)	at	South Valley Chivas (15th)	2–2	40%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	ALBION SC Central Valley (1st)	1–4	4%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Solano Surf (8th)	0–1	18%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Livermore Fusion SC (18th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (22nd)	2–1	58%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Sanger Futbol Club (20th)	2–1	49%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	South Valley United Soccer Club (13th)	1–3	13%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Union FC (12th)	0–2	15%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Stockton TLJ FC (3rd)	1–3	18%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Elk Grove United (6th)	1–2	17%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Walnut Creek Surf (4th)	1–2	13%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Livermore Fusion SC

-8

0.57

DLLLL

+0.18

-0.65

15.9

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	San Ramon FC -RL (10th)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Walnut Creek Surf (4th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Stockton TLJ FC (3rd)	2–5
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Sunnyvale Alliance Soccer Club (5th)	1–3
D	Sat Aug 22	vs	SF United FC (21st)	2–2
W	Sun Aug 16	at	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (22nd)	3–0
L	Sat Aug 15	vs	South Valley Chivas (15th)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Clovis Crossfire · Sat Nov 7 at East County Revolution FC /09 · Sat Mar 13 vs Fresno Heat See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Clovis Crossfire (2nd)	1–5	3%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	East County Revolution FC /09 (17th)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Fresno Heat (11th)	1–2	28%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Sheriffs FC (16th)	2–1	49%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Stanford Strikers (23rd)	3–0	81%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Legends FC SJ (19th)	3–1	66%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Turlock Academica Jrs (14th)	1–1	33%
·	Sat May 1	at	Santa Cruz Mid County YSC (7th)	0–2	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Legends FC SJ

-34

0.50

LLLWL

+0.77

-0.51

19.6

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Sunnyvale Alliance Soccer Club (5th)	1–11
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Sheriffs FC (16th)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Clovis Crossfire (2nd)	1–10
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (9th)	0–4
L	Sun Aug 16	at	Fresno Heat (11th)	2–9
L	Sat Aug 15	vs	South Valley United Soccer Club (13th)	1–6

Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sat Oct 24 vs Solano Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Sanger Futbol Club See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	vs	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (22nd)	2–2	43%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Solano Surf (8th)	1–4	4%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Sanger Futbol Club (20th)	2–2	33%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Turlock Academica Jrs (14th)	1–4	7%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Stanford Strikers (23rd)	3–2	53%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Elk Grove United (6th)	1–5	3%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Livermore Fusion SC (18th)	1–3	19%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Union FC (12th)	1–4	3%
·	Sat May 1	at	San Ramon FC -RL (10th)	1–6	2%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sanger Futbol Club

-15

0.20

LDLLL

+1.19

-0.03

19.7

L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Elk Grove United (6th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	ALBION SC Central Valley (1st)	1–8
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Fresno Heat (11th)	1–4
D	Sun Aug 16	at	Sunnyvale Alliance Soccer Club (5th)	1–1
L	Sat Aug 15	vs	Santa Cruz Mid County YSC (7th)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 10 vs South Valley Chivas · Sat Oct 24 at San Ramon FC -RL · Sat Oct 31 at Legends FC SJ See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	vs	South Valley Chivas (15th)	2–2	34%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	San Ramon FC -RL (10th)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Legends FC SJ (19th)	2–2	49%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Turlock Academica Jrs (14th)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (9th)	1–3	5%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	East County Revolution FC /09 (17th)	1–2	30%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Clovis Crossfire (2nd)	1–5	2%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Walnut Creek Surf (4th)	0–3	4%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Sheriffs FC (16th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat May 1	vs	South Valley United Soccer Club (13th)	1–3	10%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SF United FC

-15

0.14

DLLLL

+0.86

-0.47

19.0

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Stockton TLJ FC (3rd)	1–4
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Fresno Heat (11th)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Santa Cruz Mid County YSC (7th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Walnut Creek Surf (4th)	0–4
D	Sat Aug 22	at	Livermore Fusion SC (18th)	2–2
L	Sun Aug 16	at	Clovis Crossfire (2nd)	1–5
L	Sat Aug 15	vs	Solano Surf (8th)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Turlock Academica Jrs · Sat Oct 31 vs Union FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Stanford Strikers See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Turlock Academica Jrs (14th)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Union FC (12th)	0–2	15%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Stanford Strikers (23rd)	2–1	73%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Sheriffs FC (16th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	San Ramon FC -RL (10th)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Elk Grove United (6th)	0–3	8%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	South Valley United Soccer Club (13th)	1–3	13%
·	Sat May 1	at	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (22nd)	1–1	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Diablo Valley Futbol Club

-18

0.00

LLLLL

+0.60

-0.14

21.2

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Elk Grove United (6th)	1–6
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Clovis Crossfire (2nd)	1–7
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	San Ramon FC -RL (10th)	0–3
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Sheriffs FC (16th)	1–2
L	Sun Aug 16	vs	Livermore Fusion SC (18th)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 10 at Legends FC SJ · Sat Oct 24 vs Central Valley Premier FC -RL · Sat Oct 31 at Stockton TLJ FC See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	at	Legends FC SJ (19th)	2–2	39%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (9th)	1–4	5%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Stockton TLJ FC (3rd)	1–5	3%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Fresno Heat (11th)	1–4	7%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	East County Revolution FC /09 (17th)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Solano Surf (8th)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Santa Cruz Mid County YSC (7th)	0–3	4%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Walnut Creek Surf (4th)	0–4	2%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	South Valley Chivas (15th)	2–3	26%
·	Sat May 1	vs	SF United FC (21st)	1–1	31%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Stanford Strikers

-31

0.00

LLLLL

+0.78

+0.17

22.7

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (9th)	0–7
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Elk Grove United (6th)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 26	at	San Ramon FC -RL (10th)	0–10
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Solano Surf (8th)	0–3
L	Sun Aug 16	at	Sheriffs FC (16th)	1–2
L	Sat Aug 15	vs	ALBION SC Central Valley (1st)	0–6

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Fresno Heat · Sat Oct 31 at Santa Cruz Mid County YSC · Sat Nov 7 at SF United FC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Fresno Heat (11th)	1–4	4%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Santa Cruz Mid County YSC (7th)	0–4	1%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	SF United FC (21st)	1–2	12%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Walnut Creek Surf (4th)	0–5	1%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Legends FC SJ (19th)	2–3	30%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Livermore Fusion SC (18th)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Union FC (12th)	0–3	4%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Clovis Crossfire (2nd)	0–7	0%
·	Sat May 1	at	Stockton TLJ FC (3rd)	0–6	1%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.29 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.