TableChase Clubs

Tahuichi F.C. Youth Soccer

ECNL Regional League Boys · NorCal BU17 · 22 teams · Tahuichi F.C. Youth Soccer (all teams)

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13th
2-1-3 record · 6 played
1.17 points per game
-4 goal diff · 5–9
LWDLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 13.8
-0.11 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:00 PM

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Tahuichi F.C. Youth Soccer
13th · 1.17 PPG
vs
East Bay United
22nd · 0.00 PPG

Maxwell Farms Regional Park, Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 1–0 (expected goals 1.6 for, 0.6 against · 2.11 expected points)

Season so farTahuichi F.C. Youth SoccerEast Bay United
Position13th22nd
Record (W-D-L)2-1-30-0-5
Points per game1.170.00
Goals for / game0.80.0
Goals against / game1.53.0
Clean sheets20
Held scoreless25
Form (recent first)L L D W LL L L L L
Biggest win1–0 vs Ceres Rush Athletico—
Worst loss1–5 at Silicon Valley Eagles0–6 at Stanford Strikers
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.43-1.72
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.11+0.13

Common opponents: Silicon Valley Eagles — we 1–5; they 0–1. South Valley United Soccer Club — we 0–0; they 0–4. Diablo Valley Futbol Club — we 1–2; they 0–1.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    East Bay United average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.1); blanked in 5 of 5.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–0 at South Valley United Soccer Club, 0–1 at Sacramento Alliance SC 2009/10B.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 62% / draw 24% / loss 14%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Confidence is low on their side
    East Bay United have lost 5 straight (form: LLLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • What a win does
    San Jose Rush sit 12th on 1.33 PPG; we are on 1.17.

    A point moves us above San Jose Rush on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the East Bay United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Tahuichi F.C. Youth Soccer – East Bay United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.43 PPG
11th▲ up 2 10th▲ up 3 12th▲ up 1
Win
1.43 PPG
11th▲ up 2 10th▲ up 3 12th▲ up 1
Draw
1.14 PPG
13th— holds 14th▼ down 1 15th▼ down 2
Loss
1.00 PPG
15th▼ down 2 15th▼ down 2 16th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–0 win we finish as high as 9th if every rival drops points, and as low as 12th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
13.8 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th 4%
  10. 10th 5%
  11. 11th 8%
  12. 12th 10%
  13. 13th 11%
  14. 14th 15%
  15. 15th 16%
  16. 16th 13%
  17. 17th 9%
  18. 18th 4%
  19. 19th 1%
  20. 20th <1%
  21. 21st <1%
  22. 22nd

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.27 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Livermore Fusion SC 3.00 (+1.83) 1st (2.55) 38 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Clovis Crossfire 2.67 (+1.50) 2nd (2.38) 34 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Reno APEX Soccer Club 2.57 (+1.40) 3rd (2.35) 32 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Silicon Valley Eagles 2.43 (+1.26) 4th (2.15) 30 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
5 Central Valley Premier FC -RL 2.14 (+0.97) 7th (1.81) 26 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
6 SF United FC 2.00 (+0.83) 5th (2.15) 23 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
7 East County Revolution FC 1.86 (+0.69) 6th (1.85) 21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
8 Sacramento Alliance SC 2009/10B 1.83 (+0.66) 8th (1.78) 21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
9 Stanford Strikers 1.50 (+0.33) 12th (1.36) 16 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection
10 Diablo Valley Futbol Club 1.50 (+0.33) 13th (1.31) 16 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection
11 South Valley United Soccer Club 1.33 (+0.16) 9th (1.49) A point next game
12 San Jose Rush 1.33 (+0.16) 10th (1.42) A point next game

How the results connect

6 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Tahuichi F.C. Youth Soccer to East Bay United through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
1 even
2 favour them
+1.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–2 1–0 1–5 1–0 0–0 4–0 1–0 1–2 0–1 2–4 7–2 3–0 Tahuichi F.C. Youth… 13th Diablo Valley Futbo… 10th Silicon Valley Eagl… 4th South Valley United… 11th Ceres Rush Athletico 18th Sacramento Alliance… 8th Walnut Creek Surf 15th East Bay United 22nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

6 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 11th 22nd Aug 15 Aug 22 Sep 19 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.01 · 10th hardest of 22

