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Livermore Fusion SC

ECNL Regional League Boys · NorCal BU17 · 22 teams · Livermore Fusion SC (all teams)

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1st
7-0-0 record · 7 played
3.00 points per game
+16 goal diff · 23–7
WWWWWlast 5
97% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.8
-0.15 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM

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Livermore Fusion SC
1st · 3.00 PPG
at
Clovis Crossfire
2nd · 2.67 PPG

Clovis North High School, Field 3 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.3 for, 1.9 against · 1.04 expected points)

Season so farLivermore Fusion SCClovis Crossfire
Position1st2nd
Record (W-D-L)7-0-05-1-0
Points per game3.002.67
Goals for / game3.33.2
Goals against / game1.00.5
Clean sheets23
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W W W WW W W W D
Biggest win6–0 vs Stockton TLJ FC6–1 at Diablo Valley Futbol Club
Worst loss——
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.53+1.75
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.15+0.07

Common opponents: East County Revolution FC — we 2–1; they 3–0. Diablo Valley Futbol Club — we 2–1; they 6–1. SF United FC — we 3–2; they 1–1.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Clovis Crossfire score 3.2/game — well above the league's 2.1.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Clovis Crossfire concede only 0.5/game with 3 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 27%; a draw (22%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Clovis Crossfire have won 4 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 12:00 PM at Clovis North High School.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Clovis Crossfire game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Livermore Fusion SC – Clovis Crossfire) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 2.75 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Win
3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Draw
2.75 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Loss
2.63 PPG
2nd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 2 3rd▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

53% finish 1st
97% top 4
3% below the top 4
1.8 average finish
  1. 1st 53%
  2. 2nd 26%
  3. 3rd 13%
  4. 4th 6%
  5. 5th 2%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th
  19. 19th
  20. 20th
  21. 21st
  22. 22nd

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

12 chains · 12 teams

Paths of results that link Livermore Fusion SC to Clovis Crossfire through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
4 even
5 favour them
-0.8 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–2 1–1 2–1 0–3 2–1 1–6 4–0 2–1 2–3 3–1 3–3 0–2 2–1 0–2 3–2 1–4 1–2 4–0 1–5 6–0 2–5 2–7 Livermore Fusion SC 1st SF United FC 6th East County Revolut… 7th Diablo Valley Futbo… 10th San Ramon FC 16th San Jose Rush 12th Walnut Creek Surf 15th Stockton TLJ FC 17th South Valley United… 11th Legends FC 14th Union FC 20th Clovis Crossfire 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 11th 22nd Aug 15 Aug 22 Sep 19 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.10 · 13th hardest of 22

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
12:00 PM
Clovis Crossfire
2nd · 5-1-0 · GD +16
Away far trip
Clovis North High School
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–1 1.04 2.75 Upside
Sat Oct 31
01:00 PM
East Bay United
22nd · 0-0-5 · GD -15
Home
Robertson Park
●○○○○ Favorable
92%
3–0 2.83 2.76 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
02:00 PM
East County Revolution FC
7th · 4-1-2 · GD +6
Away
Sunset Sports Complex (SSC)
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
2–1 1.80 2.67 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
01:00 PM
Ceres Rush Athletico
18th · 1-1-5 · GD -11
Home
Robertson Park
●○○○○ Favorable
86%
3–0 2.68 2.67 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
03:00 PM
Stanford Strikers
9th · 3-0-3 · GD -1
Home
Robertson Park
●○○○○ Favorable
81%
4–1 2.53 2.66 Bank it
Sat Apr 17
02:55 PM
Legends FC
14th · 1-2-2 · GD -2
Away far trip
Andrew Hill High School · turf
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
2–1 2.15 2.62 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
01:00 PM
Turlock Academica Jrs
21st · 0-1-6 · GD -11
Home
Robertson Park
●○○○○ Favorable
84%
2–0 2.64 2.62 Bank it
Sat May 1
TBD
Silicon Valley Eagles
4th · 5-2-0 · GD +9
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
2–1 1.66 2.55 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Livermore Fusion SC 7700 237+16 213.00 WWWWW -0.15 -0.10 97% 1.8
2 Clovis Crossfire 6510 193+16 162.67 DWWWW +0.07 +0.38 88% 2.7
3 Reno APEX Soccer Club 7601 349+25 182.57 WLWWW -0.81 +0.34 85% 3.0
4 Silicon Valley Eagles 7520 189+9 172.43 WWDDW -0.31 -0.12 51% 4.5
5 Central Valley Premier FC -RL 7430 1811+7 152.14 DDWDW -0.38 +0.46 9% 7.4
6 SF United FC 7421 2111+10 142.00 LWDWW -0.08 -0.68 54% 4.5
7 East County Revolution FC 7412 2014+6 131.86 LWWWD +0.23 -0.13 8% 6.9
8 Sacramento Alliance SC 2009/10B 6321 139+4 111.83 DWWWD +0.48 -0.16 7% 7.7
9 Stanford Strikers 6303 1920-1 91.50 LWWWL -0.22 +0.08 0% 12.0
10 Diablo Valley Futbol Club 6303 812-4 91.50 LLLWW +0.01 -0.14 0% 12.6
11 South Valley United Soccer Club 6222 1610+6 81.33 WDDWL -0.01 +0.09 1% 10.3
12 San Jose Rush 6222 129+3 81.33 DDLLW +0.16 +0.23 1% 11.0
13 Tahuichi F.C. Youth Soccer 6213 59-4 71.17 LWDLL -0.11 +0.01 0% 14.0
14 Legends FC 5122 79-2 51.00 WDDLL +0.31 -0.51 0% 11.8
15 Walnut Creek Surf 6204 1417-3 61.00 WWLLL +0.14 -0.38 0% 12.6
16 San Ramon FC 7205 1223-11 60.86 LWLLL +0.50 -0.13 0% 16.1
17 Stockton TLJ FC 6114 921-12 40.67 LDLWL +0.71 -0.35 0% 16.1
18 Ceres Rush Athletico 7115 920-11 40.57 LLLLW +0.28 +0.09 0% 18.0
19 Solano Surf 6105 927-18 30.50 LLWLL +0.05 -0.02 0% 19.4
20 Union FC 5014 616-10 10.20 LDLLL -0.28 -0.03 0% 19.1
21 Turlock Academica Jrs 7016 213-11 10.14 LLLLL +0.23 +0.10 0% 20.3
22 East Bay United 5005 015-15 00.00 LLLLL +0.13 +0.32 0% 21.3

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.09 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.