South Valley Chivas
ECNL Regional League Boys · NorCal BU18/19 · 23 teams · South Valley Chivas (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 08:00 AM
Burton Middle School, Field 11v11 (ECNL RL) ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 2–4 (expected goals 2.2 for, 4.4 against · 0.54 expected points)
| Season so far | South Valley Chivas | South Valley United Soccer Club |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 15th | 13th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-0-2 | 3-0-3 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / game | 2.0 | 3.3 |
| Goals against / game | 5.3 | 2.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L L W | W L L W L |
| Biggest win | 3–2 at Livermore Fusion SC | 7–0 vs Sheriffs FC |
| Worst loss | 3–11 at Clovis Crossfire | 1–4 vs Walnut Creek Surf |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.39 | +0.87 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +1.06 | +0.33 |
Common opponents: Clovis Crossfire — we 3–11; they 1–2.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
South Valley United Soccer Club score 3.3/game — well above the league's 2.3.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 vs Union FC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 14%; a draw (11%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Early kickoff
Game time 08:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
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What a win does
Turlock Academica Jrs sit 14th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 1.00.A point moves us above Turlock Academica Jrs on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the South Valley United Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (South Valley Chivas – South Valley United Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.75 PPG |
16th▼ down 1 | 16th▼ down 1 | 19th▼ down 4 |
| Win 1.50 PPG |
13th▲ up 2 | 13th▲ up 2 | 13th▲ up 2 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
15th— holds | 15th— holds | 17th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 0.75 PPG |
16th▼ down 1 | 16th▼ down 1 | 19th▼ down 4 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–4 loss we fall to at least 16th even if every rival loses, and as low as 19th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th <1%
- 12th <1%
- 13th 2%
- 14th 6%
- 15th 12%
- 16th 16%
- 17th 17%
- 18th 15%
- 19th 13%
- 20th 10%
- 21st 6%
- 22nd 3%
- 23rd <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.60 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ALBION SC Central Valley | 2.67 (+1.67) | 2nd (2.34) | 38 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection |
| 2 | Clovis Crossfire | 2.57 (+1.57) | 1st (2.48) | 36 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection |
| 3 | Stockton TLJ FC | 2.50 (+1.50) | 4th (2.09) | 35 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection |
| 4 | Walnut Creek Surf | 2.33 (+1.33) | 3rd (2.22) | 32 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection |
| 5 | Sunnyvale Alliance Soccer Club | 2.29 (+1.29) | 7th (1.98) | 32 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 6 | Elk Grove United | 2.14 (+1.14) | 5th (2.04) | 30 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 7 | Santa Cruz Mid County YSC | 2.00 (+1.00) | 11th (1.83) | 27 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 8 | Solano Surf | 2.00 (+1.00) | 8th (1.96) | 27 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 9 | Central Valley Premier FC -RL | 1.86 (+0.86) | 9th (1.85) | 25 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 10 | San Ramon FC -RL | 1.86 (+0.86) | 6th (2.04) | 25 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 11 | Fresno Heat | 1.71 (+0.71) | 13th (1.57) | 23 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 12 | Union FC | 1.57 (+0.57) | 10th (1.84) | 21 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 13 | South Valley United Soccer Club | 1.50 (+0.50) | 12th (1.64) | Win next game |
| 14 | Turlock Academica Jrs | 1.00 (+0.00) | 14th (1.23) | A point next game |
How the results connect
8 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link South Valley Chivas to South Valley United Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.34 · 4th hardest of 23
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Aug 16 03:40 PM no score posted |
East County Revolution FC /09 17th · 1-0-4 · GD -7 |
Home Salinas Regional Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
2–2 | 1.42 | 1.11 | Upside |
| Sat Aug 22 02:00 PM no score posted |
Stockton TLJ FC 3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +8 |
Away far trip
Stockton Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
2–5 | 0.27 | 0.94 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 10 11:00 AM no score posted |
Sanger Futbol Club 20th · 0-1-4 · GD -15 |
Away far trip
Sanger Academy Charter School |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
2–2 | 1.61 | 1.05 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 24 08:00 AM |
South Valley United Soccer Club 13th · 3-0-3 · GD +8 |
Home Burton Middle School |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
2–4 | 0.54 | 0.98 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 10:00 AM |
Fresno Heat 11th · 4-0-3 · GD +3 |
Home Burton Middle School |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
2–3 | 0.84 | 0.96 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 10:00 AM |
Central Valley Premier FC -RL 9th · 4-1-2 · GD +11 |
Home Burton Middle School |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
1–4 | 0.48 | 0.91 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 12:00 PM |
Solano Surf 8th · 4-2-1 · GD +8 |
Away far trip
Octo Inn Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
1–3 | 0.38 | 0.85 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
Sunnyvale Alliance Soccer Club 5th · 5-1-1 · GD +15 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
1–4 | 0.34 | 0.81 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 12:00 PM |
San Ramon FC -RL 10th · 4-1-2 · GD +11 |
Away far trip
San Ramon Sports Park - Tiffany Roberts |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
1–4 | 0.30 | 0.76 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Turlock Academica Jrs 14th · 1-3-2 · GD -3 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
2–2 | 1.06 | 0.79 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 11:00 AM |
Diablo Valley Futbol Club 22nd · 0-0-5 · GD -18 |
Away far trip
Marathon/Tesoro Fields |
●●○○○ Lean win | 58% |
3–2 | 1.91 | 0.87 | Swing game |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
ALBION SC Central Valley 1st · 5-1-0 · GD +23 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
