Legends FC
ECNL Regional League Boys · NorCal BU17 · 22 teams · Legends FC (SJ) (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:05 PM
Andrew Hill High School, Turf ↗ · turf
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.1 for, 1.4 against · 2.27 expected points)
| Season so far | Legends FC | Solano Surf |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 14th | 19th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-2-2 | 1-0-5 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Goals against / game | 1.8 | 4.5 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L L D D W | L L W L L |
| Biggest win | 3–2 vs South Valley United Soccer Club | 4–3 at Union FC |
| Worst loss | 0–2 at Clovis Crossfire | 0–9 vs Reno APEX Soccer Club |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.19 | -1.88 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.31 | +0.05 |
Common opponents: Ceres Rush Athletico — we 2–2; they 2–5.
Game plan
-
They leak goals — be greedy
Solano Surf concede 4.5/game; worst result 0–9 vs Reno APEX Soccer Club.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 at Clovis Crossfire.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 71% chance; likely score 3–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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What a win does
Tahuichi F.C. Youth Soccer sit 13th on 1.17 PPG; we are on 1.00.A point moves us above Tahuichi F.C. Youth Soccer on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Solano Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Legends FC – Solano Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.33 PPG |
13th▲ up 1 | 11th▲ up 3 | 14th— holds |
| Win 1.33 PPG |
13th▲ up 1 | 11th▲ up 3 | 14th— holds |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
14th— holds | 14th— holds | 16th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 0.83 PPG |
17th▼ down 3 | 16th▼ down 2 | 19th▼ down 5 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 10th if every rival drops points, and as low as 14th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd <1%
- 4th
- 5th <1%
- 6th 2%
- 7th 3%
- 8th 7%
- 9th 10%
- 10th 11%
- 11th 12%
- 12th 12%
- 13th 14%
- 14th 10%
- 15th 8%
- 16th 6%
- 17th 2%
- 18th 1%
- 19th <1%
- 20th <1%
- 21st <1%
- 22nd
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.33 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Livermore Fusion SC | 3.00 (+2.00) | 1st (2.55) | 40 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Clovis Crossfire | 2.67 (+1.67) | 2nd (2.38) | 36 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Reno APEX Soccer Club | 2.57 (+1.57) | 3rd (2.35) | 34 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Silicon Valley Eagles | 2.43 (+1.43) | 4th (2.15) | 32 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 5 | Central Valley Premier FC -RL | 2.14 (+1.14) | 7th (1.81) | 28 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 6 | SF United FC | 2.00 (+1.00) | 5th (2.15) | 25 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 7 | East County Revolution FC | 1.86 (+0.86) | 6th (1.85) | 23 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 8 | Sacramento Alliance SC 2009/10B | 1.83 (+0.83) | 8th (1.78) | 23 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 9 | Stanford Strikers | 1.50 (+0.50) | 12th (1.36) | 18 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection |
| 10 | Diablo Valley Futbol Club | 1.50 (+0.50) | 13th (1.31) | 18 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection |
| 11 | South Valley United Soccer Club | 1.33 (+0.33) | 9th (1.49) | A point next game |
| 12 | San Jose Rush | 1.33 (+0.33) | 10th (1.42) | A point next game |
| 13 | Tahuichi F.C. Youth Soccer | 1.17 (+0.17) | 15th (1.17) | A point next game |
How the results connect
8 chains · 11 teams
Paths of results that link Legends FC to Solano Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.51 · 21st hardest of 22
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 17 01:20 PM no score posted |
San Jose Rush 12th · 2-2-2 · GD +3 |
Away San Jose High School · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
1–1 | 0.95 | 0.99 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 24 03:05 PM |
Solano Surf 19th · 1-0-5 · GD -18 |
Home Andrew Hill High School · turf |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
3–1 | 2.27 | 1.17 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 31 02:00 PM |
Sacramento Alliance SC 2009/10B 8th · 3-2-1 · GD +4 |
Home John Mise Field |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
1–1 | 1.13 | 1.17 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 04:05 PM |
East Bay United 22nd · 0-0-5 · GD -15 |
Home Andrew Hill High School · turf |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
2–0 | 2.34 | 1.30 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 13 12:00 PM |
Turlock Academica Jrs 21st · 0-1-6 · GD -11 |
Away far trip
Academica Fields · turf? |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
1–0 | 1.83 | 1.35 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
Stanford Strikers 9th · 3-0-3 · GD -1 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
2–2 | 1.20 | 1.34 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 02:55 PM |
Tahuichi F.C. Youth Soccer 13th · 2-1-3 · GD -4 |
Home Andrew Hill High School · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
1–1 | 1.65 | 1.36 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 02:55 PM |
Livermore Fusion SC 1st · 7-0-0 · GD +16 |
Home Andrew Hill High School · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
1–2 | 0.67 | 1.31 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 10:35 AM |
Union FC 20th · 0-1-4 · GD -10 |
Away far trip
Larchmont Community Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
2–1 | 1.81 | 1.35 | Swing game |
| Sat May 1 10:00 AM |
San Ramon FC 16th · 2-0-5 · GD -11 |
Away far trip
San Ramon Sports Park - Tiffany Roberts |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
