South Valley United Soccer Club
ECNL Regional League Boys · NorCal BU17 · 22 teams · South Valley United Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 31, 12:00 PM
Neighborhood Church, Field 2 ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.2 for, 2.0 against · 1.54 expected points)
| Season so far | South Valley United Soccer Club | Central Valley Premier FC -RL |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 11th | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-2-2 | 4-3-0 |
| Points per game | 1.33 | 2.14 |
| Goals for / game | 2.7 | 2.6 |
| Goals against / game | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L W D D W | W D W D D |
| Biggest win | 7–2 vs Walnut Creek Surf | 6–3 vs San Ramon FC |
| Worst loss | 0–2 vs Clovis Crossfire | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.59 | +0.56 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.01 | -0.38 |
Common opponents: Legends FC — we 2–3; they 1–1. Walnut Creek Surf — we 7–2; they 3–2.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–0 vs Tahuichi F.C. Youth Soccer, 0–2 vs Clovis Crossfire.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 45% / draw 20% / loss 35%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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What a win does
Diablo Valley Futbol Club sit 10th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.33.A point moves us above Diablo Valley Futbol Club on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Central Valley Premier FC -RL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (South Valley United Soccer Club – Central Valley Premier FC -RL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.57 PPG |
9th▲ up 2 | 9th▲ up 2 | 11th— holds |
| Win 1.57 PPG |
9th▲ up 2 | 9th▲ up 2 | 11th— holds |
| Draw 1.29 PPG |
12th▼ down 1 | 11th— holds | 14th▼ down 3 |
| Loss 1.14 PPG |
13th▼ down 2 | 12th▼ down 1 | 15th▼ down 4 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 8th if every rival drops points, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd <1%
- 4th 1%
- 5th 1%
- 6th 4%
- 7th 8%
- 8th 12%
- 9th 15%
- 10th 14%
- 11th 13%
- 12th 11%
- 13th 10%
- 14th 5%
- 15th 3%
- 16th 1%
- 17th 1%
- 18th <1%
- 19th <1%
- 20th <1%
- 21st
- 22nd
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.29 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Livermore Fusion SC | 3.00 (+1.67) | 1st (2.55) | 34 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Clovis Crossfire | 2.67 (+1.34) | 2nd (2.38) | 30 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Reno APEX Soccer Club | 2.57 (+1.24) | 3rd (2.35) | 28 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Silicon Valley Eagles | 2.43 (+1.10) | 4th (2.15) | 27 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 5 | Central Valley Premier FC -RL | 2.14 (+0.81) | 7th (1.81) | 22 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection |
| 6 | SF United FC | 2.00 (+0.67) | 5th (2.15) | 20 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 7 | East County Revolution FC | 1.86 (+0.53) | 6th (1.85) | 19 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection |
| 8 | Sacramento Alliance SC 2009/10B | 1.83 (+0.50) | 8th (1.78) | 18 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 9 | Stanford Strikers | 1.50 (+0.17) | 12th (1.36) | A point next game |
| 10 | Diablo Valley Futbol Club | 1.50 (+0.17) | 13th (1.31) | A point next game |
How the results connect
8 chains · 11 teams
Paths of results that link South Valley United Soccer Club to Central Valley Premier FC -RL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.09 · 8th hardest of 22
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 31 12:00 PM |
Central Valley Premier FC -RL 5th · 4-3-0 · GD +7 |
Home Neighborhood Church |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
2–1 | 1.54 | 1.36 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 02:05 PM |
Solano Surf 19th · 1-0-5 · GD -18 |
Away far trip
Fairfield High School · turf? |
●○○○○ Favorable | 79% |
4–1 | 2.47 | 1.50 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 13 10:35 AM |
Union FC 20th · 0-1-4 · GD -10 |
Away far trip
Larchmont Community Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
3–1 | 2.28 | 1.59 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 3 02:00 PM |
East County Revolution FC 7th · 4-1-2 · GD +6 |
Home Neighborhood Church |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
2–2 | 1.52 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 12:00 PM |
Turlock Academica Jrs 21st · 0-1-6 · GD -11 |
Away far trip
Academica Fields · turf? |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
2–0 | 2.22 | 1.64 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 01:15 PM |
Reno APEX Soccer Club 3rd · 6-0-1 · GD +25 |
Away far trip
Lyman Gilmore 11v11 |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
1–3 | 0.58 | 1.55 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
SF United FC 6th · 4-2-1 · GD +10 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
1–2 | 1.02 | 1.51 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 02:30 PM |
Sacramento Alliance SC 2009/10B 8th · 3-2-1 · GD +4 |
Away far trip
C.K. McClatchy High School |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
1–2 | 1.25 | 1.49 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Livermore Fusion SC | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 7 | +16 | 21 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.15 | -0.10 | 97% | 1.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Clovis Crossfire · Sat Oct 31 vs East Bay United · Sat Nov 7 at East County Revolution FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Clovis Crossfire | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 3 | +16 | 16 | 2.67 | DWWWW | +0.07 | +0.38 | 86% | 2.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Livermore Fusion SC · Sat Oct 31 vs Reno APEX Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 vs Stockton TLJ FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Reno APEX Soccer Club | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 34 | 9 | +25 | 18 | 2.57 | WLWWW | -0.81 | +0.34 | 84% | 3.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs East County Revolution FC · Sat Oct 31 at Clovis Crossfire · Sat Nov 7 vs Tahuichi F.C. Youth Soccer See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Silicon Valley Eagles | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 17 | 2.43 | WWDDW | -0.31 | -0.12 | 51% | 4.