1–5 | 0.15 | 0.82 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | ALBION SC Central Valley | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 29 | 6 | +23 | 16 | 2.67 | WWWWD | -0.25 | +0.62 | 82% | 2.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Turlock Academica Jrs · Sat Oct 24 vs East County Revolution FC /09 · Sat Oct 31 at Clovis Crossfire See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Clovis Crossfire | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 41 | 9 | +32 | 18 | 2.57 | WWWWW | -1.07 | -0.13 | 96% | 1.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Livermore Fusion SC · Sat Oct 31 vs ALBION SC Central Valley · Sat Nov 7 vs Stockton TLJ FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Stockton TLJ FC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 13 | +8 | 15 | 2.50 | LWWWW | +0.29 | -0.10 | 35% | 5.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Aug 22 vs South Valley Chivas · Sat Oct 24 vs Walnut Creek Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Diablo Valley Futbol Club See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Walnut Creek Surf | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 14 | 2.33 | DWWWD | +0.16 | -0.52 | 65% | 4.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Stockton TLJ FC · Sat Oct 31 at Turlock Academica Jrs · Sat Nov 7 vs San Ramon FC -RL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Sunnyvale Alliance Soccer Club | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 8 | +15 | 16 | 2.29 | WWWWW | -0.64 | +0.65 | 23% | 7.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Santa Cruz Mid County YSC · Sat Oct 31 vs Elk Grove United · Sat Nov 7 vs Sheriffs FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Elk Grove United | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 15 | 2.14 | LWWWW | -0.77 | -0.26 | 29% | 6.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Sunnyvale Alliance Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 at ALBION SC Central Valley · Sat Mar 13 vs Stockton TLJ FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Santa Cruz Mid County YSC | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 12 | 2.00 | LWWWL | -0.10 | +0.14 | 9% | 9.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sunnyvale Alliance Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 vs Stanford Strikers · Sat Nov 7 at Union FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Solano Surf | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 14 | 2.00 | WWLDW | -0.11 | -0.38 | 16% | 7.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Legends FC SJ · Sat Oct 31 at East County Revolution FC /09 · Sat Nov 7 vs South Valley United Soccer Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Central Valley Premier FC -RL | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 11 | +11 | 13 | 1.86 | WLDWW | -0.41 | +0.08 | 8% | 8.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sat Oct 31 at South Valley United Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 at South Valley Chivas See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | San Ramon FC -RL | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 13 | 1.86 | LWWWW | -0.66 | -0.84 | 30% | 6.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sanger Futbol Club · Sat Oct 31 at Sheriffs FC · Sat Nov 7 at Walnut Creek Surf See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Fresno Heat | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 16 | +3 | 12 | 1.71 | WLLWL | -0.06 | -0.01 | 0% | 11.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Stanford Strikers · Sat Oct 31 at South Valley Chivas · Sat Nov 7 vs Diablo Valley Futbol Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Union FC | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 11 | 1.57 | WWLLD | +0.80 | -0.90 | 6% | 9.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sheriffs FC · Sat Oct 31 at SF United FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Santa Cruz Mid County YSC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | South Valley United Soccer Club | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 12 | +8 | 9 | 1.50 | LWLLW | +0.33 | -0.03 | 2% | 11.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at South Valley Chivas · Sat Oct 31 vs Central Valley Premier FC -RL · Sat Nov 7 at Solano Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Turlock Academica Jrs | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 6 | 1.00 | DLWDL | +0.64 | -0.20 | 0% | 14.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs ALBION SC Central Valley · Sat Oct 24 at SF United FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Walnut Creek Surf See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | South Valley Chivas | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 3 | 1.00 | WLL | +1.06 | +0.34 | 0% | 17.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Aug 16 vs East County Revolution FC /09 · Sat Aug 22 at Stockton TLJ FC · Sat Oct 10 at Sanger Futbol Club See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | Sheriffs FC | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 6 | 1.00 | WWLLL | -1.18 | +0.46 | 0% | 17.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Union FC · Sat Oct 31 vs San Ramon FC -RL · Sat Nov 7 at Sunnyvale Alliance Soccer Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | East County Revolution FC /09 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3 | 0.60 | WLLLL | +0.71 | +0.19 | 0% | 17.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Aug 16 at South Valley Chivas · Sat Oct 24 at ALBION SC Central Valley · Sat Oct 31 vs Solano Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 18 | Livermore Fusion SC | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 4 | 0.57 | DLLLL | +0.18 | -0.65 | 0% | 16.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Clovis Crossfire · Sat Nov 7 at East County Revolution FC /09 · Sat Mar 13 vs Fresno Heat See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 19 | Legends FC SJ | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 42 | -34 | 3 | 0.50 | LLLWL | +0.77 | -0.51 | 0% | 19.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sat Oct 24 vs Solano Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Sanger Futbol Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 20 | Sanger Futbol Club | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 18 | -15 | 1 | 0.20 | LDLLL | +1.19 | -0.03 | 0% | 19.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs South Valley Chivas · Sat Oct 24 at San Ramon FC -RL · Sat Oct 31 at Legends FC SJ See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 21 | SF United FC | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 1 | 0.14 | DLLLL | +0.86 | -0.47 | 0% | 19.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Turlock Academica Jrs · Sat Oct 31 vs Union FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Stanford Strikers See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 22 | Diablo Valley Futbol Club | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 21 | -18 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.60 | -0.14 | 0% | 21.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at Legends FC SJ · Sat Oct 24 vs Central Valley Premier FC -RL · Sat Oct 31 at Stockton TLJ FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 23 | Stanford Strikers | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 32 | -31 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.78 | +0.17 | 0% | 22.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Fresno Heat · Sat Oct 31 at Santa Cruz Mid County YSC · Sat Nov 7 at SF United FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.29 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.