Sanger Futbol Club
ECNL Regional League Boys · NorCal BU18/19 · 23 teams · Sanger FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:00 PM
San Ramon Sports Park - Tiffany Roberts, Field 1 ↗ far trip
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 0–3 (expected goals 0.9 for, 3.6 against · 0.25 expected points)
| Season so far | Sanger Futbol Club | San Ramon FC -RL |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 20th | 10th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-1-4 | 4-1-2 |
| Points per game | 0.20 | 1.86 |
| Goals for / game | 0.6 | 2.9 |
| Goals against / game | 3.6 | 1.3 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 4 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L D L | W W W W L |
| Biggest win | — | 10–0 vs Stanford Strikers |
| Worst loss | 1–8 vs ALBION SC Central Valley | 1–5 at ALBION SC Central Valley |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.57 | +0.99 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +1.19 | -0.66 |
Common opponents: ALBION SC Central Valley — we 1–8; they 1–5.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 vs Santa Cruz Mid County YSC, 0–3 vs Elk Grove United.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 5%; a draw (9%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
-
They arrive in form
San Ramon FC -RL have won 4 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
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Away game
Kickoff 02:00 PM at San Ramon Sports Park - Tiffany Roberts.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Legends FC SJ sit 19th on 0.50 PPG; we are on 0.20.A point moves us above Legends FC SJ on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the San Ramon FC -RL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sanger Futbol Club – San Ramon FC -RL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.17 PPG |
20th— holds | 20th— holds | 23rd▼ down 3 |
| Win 0.67 PPG |
17th▲ up 3 | 17th▲ up 3 | 20th— holds |
| Draw 0.33 PPG |
20th— holds | 20th— holds | 23rd▼ down 3 |
| Loss 0.17 PPG |
20th— holds | 20th— holds | 23rd▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–3 loss we stay 20th even if every rival loses, and as low as 23rd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th
- 12th
- 13th
- 14th 1%
- 15th 3%
- 16th 5%
- 17th 8%
- 18th 11%
- 19th 14%
- 20th 17%
- 21st 23%
- 22nd 16%
- 23rd 3%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.07 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ALBION SC Central Valley | 2.67 (+2.47) | 2nd (2.34) | 40 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Clovis Crossfire | 2.57 (+2.37) | 1st (2.48) | 38 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Stockton TLJ FC | 2.50 (+2.30) | 4th (2.09) | 37 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Walnut Creek Surf | 2.33 (+2.13) | 3rd (2.22) | 34 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | Sunnyvale Alliance Soccer Club | 2.29 (+2.09) | 7th (1.98) | 34 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection |
| 6 | Elk Grove United | 2.14 (+1.94) | 5th (2.04) | 32 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection |
| 7 | Santa Cruz Mid County YSC | 2.00 (+1.80) | 11th (1.83) | 29 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 8 | Solano Surf | 2.00 (+1.80) | 8th (1.96) | 29 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection |
| 9 | Central Valley Premier FC -RL | 1.86 (+1.66) | 9th (1.85) | 27 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 10 | San Ramon FC -RL | 1.86 (+1.66) | 6th (2.04) | 27 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection |
| 11 | Fresno Heat | 1.71 (+1.51) | 13th (1.57) | 25 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 12 | Union FC | 1.57 (+1.37) | 10th (1.84) | 23 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 13 | South Valley United Soccer Club | 1.50 (+1.30) | 12th (1.64) | 22 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 14 | Turlock Academica Jrs | 1.00 (+0.80) | 14th (1.23) | 14 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection |
| 15 | South Valley Chivas | 1.00 (+0.80) | 17th (0.82) | 14 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection |
| 16 | Sheriffs FC | 1.00 (+0.80) | 18th (0.79) | 14 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection |
| 17 | East County Revolution FC /09 | 0.60 (+0.40) | 16th (0.85) | A point next game |
| 18 | Livermore Fusion SC | 0.57 (+0.37) | 15th (0.96) | A point next game |
| 19 | Legends FC SJ | 0.50 (+0.30) | 20th (0.60) | A point next game |
How the results connect
9 chains · 13 teams
Paths of results that link Sanger Futbol Club to San Ramon FC -RL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.03 · 10th hardest of 23
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 10 11:00 AM no score posted |
South Valley Chivas 15th · 1-0-2 · GD -10 |
