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Silicon Valley Eagles

ECNL Regional League Boys · NorCal BU17 · 22 teams · Silicon Valley Eagles (all teams)

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4th
5-2-0 record · 7 played
2.43 points per game
+9 goal diff · 18–9
WWDDWlast 5
51% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.5
-0.31 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:00 PM

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Silicon Valley Eagles
4th · 2.43 PPG
vs
San Jose Rush
12th · 1.33 PPG

RAMAC Park, 11v11 ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.1 for, 1.5 against · 1.74 expected points)

Season so farSilicon Valley EaglesSan Jose Rush
Position4th12th
Record (W-D-L)5-2-02-2-2
Points per game2.431.33
Goals for / game2.62.0
Goals against / game1.31.5
Clean sheets22
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W D D W WW L L D D
Biggest win5–1 vs Tahuichi F.C. Youth Soccer4–0 vs Union FC
Worst loss—1–3 vs Livermore Fusion SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.81+0.38
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.31+0.16

Common opponents: Sacramento Alliance SC 2009/10B — we 4–2; they 1–1.

Game plan

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 51% / draw 21% / loss 28%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the San Jose Rush game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Silicon Valley Eagles – San Jose Rush) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.50 PPG
4th— holds 3rd▲ up 1 4th— holds
Win
2.50 PPG
4th— holds 3rd▲ up 1 4th— holds
Draw
2.25 PPG
4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Loss
2.13 PPG
5th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

3% finish 1st
51% top 4
49% below the top 4
4.5 average finish
  1. 1st 3%
  2. 2nd 10%
  3. 3rd 15%
  4. 4th 23%
  5. 5th 24%
  6. 6th 13%
  7. 7th 7%
  8. 8th 3%
  9. 9th 1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th <1%
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th
  19. 19th
  20. 20th
  21. 21st
  22. 22nd

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.75 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Livermore Fusion SC 3.00 (+0.57) 1st (2.55) 31 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
2 Clovis Crossfire 2.67 (+0.24) 2nd (2.38) 26 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
3 Reno APEX Soccer Club 2.57 (+0.14) 3rd (2.35) 25 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection

How the results connect

13 chains · 14 teams

Paths of results that link Silicon Valley Eagles to San Jose Rush through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

7 favour us
1 even
5 favour them
+0.0 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
4–2 1–1 1–0 1–3 2–1 3–3 2–3 3–1 5–2 0–2 5–1 2–1 0–4 2–2 2–2 1–0 0–4 3–3 2–1 0–4 1–1 0–1 3–3 0–3 Silicon Valley Eagl… 4th Sacramento Alliance… 8th Turlock Academica J… 21st SF United FC 6th Tahuichi F.C. Youth… 13th Central Valley Prem… 5th East Bay United 22nd Ceres Rush Athletico 18th East County Revolut… 7th Livermore Fusion SC 1st Stockton TLJ FC 17th Union FC 20th South Valley United… 11th San Jose Rush 12th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 11th 22nd Aug 15 Aug 22 Sep 19 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.12 · 14th hardest of 22

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
02:00 PM
San Jose Rush
12th · 2-2-2 · GD +3
Home
RAMAC Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
2–1 1.74 2.34 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
02:00 PM
Stanford Strikers
9th · 3-0-3 · GD -1
Home
RAMAC Park
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
3–1 2.18 2.32 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
10:35 AM
Union FC
20th · 0-1-4 · GD -10
Away far trip
Larchmont Community Park
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
3–1 2.37 2.33 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
10:00 AM
San Ramon FC
16th · 2-0-5 · GD -11
Away far trip
San Ramon Sports Park - Tiffany Roberts
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
3–1 2.18 2.32 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
01:15 PM
Reno APEX Soccer Club
3rd · 6-0-1 · GD +25
Away far trip
Lyman Gilmore 11v11
●●●●● Very tough
19%
1–3 0.72 2.18 Upside
Sat Apr 10
TBD
Diablo Valley Futbol Club
10th · 3-0-3 · GD -4
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
2–1 2.21 2.18 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
TBD
Solano Surf
19th · 1-0-5 · GD -18
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
88%
4–1 2.71 2.22 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
TBD
Walnut Creek Surf
15th · 2-0-4 · GD -3
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
69%
3–1 2.22 2.22 Swing game
Sat May 1
TBD
Livermore Fusion SC
1st · 7-0-0 · GD +16
Home
●●●●○ Tough
31%
1–2 1.13 2.15 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Livermore Fusion SC 7700 237+16 213.00 WWWWW -0.15 -0.10 97% 1.8
2 Clovis Crossfire 6510 193+16 162.67 DWWWW +0.07 +0.38 85% 2.8
3 Reno APEX Soccer Club 7601 349+25 182.57 WLWWW -0.81 +0.34 85% 3.0
4 Silicon Valley Eagles 7520 189+9 172.43 WWDDW -0.31 -0.12 51% 4.5
5 Central Valley Premier FC -RL 7430 1811+7 152.14 DDWDW -0.38 +0.46 9% 7.4
6 SF United FC 7421 2111+10 142.00 LWDWW -0.08 -0.68 56% 4.4
7 East County Revolution FC 7412 2014+6 131.86 LWWWD +0.23 -0.13 9% 6.9
8 Sacramento Alliance SC 2009/10B 6321 139+4 111.83 DWWWD +0.48 -0.16 7% 7.7
9 Stanford Strikers 6303 1920-1 91.50 LWWWL -0.22 +0.08 0% 12.0
10 Diablo Valley Futbol Club 6303 812-4 91.50 LLLWW +0.01 -0.14 0% 12.4
11 South Valley United Soccer Club 6222 1610+6 81.33 WDDWL -0.01 +0.09 1% 10.4
12 San Jose Rush 6222 129+3 81.33 DDLLW +0.16 +0.23 1% 11.1
13 Tahuichi F.C. Youth Soccer 6213 59-4 71.17 LWDLL -0.11 +0.01 0% 13.9
14 Legends FC 5122 79-2 51.00 WDDLL +0.31 -0.51 0% 11.9
15 Walnut Creek Surf 6204 1417-3 61.00 WWLLL +0.14 -0.38 0% 12.5
16 San Ramon FC 7205 1223-11 60.86 LWLLL +0.50 -0.13 0% 16.1
17 Stockton TLJ FC 6114 921-12 40.67 LDLWL +0.71 -0.35 0% 16.1
18 Ceres Rush Athletico 7115 920-11 40.57 LLLLW +0.28 +0.09 0% 18.1
19 Solano Surf 6105 927-18 30.50 LLWLL +0.05 -0.02 0% 19.4
20 Union FC 5014 616-10 10.20 LDLLL -0.28 -0.03 0% 19.0
21 Turlock Academica Jrs 7016 213-11 10.14 LLLLL +0.23 +0.10 0% 20.3
22 East Bay United 5005 015-15 00.00 LLLLL +0.13 +0.32 0% 21.3

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.09 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.