East County Revolution FC /09
ECNL Regional League Boys · NorCal BU18/19 · 23 teams · Revolution FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:00 PM
Buchanan High School , field 1 ↗ far trip
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–4 (expected goals 1.0 for, 4.3 against · 0.19 expected points)
| Season so far | East County Revolution FC /09 | ALBION SC Central Valley |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 17th | 1st |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-0-4 | 5-1-0 |
| Points per game | 0.60 | 2.67 |
| Goals for / game | 1.2 | 4.8 |
| Goals against / game | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L L W | D W W W W |
| Biggest win | 4–1 vs Sheriffs FC | 8–1 at Sanger Futbol Club |
| Worst loss | 0–6 vs Clovis Crossfire | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.71 | +2.38 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.71 | -0.25 |
Common opponents: San Ramon FC -RL — we 0–1; they 5–1.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
ALBION SC Central Valley score 4.8/game — well above the league's 2.3.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Hard to break down
ALBION SC Central Valley concede only 1.0/game with 2 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–6 vs Clovis Crossfire, 0–1 vs Sunnyvale Alliance Soccer Club, 0–1 at San Ramon FC -RL.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 4%; a draw (7%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 02:00 PM at Buchanan High School .Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Sheriffs FC sit 16th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.60.A win moves us above Sheriffs FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the ALBION SC Central Valley game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (East County Revolution FC /09 – ALBION SC Central Valley) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.50 PPG |
18th▼ down 1 | 17th— holds | 20th▼ down 3 |
| Win 1.00 PPG |
15th▲ up 2 | 15th▲ up 2 | 17th— holds |
| Draw 0.67 PPG |
17th— holds | 17th— holds | 19th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 0.50 PPG |
18th▼ down 1 | 17th— holds | 20th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–4 loss we fall to at least 18th even if every rival loses, and as low as 20th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th <1%
- 12th 1%
- 13th 1%
- 14th 6%
- 15th 19%
- 16th 20%
- 17th 16%
- 18th 14%
- 19th 10%
- 20th 7%
- 21st 4%
- 22nd 2%
- 23rd <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ALBION SC Central Valley | 2.67 (+2.07) | 2nd (2.34) | 40 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Clovis Crossfire | 2.57 (+1.97) | 1st (2.48) | 39 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Stockton TLJ FC | 2.50 (+1.90) | 4th (2.09) | 37 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection |
| 4 | Walnut Creek Surf | 2.33 (+1.73) | 3rd (2.22) | 35 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection |
| 5 | Sunnyvale Alliance Soccer Club | 2.29 (+1.69) | 7th (1.98) | 34 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection |
| 6 | Elk Grove United | 2.14 (+1.54) | 5th (2.04) | 32 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection |
| 7 | Santa Cruz Mid County YSC | 2.00 (+1.40) | 11th (1.83) | 29 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 8 | Solano Surf | 2.00 (+1.40) | 8th (1.96) | 29 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection |
| 9 | Central Valley Premier FC -RL | 1.86 (+1.26) | 9th (1.85) | 27 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 10 | San Ramon FC -RL | 1.86 (+1.26) | 6th (2.04) | 27 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection |
| 11 | Fresno Heat | 1.71 (+1.11) | 13th (1.57) | 25 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 12 | Union FC | 1.57 (+0.97) | 10th (1.84) | 23 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 13 | South Valley United Soccer Club | 1.50 (+0.90) | 12th (1.64) | 21 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 14 | Turlock Academica Jrs | 1.00 (+0.40) | 14th (1.23) | Win next game |
| 15 | South Valley Chivas | 1.00 (+0.40) | 17th (0.82) | Win next game |
| 16 | Sheriffs FC | 1.00 (+0.40) | 18th (0.79) | Win next game |
How the results connect
8 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link East County Revolution FC /09 to ALBION SC Central Valley through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.19 · 5th hardest of 23
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Aug 16 03:40 PM no score posted |
South Valley Chivas 15th · 1-0-2 · GD -10 |
Away far trip
Salinas Regional Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
2–2 | 1.40 | 0.73 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 24 02:00 PM |
ALBION SC Central Valley 1st · 5-1-0 · GD +23 |
Away far trip