Home Sanger Academy Charter School |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
2–2 | 1.21 | 0.37 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 24 02:00 PM |
San Ramon FC -RL 10th · 4-1-2 · GD +11 |
Away far trip
San Ramon Sports Park - Tiffany Roberts |
●●●●● Very tough | 5% |
0–3 | 0.25 | 0.35 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 04:45 PM |
Legends FC SJ 19th · 1-0-5 · GD -34 |
Away far trip
Andrew Hill High School · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
2–2 | 1.65 | 0.51 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 02:30 PM |
Turlock Academica Jrs 14th · 1-3-2 · GD -3 |
Home Sanger Academy Charter School |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–2 | 0.82 | 0.55 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 01:00 PM |
Central Valley Premier FC -RL 9th · 4-1-2 · GD +11 |
Away far trip
Riverway Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 5% |
1–3 | 0.24 | 0.52 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 03:00 PM |
East County Revolution FC /09 17th · 1-0-4 · GD -7 |
Home Sanger Academy Charter School |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
1–2 | 1.10 | 0.57 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 02:00 PM |
Clovis Crossfire 2nd · 6-0-1 · GD +32 |
Home Sanger Academy Charter School |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
1–5 | 0.11 | 0.53 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Walnut Creek Surf 4th · 4-2-0 · GD +11 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
0–3 | 0.20 | 0.51 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 09:30 AM |
Sheriffs FC 16th · 2-0-4 · GD -12 |
Away far trip
Edendale Middle School |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
1–1 | 1.25 | 0.56 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 12:00 PM |
South Valley United Soccer Club 13th · 3-0-3 · GD +8 |
Home Sanger Academy Charter School |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
1–3 | 0.42 | 0.55 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ALBION SC Central Valley | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 29 | 6 | +23 | 16 | 2.67 | WWWWD | -0.25 | +0.62 | 82% | 3.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Turlock Academica Jrs · Sat Oct 24 vs East County Revolution FC /09 · Sat Oct 31 at Clovis Crossfire See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Clovis Crossfire | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 41 | 9 | +32 | 18 | 2.57 | WWWWW | -1.07 | -0.13 | 95% | 1.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Livermore Fusion SC · Sat Oct 31 vs ALBION SC Central Valley · Sat Nov 7 vs Stockton TLJ FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Stockton TLJ FC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 13 | +8 | 15 | 2.50 | LWWWW | +0.29 | -0.10 | 36% | 5.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Aug 22 vs South Valley Chivas · Sat Oct 24 vs Walnut Creek Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Diablo Valley Futbol Club See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Walnut Creek Surf | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 14 | 2.33 | DWWWD | +0.16 | -0.52 | 63% | 4.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Stockton TLJ FC · Sat Oct 31 at Turlock Academica Jrs · Sat Nov 7 vs San Ramon FC -RL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Sunnyvale Alliance Soccer Club | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 8 | +15 | 16 | 2.29 | WWWWW | -0.64 | +0.65 | 22% | 7.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Santa Cruz Mid County YSC · Sat Oct 31 vs Elk Grove United · Sat Nov 7 vs Sheriffs FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Elk Grove United | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 15 | 2.14 | LWWWW | -0.77 | -0.26 | 30% | 6.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Sunnyvale Alliance Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 at ALBION SC Central Valley · Sat Mar 13 vs Stockton TLJ FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Santa Cruz Mid County YSC | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 12 | 2.00 | LWWWL | -0.10 | +0.14 | 10% | 8.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sunnyvale Alliance Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 vs Stanford Strikers · Sat Nov 7 at Union FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Solano Surf | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 14 | 2.00 | WWLDW | -0.11 | -0.38 | 17% | 7.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Legends FC SJ · Sat Oct 31 at East County Revolution FC /09 · Sat Nov 7 vs South Valley United Soccer Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Central Valley Premier FC -RL | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 11 | +11 | 13 | 1.86 | WLDWW | -0.41 | +0.08 | 10% | 8.