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs San Jose Rush · Sat Oct 31 vs Stanford Strikers · Sat Nov 7 at Union FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Central Valley Premier FC -RL | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 15 | 2.14 | DDWDW | -0.38 | +0.46 | 9% | 7.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sat Oct 31 at South Valley United Soccer Club · Sat Mar 13 vs Sacramento Alliance SC 2009/10B See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | SF United FC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 11 | +10 | 14 | 2.00 | LWDWW | -0.08 | -0.68 | 55% | 4.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Turlock Academica Jrs · Sat Oct 31 vs Union FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Stanford Strikers See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | East County Revolution FC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 13 | 1.86 | LWWWD | +0.23 | -0.13 | 9% | 6.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Reno APEX Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 vs Solano Surf · Sat Nov 7 vs Livermore Fusion SC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Sacramento Alliance SC 2009/10B | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 11 | 1.83 | DWWWD | +0.48 | -0.16 | 8% | 7.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at San Ramon FC · Sat Oct 31 at Legends FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Turlock Academica Jrs See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Stanford Strikers | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 9 | 1.50 | LWWWL | -0.22 | +0.08 | 0% | 12.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Ceres Rush Athletico · Sun Oct 25 at Tahuichi F.C. Youth Soccer · Sat Oct 31 at Silicon Valley Eagles See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Diablo Valley Futbol Club | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 9 | 1.50 | LLLWW | +0.01 | -0.14 | 0% | 12.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Central Valley Premier FC -RL · Sat Oct 31 at Stockton TLJ FC · Sat Nov 7 at Ceres Rush Athletico See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | South Valley United Soccer Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 8 | 1.33 | WDDWL | -0.01 | +0.09 | 1% | 10.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Central Valley Premier FC -RL · Sat Nov 7 at Solano Surf · Sat Mar 13 at Union FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | San Jose Rush | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 8 | 1.33 | DDLLW | +0.16 | +0.23 | 0% | 11.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Legends FC · Sat Oct 24 at Silicon Valley Eagles · Sat Oct 31 vs Tahuichi F.C. Youth Soccer See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Tahuichi F.C. Youth Soccer | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 7 | 1.17 | LWDLL | -0.11 | +0.01 | 0% | 13.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs East Bay United · Sun Oct 25 vs Stanford Strikers · Sat Oct 31 at San Jose Rush See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Legends FC | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 5 | 1.00 | WDDLL | +0.31 | -0.51 | 0% | 11.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at San Jose Rush · Sat Oct 24 vs Solano Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Sacramento Alliance SC 2009/10B See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | Walnut Creek Surf | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 6 | 1.00 | WWLLL | +0.14 | -0.38 | 0% | 12.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Union FC · Sat Oct 24 at Stockton TLJ FC · Sat Oct 31 at Turlock Academica Jrs See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | San Ramon FC | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 6 | 0.86 | LWLLL | +0.50 | -0.13 | 0% | 16.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sacramento Alliance SC 2009/10B · Sat Nov 7 at Walnut Creek Surf · Sat Mar 13 vs Silicon Valley Eagles See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | Stockton TLJ FC | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 4 | 0.67 | LDLWL | +0.71 | -0.35 | 0% | 16.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Walnut Creek Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sat Nov 7 at Clovis Crossfire See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 18 | Ceres Rush Athletico | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 4 | 0.57 | LLLLW | +0.28 | +0.09 | 0% | 18.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Stanford Strikers · Sat Nov 7 vs Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sat Mar 13 at Livermore Fusion SC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 19 | Solano Surf | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 27 | -18 | 3 | 0.50 | LLWLL | +0.05 | -0.02 | 0% | 19.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Legends FC · Sat Oct 31 at East County Revolution FC · Sat Nov 7 vs South Valley United Soccer Club See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 20 | Union FC | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 1 | 0.20 | LDLLL | -0.28 | -0.03 | 0% | 19.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Walnut Creek Surf · Sat Oct 31 at SF United FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Silicon Valley Eagles See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 21 | Turlock Academica Jrs | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 1 | 0.14 | LLLLL | +0.23 | +0.10 | 0% | 20.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at SF United FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Walnut Creek Surf · Sat Nov 7 at Sacramento Alliance SC 2009/10B See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 22 | East Bay United | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 15 | -15 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.13 | +0.32 | 0% | 21.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Tahuichi F.C. Youth Soccer · Sat Oct 31 at Livermore Fusion SC · Sat Nov 7 at Legends FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.09 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.