Buchanan High School |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
1–4 | 0.19 | 0.65 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 04:00 PM |
Solano Surf 8th · 4-2-1 · GD +8 |
Home Sunset Sports Complex (SSC) |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
0–1 | 0.76 | 0.67 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 04:00 PM |
Livermore Fusion SC 18th · 1-1-5 · GD -8 |
Home Sunset Sports Complex (SSC) |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
1–1 | 1.55 | 0.77 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 11:00 AM |
Diablo Valley Futbol Club 22nd · 0-0-5 · GD -18 |
Away Marathon/Tesoro Fields |
●●○○○ Lean win | 58% |
2–1 | 1.93 | 0.88 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 14 03:00 PM |
Sanger Futbol Club 20th · 0-1-4 · GD -15 |
Away far trip
Sanger Academy Charter School |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
2–1 | 1.68 | 0.96 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 04:00 PM |
South Valley United Soccer Club 13th · 3-0-3 · GD +8 |
Away far trip
Neighborhood Church |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–3 | 0.53 | 0.92 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 02:15 PM |
Union FC 12th · 3-2-2 · GD +4 |
Away far trip
Larchmont Community Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
0–2 | 0.64 | 0.90 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 04:00 PM |
Stockton TLJ FC 3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +8 |
Home Sunset Sports Complex (SSC) |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–3 | 0.68 | 0.88 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 04:00 PM |
Elk Grove United 6th · 5-0-2 · GD +11 |
Home Sunset Sports Complex (SSC) |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
1–2 | 0.69 | 0.87 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 04:00 PM |
Walnut Creek Surf 4th · 4-2-0 · GD +11 |
Home Sunset Sports Complex (SSC) |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–2 | 0.57 | 0.85 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ALBION SC Central Valley | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 29 | 6 | +23 | 16 | 2.67 | WWWWD | -0.25 | +0.62 | 81% | 3.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Turlock Academica Jrs · Sat Oct 24 vs East County Revolution FC /09 · Sat Oct 31 at Clovis Crossfire See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Clovis Crossfire | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 41 | 9 | +32 | 18 | 2.57 | WWWWW | -1.07 | -0.13 | 96% | 1.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Livermore Fusion SC · Sat Oct 31 vs ALBION SC Central Valley · Sat Nov 7 vs Stockton TLJ FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Stockton TLJ FC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 13 | +8 | 15 | 2.50 | LWWWW | +0.29 | -0.10 | 36% | 5.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Aug 22 vs South Valley Chivas · Sat Oct 24 vs Walnut Creek Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Diablo Valley Futbol Club See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Walnut Creek Surf | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 14 | 2.33 | DWWWD | +0.16 | -0.52 | 63% | 4.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Stockton TLJ FC · Sat Oct 31 at Turlock Academica Jrs · Sat Nov 7 vs San Ramon FC -RL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Sunnyvale Alliance Soccer Club | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 8 | +15 | 16 | 2.29 | WWWWW | -0.64 | +0.65 | 22% | 7.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Santa Cruz Mid County YSC · Sat Oct 31 vs Elk Grove United · Sat Nov 7 vs Sheriffs FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Elk Grove United | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 15 | 2.14 | LWWWW | -0.77 | -0.26 | 29% | 6.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Sunnyvale Alliance Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 at ALBION SC Central Valley · Sat Mar 13 vs Stockton TLJ FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Santa Cruz Mid County YSC | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 12 | 2.00 | LWWWL | -0.10 | +0.14 | 9% | 9.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sunnyvale Alliance Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 vs Stanford Strikers · Sat Nov 7 at Union FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Solano Surf | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 14 | 2.00 | WWLDW | -0.11 | -0.38 | 18% | 7.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Legends FC SJ · Sat Oct 31 at East County Revolution FC /09 · Sat Nov 7 vs South Valley United Soccer Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Central Valley Premier FC -RL | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 11 | +11 | 13 | 1.86 | WLDWW | -0.41 | +0.08 | 9% | 8.