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Clovis Crossfire

ECNL Regional League Boys · NorCal BU17 · 22 teams · Clovis Crossfire (all teams)

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2nd
5-1-0 record · 6 played
2.67 points per game
+16 goal diff · 19–3
DWWWWlast 5
87% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.8
+0.07 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM

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Clovis Crossfire
2nd · 2.67 PPG
vs
Livermore Fusion SC
1st · 3.00 PPG

Clovis North High School, Field 3 ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.9 for, 1.3 against · 1.74 expected points)

Season so farClovis CrossfireLivermore Fusion SC
Position2nd1st
Record (W-D-L)5-1-07-0-0
Points per game2.673.00
Goals for / game3.23.3
Goals against / game0.51.0
Clean sheets32
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W W W DW W W W W
Biggest win6–1 at Diablo Valley Futbol Club6–0 vs Stockton TLJ FC
Worst loss——
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.75+1.53
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.07-0.15

Common opponents: SF United FC — we 1–1; they 3–2. East County Revolution FC — we 3–0; they 2–1. Diablo Valley Futbol Club — we 6–1; they 2–1.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Livermore Fusion SC score 3.3/game — well above the league's 2.1.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Livermore Fusion SC concede only 1.0/game with 2 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 51% / draw 22% / loss 27%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • They arrive in form
    Livermore Fusion SC have won 7 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Livermore Fusion SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Clovis Crossfire – Livermore Fusion SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 2.43 PPG
3rd▼ down 1 4th▼ down 2 4th▼ down 2
Win
2.71 PPG
1st▲ up 1 1st▲ up 1 1st▲ up 1
Draw
2.43 PPG
3rd▼ down 1 4th▼ down 2 4th▼ down 2
Loss
2.29 PPG
4th▼ down 2 4th▼ down 2 4th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

24% finish 1st
87% top 4
13% below the top 4
2.8 average finish
  1. 1st 24%
  2. 2nd 25%
  3. 3rd 23%
  4. 4th 14%
  5. 5th 8%
  6. 6th 3%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th
  19. 19th
  20. 20th
  21. 21st
  22. 22nd

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.86 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Livermore Fusion SC 3.00 (+0.33) 1st (2.55) 26 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection

How the results connect

12 chains · 12 teams

Paths of results that link Clovis Crossfire to Livermore Fusion SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us
4 even
3 favour them
+0.8 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–1 2–3 3–0 1–2 6–1 1–2 2–0 3–3 1–3 1–2 0–4 2–0 1–2 3–2 2–1 4–1 2–3 5–1 0–4 5–2 0–6 7–2 Clovis Crossfire 2nd SF United FC 6th East County Revolut… 7th Diablo Valley Futbo… 10th South Valley United… 11th Legends FC 14th Union FC 20th San Jose Rush 12th San Ramon FC 16th Walnut Creek Surf 15th Stockton TLJ FC 17th Livermore Fusion SC 1st

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 11th 22nd Aug 15 Aug 22 Sep 19 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.38 · 2nd hardest of 22

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
12:00 PM
Livermore Fusion SC
1st · 7-0-0 · GD +16
Home
Clovis North High School
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
1–1 1.74 2.53 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
02:00 PM
Reno APEX Soccer Club
3rd · 6-0-1 · GD +25
Home
Fresno Christian Schools
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
2–1 1.69 2.43 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
02:00 PM
Stockton TLJ FC
17th · 1-1-4 · GD -12
Home
Fresno Christian Schools
●○○○○ Favorable
90%
4–0 2.76 2.47 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
TBD
San Jose Rush
12th · 2-2-2 · GD +3
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
2–1 2.01 2.42 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
02:30 PM
Sacramento Alliance SC 2009/10B
8th · 3-2-1 · GD +4
Away far trip
C.K. McClatchy High School
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
2–1 1.97 2.38 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
02:00 PM
Ceres Rush Athletico
18th · 1-1-5 · GD -11
Home
Fresno Christian Schools
●○○○○ Favorable
89%
3–0 2.73 2.41 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
TBD
Stanford Strikers
9th · 3-0-3 · GD -1
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
77%
3–1 2.44 2.41 Bank it
Sat May 1
02:00 PM
Central Valley Premier FC -RL
5th · 4-3-0 · GD +7
Away far trip
Riverway Sports Park
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
2–1 1.98 2.38 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Livermore Fusion SC 7700 237+16 213.00 WWWWW -0.15 -0.10 97% 1.9
2 Clovis Crossfire 6510 193+16 162.67 DWWWW +0.07 +0.38 87% 2.8
3 Reno APEX Soccer Club 7601 349+25 182.57 WLWWW -0.81 +0.34 84% 2.9
4 Silicon Valley Eagles 7520 189+9 172.43 WWDDW -0.31 -0.12 51% 4.5
5 Central Valley Premier FC -RL 7430 1811+7 152.14 DDWDW -0.38 +0.46 10% 7.4
6 SF United FC 7421 2111+10 142.00 LWDWW -0.08 -0.68 54% 4.5
7 East County Revolution FC 7412 2014+6 131.86 LWWWD +0.23 -0.13 9% 6.9
8 Sacramento Alliance SC 2009/10B 6321 139+4 111.83 DWWWD +0.48 -0.16 8% 7.7
9 Stanford Strikers 6303 1920-1 91.50 LWWWL -0.22 +0.08 0% 12.0
10 Diablo Valley Futbol Club 6303 812-4 91.50 LLLWW +0.01 -0.14 0% 12.6
11 South Valley United Soccer Club 6222 1610+6 81.33 WDDWL -0.01 +0.09 1% 10.2
12 San Jose Rush 6222 129+3 81.33 DDLLW +0.16 +0.23 0% 11.2
13 Tahuichi F.C. Youth Soccer 6213 59-4 71.17 LWDLL -0.11 +0.01 0% 13.9
14 Legends FC 5122 79-2 51.00 WDDLL +0.31 -0.51 0% 11.7
15 Walnut Creek Surf 6204 1417-3 61.00 WWLLL +0.14 -0.38 0% 12.5
16 San Ramon FC 7205 1223-11 60.86 LWLLL +0.50 -0.13 0% 16.1
17 Stockton TLJ FC 6114 921-12 40.67 LDLWL +0.71 -0.35 0% 16.0
18 Ceres Rush Athletico 7115 920-11 40.57 LLLLW +0.28 +0.09 0% 18.0
19 Solano Surf 6105 927-18 30.50 LLWLL +0.05 -0.02 0% 19.4
20 Union FC 5014 616-10 10.20 LDLLL -0.28 -0.03 0% 19.1
21 Turlock Academica Jrs 7016 213-11 10.14 LLLLL +0.23 +0.10 0% 20.4
22 East Bay United 5005 015-15 00.00 LLLLL +0.13 +0.32 0% 21.3

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.09 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.