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sat Oct 31 at South Valley United Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 at South Valley Chivas See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | San Ramon FC -RL | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 13 | 1.86 | LWWWW | -0.66 | -0.84 | 29% | 6.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sanger Futbol Club · Sat Oct 31 at Sheriffs FC · Sat Nov 7 at Walnut Creek Surf See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Fresno Heat | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 16 | +3 | 12 | 1.71 | WLLWL | -0.06 | -0.01 | 0% | 11.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Stanford Strikers · Sat Oct 31 at South Valley Chivas · Sat Nov 7 vs Diablo Valley Futbol Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Union FC | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 11 | 1.57 | WWLLD | +0.80 | -0.90 | 6% | 9.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sheriffs FC · Sat Oct 31 at SF United FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Santa Cruz Mid County YSC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | South Valley United Soccer Club | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 12 | +8 | 9 | 1.50 | LWLLW | +0.33 | -0.03 | 2% | 11.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at South Valley Chivas · Sat Oct 31 vs Central Valley Premier FC -RL · Sat Nov 7 at Solano Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Turlock Academica Jrs | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 6 | 1.00 | DLWDL | +0.64 | -0.20 | 0% | 14.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs ALBION SC Central Valley · Sat Oct 24 at SF United FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Walnut Creek Surf See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | South Valley Chivas | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 3 | 1.00 | WLL | +1.06 | +0.34 | 0% | 17.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Aug 16 vs East County Revolution FC /09 · Sat Aug 22 at Stockton TLJ FC · Sat Oct 10 at Sanger Futbol Club See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | Sheriffs FC | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 6 | 1.00 | WWLLL | -1.18 | +0.46 | 0% | 17.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Union FC · Sat Oct 31 vs San Ramon FC -RL · Sat Nov 7 at Sunnyvale Alliance Soccer Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | East County Revolution FC /09 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3 | 0.60 | WLLLL | +0.71 | +0.19 | 0% | 17.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Aug 16 at South Valley Chivas · Sat Oct 24 at ALBION SC Central Valley · Sat Oct 31 vs Solano Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 18 | Livermore Fusion SC | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 4 | 0.57 | DLLLL | +0.18 | -0.65 | 0% | 15.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Clovis Crossfire · Sat Nov 7 at East County Revolution FC /09 · Sat Mar 13 vs Fresno Heat See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 19 | Legends FC SJ | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 42 | -34 | 3 | 0.50 | LLLWL | +0.77 | -0.51 | 0% | 19.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sat Oct 24 vs Solano Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Sanger Futbol Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 20 | Sanger Futbol Club | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 18 | -15 | 1 | 0.20 | LDLLL | +1.19 | -0.03 | 0% | 19.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs South Valley Chivas · Sat Oct 24 at San Ramon FC -RL · Sat Oct 31 at Legends FC SJ See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 21 | SF United FC | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 1 | 0.14 | DLLLL | +0.86 | -0.47 | 0% | 19.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Turlock Academica Jrs · Sat Oct 31 vs Union FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Stanford Strikers See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 22 | Diablo Valley Futbol Club | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 21 | -18 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.60 | -0.14 | 0% | 21.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at Legends FC SJ · Sat Oct 24 vs Central Valley Premier FC -RL · Sat Oct 31 at Stockton TLJ FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 23 | Stanford Strikers | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 32 | -31 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.78 | +0.17 | 0% | 22.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Fresno Heat · Sat Oct 31 at Santa Cruz Mid County YSC · Sat Nov 7 at SF United FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.29 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.