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sat Oct 31 at South Valley United Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 at South Valley Chivas See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | San Ramon FC -RL | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 13 | 1.86 | LWWWW | -0.66 | -0.84 | 30% | 6.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sanger Futbol Club · Sat Oct 31 at Sheriffs FC · Sat Nov 7 at Walnut Creek Surf See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Fresno Heat | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 16 | +3 | 12 | 1.71 | WLLWL | -0.06 | -0.01 | 0% | 11.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Stanford Strikers · Sat Oct 31 at South Valley Chivas · Sat Nov 7 vs Diablo Valley Futbol Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Union FC | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 11 | 1.57 | WWLLD | +0.80 | -0.90 | 6% | 9.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sheriffs FC · Sat Oct 31 at SF United FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Santa Cruz Mid County YSC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | South Valley United Soccer Club | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 12 | +8 | 9 | 1.50 | LWLLW | +0.33 | -0.03 | 2% | 11.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at South Valley Chivas · Sat Oct 31 vs Central Valley Premier FC -RL · Sat Nov 7 at Solano Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Turlock Academica Jrs | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 6 | 1.00 | DLWDL | +0.64 | -0.20 | 0% | 14.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs ALBION SC Central Valley · Sat Oct 24 at SF United FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Walnut Creek Surf See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | South Valley Chivas | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 3 | 1.00 | WLL | +1.06 | +0.34 | 0% | 17.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Aug 16 vs East County Revolution FC /09 · Sat Aug 22 at Stockton TLJ FC · Sat Oct 10 at Sanger Futbol Club See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | Sheriffs FC | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 6 | 1.00 | WWLLL | -1.18 | +0.46 | 0% | 17.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Union FC · Sat Oct 31 vs San Ramon FC -RL · Sat Nov 7 at Sunnyvale Alliance Soccer Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | East County Revolution FC /09 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3 | 0.60 | WLLLL | +0.71 | +0.19 | 0% | 16.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Aug 16 at South Valley Chivas · Sat Oct 24 at ALBION SC Central Valley · Sat Oct 31 vs Solano Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 18 | Livermore Fusion SC | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 4 | 0.57 | DLLLL | +0.18 | -0.65 | 0% | 16.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Clovis Crossfire · Sat Nov 7 at East County Revolution FC /09 · Sat Mar 13 vs Fresno Heat See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 19 | Legends FC SJ | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 42 | -34 | 3 | 0.50 | LLLWL | +0.77 | -0.51 | 0% | 19.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sat Oct 24 vs Solano Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Sanger Futbol Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 20 | Sanger Futbol Club | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 18 | -15 | 1 | 0.20 | LDLLL | +1.19 | -0.03 | 0% | 19.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs South Valley Chivas · Sat Oct 24 at San Ramon FC -RL · Sat Oct 31 at Legends FC SJ See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 21 | SF United FC | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 1 | 0.14 | DLLLL | +0.86 | -0.47 | 0% | 19.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Turlock Academica Jrs · Sat Oct 31 vs Union FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Stanford Strikers See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 22 | Diablo Valley Futbol Club | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 21 | -18 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.60 | -0.14 | 0% | 21.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at Legends FC SJ · Sat Oct 24 vs Central Valley Premier FC -RL · Sat Oct 31 at Stockton TLJ FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 23 | Stanford Strikers | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 32 | -31 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.78 | +0.17 | 0% | 22.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Fresno Heat · Sat Oct 31 at Santa Cruz Mid County YSC · Sat Nov 7 at SF United FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.29 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.