2–1 | 1.59 | 1.36 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Livermore Fusion SC | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 7 | +16 | 21 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.15 | -0.10 | 97% | 1.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Clovis Crossfire · Sat Oct 31 vs East Bay United · Sat Nov 7 at East County Revolution FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Clovis Crossfire | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 3 | +16 | 16 | 2.67 | DWWWW | +0.07 | +0.38 | 88% | 2.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Livermore Fusion SC · Sat Oct 31 vs Reno APEX Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 vs Stockton TLJ FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Reno APEX Soccer Club | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 34 | 9 | +25 | 18 | 2.57 | WLWWW | -0.81 | +0.34 | 85% | 3.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs East County Revolution FC · Sat Oct 31 at Clovis Crossfire · Sat Nov 7 vs Tahuichi F.C. Youth Soccer See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Silicon Valley Eagles | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 17 | 2.43 | WWDDW | -0.31 | -0.12 | 51% | 4.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs San Jose Rush · Sat Oct 31 vs Stanford Strikers · Sat Nov 7 at Union FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Central Valley Premier FC -RL | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 15 | 2.14 | DDWDW | -0.38 | +0.46 | 9% | 7.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sat Oct 31 at South Valley United Soccer Club · Sat Mar 13 vs Sacramento Alliance SC 2009/10B See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | SF United FC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 11 | +10 | 14 | 2.00 | LWDWW | -0.08 | -0.68 | 54% | 4.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Turlock Academica Jrs · Sat Oct 31 vs Union FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Stanford Strikers See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | East County Revolution FC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 13 | 1.86 | LWWWD | +0.23 | -0.13 | 8% | 6.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Reno APEX Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 vs Solano Surf · Sat Nov 7 vs Livermore Fusion SC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Sacramento Alliance SC 2009/10B | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 11 | 1.83 | DWWWD | +0.48 | -0.16 | 7% | 7.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at San Ramon FC · Sat Oct 31 at Legends FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Turlock Academica Jrs See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Stanford Strikers | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 9 | 1.50 | LWWWL | -0.22 | +0.08 | 0% | 12.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Ceres Rush Athletico · Sun Oct 25 at Tahuichi F.C. Youth Soccer · Sat Oct 31 at Silicon Valley Eagles See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Diablo Valley Futbol Club | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 9 | 1.50 | LLLWW | +0.01 | -0.14 | 0% | 12.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Central Valley Premier FC -RL · Sat Oct 31 at Stockton TLJ FC · Sat Nov 7 at Ceres Rush Athletico See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | South Valley United Soccer Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 8 | 1.33 | WDDWL | -0.01 | +0.09 | 1% | 10.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Central Valley Premier FC -RL · Sat Nov 7 at Solano Surf · Sat Mar 13 at Union FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | San Jose Rush | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 8 | 1.33 | DDLLW | +0.16 | +0.23 | 1% | 11.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Legends FC · Sat Oct 24 at Silicon Valley Eagles · Sat Oct 31 vs Tahuichi F.C. Youth Soccer See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Tahuichi F.C. Youth Soccer | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 7 | 1.17 | LWDLL | -0.11 | +0.01 | 0% | 14.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs East Bay United · Sun Oct 25 vs Stanford Strikers · Sat Oct 31 at San Jose Rush See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Legends FC | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 5 | 1.00 | WDDLL | +0.31 | -0.51 | 0% | 11.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at San Jose Rush · Sat Oct 24 vs Solano Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Sacramento Alliance SC 2009/10B See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | Walnut Creek Surf | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 6 | 1.00 | WWLLL | +0.14 | -0.38 | 0% | 12.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Union FC · Sat Oct 24 at Stockton TLJ FC · Sat Oct 31 at Turlock Academica Jrs See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | San Ramon FC | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 6 | 0.86 | LWLLL | +0.50 | -0.13 | 0% | 16.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sacramento Alliance SC 2009/10B · Sat Nov 7 at Walnut Creek Surf · Sat Mar 13 vs Silicon Valley Eagles See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | Stockton TLJ FC | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 4 | 0.67 | LDLWL | +0.71 | -0.35 | 0% | 16.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Walnut Creek Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sat Nov 7 at Clovis Crossfire See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 18 | Ceres Rush Athletico | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 4 | 0.57 | LLLLW | +0.28 | +0.09 | 0% | 18.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Stanford Strikers · Sat Nov 7 vs Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sat Mar 13 at Livermore Fusion SC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 19 | Solano Surf | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 27 | -18 | 3 | 0.50 | LLWLL | +0.05 | -0.02 | 0% | 19.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Legends FC · Sat Oct 31 at East County Revolution FC · Sat Nov 7 vs South Valley United Soccer Club See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 20 | Union FC | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 1 | 0.20 | LDLLL | -0.28 | -0.03 | 0% | 19.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Walnut Creek Surf · Sat Oct 31 at SF United FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Silicon Valley Eagles See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 21 | Turlock Academica Jrs | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 1 | 0.14 | LLLLL | +0.23 | +0.10 | 0% | 20.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at SF United FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Walnut Creek Surf · Sat Nov 7 at Sacramento Alliance SC 2009/10B See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 22 | East Bay United | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 15 | -15 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.13 | +0.32 | 0% | 21.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Tahuichi F.C. Youth Soccer · Sat Oct 31 at Livermore Fusion SC · Sat Nov 7 at Legends FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.09 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.