TableChase Clubs

Clovis Crossfire

ECNL Regional League Boys · NorCal BU18/19 · 23 teams · Clovis Crossfire (all teams)

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2nd
6-0-1 record · 7 played
2.57 points per game
+32 goal diff · 41–9
WWWWWlast 5
95% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.9
-1.07 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:00 PM

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Clovis Crossfire
2nd · 2.57 PPG
vs
Livermore Fusion SC
18th · 0.57 PPG

Clovis North High School, Field 3 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 5–1 (expected goals 5.1 for, 1.2 against · 2.81 expected points)

Season so farClovis CrossfireLivermore Fusion SC
Position2nd18th
Record (W-D-L)6-0-11-1-5
Points per game2.570.57
Goals for / game5.91.4
Goals against / game1.32.6
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless12
Form (recent first)W W W W WL L L L D
Biggest win10–1 vs Legends FC SJ3–0 at Diablo Valley Futbol Club
Worst loss0–2 at Union FC2–5 vs Stockton TLJ FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+2.73-0.77
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.07+0.18

Common opponents: SF United FC — we 5–1; they 2–2. Diablo Valley Futbol Club — we 7–1; they 3–0. South Valley Chivas — we 11–3; they 2–3.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 at Union FC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 92% chance; likely score 5–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Livermore Fusion SC have lost 4 straight (form: DLLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Livermore Fusion SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Clovis Crossfire – Livermore Fusion SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.63 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Win
2.63 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.38 PPG
3rd▼ down 1 2nd— holds 4th▼ down 2
Loss
2.25 PPG
5th▼ down 3 3rd▼ down 1 5th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 5–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

55% finish 1st
95% top 4
5% below the top 4
1.9 average finish
  1. 1st 55%
  2. 2nd 23%
  3. 3rd 11%
  4. 4th 5%
  5. 5th 3%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th
  19. 19th
  20. 20th
  21. 21st
  22. 22nd
  23. 23rd

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.81 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 ALBION SC Central Valley 2.67 (+0.10) 2nd (2.34) 25 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection

How the results connect

14 chains · 12 teams

Paths of results that link Clovis Crossfire to Livermore Fusion SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

13 favour us
1 favour them
+3.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
7–1 0–3 5–1 2–2 11–3 3–2 2–1 1–3 3–1 1–4 3–0 10–1 1–11 0–2 3–3 3–0 0–2 0–4 1–4 5–2 0–3 2–0 Clovis Crossfire 2nd Diablo Valley Futbo… 22nd SF United FC 21st South Valley Chivas 15th South Valley United… 13th Legends FC SJ 19th Union FC 12th Sunnyvale Alliance … 5th Walnut Creek Surf 4th Stockton TLJ FC 3rd San Ramon FC -RL 10th Livermore Fusion SC 18th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 12th 23rd Aug 15 Aug 22 Sep 19 Oct 2 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.13 · 13th hardest of 23

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
02:00 PM
Livermore Fusion SC
18th · 1-1-5 · GD -8
Home
Clovis North High School
●○○○○ Favorable
92%
5–1 2.81 2.60 Bank it
Sat Oct 31
02:00 PM
ALBION SC Central Valley
1st · 5-1-0 · GD +23
Home
Fresno Christian Schools
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
3–2 1.60 2.49 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
02:00 PM
Stockton TLJ FC
3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +8
Home
Fresno Christian Schools
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
4–2 2.33 2.47 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
01:00 PM
Sunnyvale Alliance Soccer Club
5th · 5-1-1 · GD +15
Away far trip
Fair Oaks Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
2–2 1.64 2.40 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
02:00 PM
Sanger Futbol Club
20th · 0-1-4 · GD -15
Away far trip
Sanger Academy Charter School
●○○○○ Favorable
94%
5–1 2.86 2.44 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
02:00 PM
Fresno Heat
11th · 4-0-3 · GD +3
Home
Fresno Christian Schools
●○○○○ Favorable
84%
4–1 2.61 2.45 Bank it
Sat Apr 17
02:00 PM
Sheriffs FC
16th · 2-0-4 · GD -12
Home
Fresno Christian Schools
●○○○○ Favorable
97%
6–1 2.93 2.48 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
TBD
Stanford Strikers
23rd · 0-0-6 · GD -31
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
99%
7–0 2.98 2.52 Bank it
Sat May 1
12:00 PM
Central Valley Premier FC -RL
9th · 4-1-2 · GD +11
Away far trip
Riverway Sports Park
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
3–2 1.93 2.48 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 ALBION SC Central Valley 6510 296+23 162.67 WWWWD -0.25 +0.62 81% 3.0
2 Clovis Crossfire 7601 419+32 182.57 WWWWW -1.07 -0.13 95% 1.9
3 Stockton TLJ FC 6501 2113+8 152.50 LWWWW +0.29 -0.10 36% 5.9
4 Walnut Creek Surf 6420 165+11 142.33 DWWWD +0.16 -0.52 65% 4.2
5 Sunnyvale Alliance Soccer Club 7511 238+15 162.29 WWWWW -0.64 +0.65 21% 7.0
6 Elk Grove United 7502 198+11 152.14 LWWWW -0.77 -0.26 29% 6.3
7 Santa Cruz Mid County YSC 6402 135+8 122.00 LWWWL -0.10 +0.14 9% 9.0
8 Solano Surf 7421 135+8 142.00 WWLDW -0.11 -0.38 18% 7.3
9 Central Valley Premier FC -RL 7412 2211+11 131.86 WLDWW -0.41 +0.08 8% 8.7
10 San Ramon FC -RL 7412 209+11 131.86 LWWWW -0.66 -0.84 30% 6.3
11 Fresno Heat 7403 1916+3 121.71 WLLWL -0.06 -0.01 0% 11.8
12 Union FC 7322 128+4 111.57 WWLLD +0.80 -0.90 6% 9.1
13 South Valley United Soccer Club 6303 2012+8 91.50 LWLLW +0.33 -0.03 2% 11.0
14 Turlock Academica Jrs 6132 912-3 61.00 DLWDL +0.64 -0.20 0% 14.2
15 South Valley Chivas 3102 616-10 31.00 WLL +1.06 +0.34 0% 17.5
16 Sheriffs FC 6204 719-12 61.00 WWLLL -1.18 +0.46 0% 17.6
17 East County Revolution FC /09 5104 613-7 30.60 WLLLL +0.71 +0.19 0% 17.0
18 Livermore Fusion SC 7115 1018-8 40.57 DLLLL +0.18 -0.65 0% 16.0
19 Legends FC SJ 6105 842-34 30.50 LLLWL +0.77 -0.51 0% 19.7
20 Sanger Futbol Club 5014 318-15 10.20 LDLLL +1.19 -0.03 0% 19.7
21 SF United FC 7016 621-15 10.14 DLLLL +0.86 -0.47 0% 19.1
22 Diablo Valley Futbol Club 5005 321-18 00.00 LLLLL +0.60 -0.14 0% 21.2
23 Stanford Strikers 6006 132-31 00.00 LLLLL +0.78 +0.17 0% 22.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.29 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.