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
02:00 PM
East Bay United
22nd · 0-0-5 · GD -15
Home
Maxwell Farms Regional Park
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
1–0 2.11 1.30 Swing game
Sun Oct 25
03:00 PM
Stanford Strikers
9th · 3-0-3 · GD -1
Home
Trione Soccer Complex
●●●●○ Tough
36%
1–2 1.28 1.30 Upside
Sat Oct 31
04:00 PM
San Jose Rush
12th · 2-2-2 · GD +3
Away far trip
San Jose High School · turf
●●●●● Very tough
20%
0–1 0.83 1.25 Upside
Sat Nov 7
01:15 PM
Reno APEX Soccer Club
3rd · 6-0-1 · GD +25
Away far trip
Lyman Gilmore 11v11
●●●●● Very tough
7%
0–3 0.31 1.15 Upside
Sat Mar 13
TBD
Stockton TLJ FC
17th · 1-1-4 · GD -12
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
1–1 1.66 1.20 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
TBD
Turlock Academica Jrs
21st · 0-1-6 · GD -11
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
1–0 1.81 1.25 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
02:55 PM
Legends FC
14th · 1-2-2 · GD -2
Away far trip
Andrew Hill High School · turf
●●●●○ Tough
28%
1–1 1.09 1.24 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD
SF United FC
6th · 4-2-1 · GD +10
Home
●●●●● Very tough
20%
1–2 0.80 1.21 Upside
Sun Apr 25
02:00 PM
East County Revolution FC
7th · 4-1-2 · GD +6
Away far trip
Sunset Sports Complex (SSC)
●●●●● Very tough
17%
1–2 0.69 1.17 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Livermore Fusion SC 7700 237+16 213.00 WWWWW -0.15 -0.10 97% 1.8
2 Clovis Crossfire 6510 193+16 162.67 DWWWW +0.07 +0.38 86% 2.8
3 Reno APEX Soccer Club 7601 349+25 182.57 WLWWW -0.81 +0.34 84% 3.0
4 Silicon Valley Eagles 7520 189+9 172.43 WWDDW -0.31 -0.12 51% 4.4
5 Central Valley Premier FC -RL 7430 1811+7 152.14 DDWDW -0.38 +0.46 9% 7.3
6 SF United FC 7421 2111+10 142.00 LWDWW -0.08 -0.68 55% 4.4
7 East County Revolution FC 7412 2014+6 131.86 LWWWD +0.23 -0.13 9% 6.9
8 Sacramento Alliance SC 2009/10B 6321 139+4 111.83 DWWWD +0.48 -0.16 8% 7.7
9 Stanford Strikers 6303 1920-1 91.50 LWWWL -0.22 +0.08 0% 12.0
10 Diablo Valley Futbol Club 6303 812-4 91.50 LLLWW +0.01 -0.14 0% 12.6
11 South Valley United Soccer Club 6222 1610+6 81.33 WDDWL -0.01 +0.09 1% 10.3
12 San Jose Rush 6222 129+3 81.33 DDLLW +0.16 +0.23 0% 11.2
13 Tahuichi F.C. Youth Soccer 6213 59-4 71.17 LWDLL -0.11 +0.01 0% 13.8
14 Legends FC 5122 79-2 51.00 WDDLL +0.31 -0.51 0% 11.9
15 Walnut Creek Surf 6204 1417-3 61.00 WWLLL +0.14 -0.38 0% 12.6
16 San Ramon FC 7205 1223-11 60.86 LWLLL +0.50 -0.13 0% 16.1
17 Stockton TLJ FC 6114 921-12 40.67 LDLWL +0.71 -0.35 0% 16.1
18 Ceres Rush Athletico 7115 920-11 40.57 LLLLW +0.28 +0.09 0% 18.0
19 Solano Surf 6105 927-18 30.50 LLWLL +0.05 -0.02 0% 19.4
20 Union FC 5014 616-10 10.20 LDLLL -0.28 -0.03 0% 19.1
21 Turlock Academica Jrs 7016 213-11 10.14 LLLLL +0.23 +0.10 0% 20.4
22 East Bay United 5005 015-15 00.00 LLLLL +0.13 +0.32 0% 21.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.09 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.