Ceres Rush Athletico

ECNL Regional League Boys · NorCal BU17 · 22 teams · Ceres Rush (all teams)

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18th

1-1-5 record · 7 played

0.57 points per game

-11 goal diff · 9–20

LLLLWlast 5

0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 18.1

+0.28 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:00 AM

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Ceres Rush Athletico
18th · 0.57 PPG

Stanford Strikers
9th · 1.50 PPG

Kelly Park, Field 1 ↗ far trip

20% 15% 65%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 2.1 for, 3.5 against · 0.74 expected points)

Season so far	Ceres Rush Athletico	Stanford Strikers
Position	18th	9th
Record (W-D-L)	1-1-5	3-0-3
Points per game	0.57	1.50
Goals for / game	1.3	3.2
Goals against / game	2.9	3.3
Clean sheets	0	1
Held scoreless	3	0
Form (recent first)	W L L L L	L W W W L
Biggest win	5–2 vs Solano Surf	6–0 vs East Bay United
Worst loss	0–4 vs Sacramento Alliance SC 2009/10B	2–8 vs East County Revolution FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.97	-0.19
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.28	-0.22

Common opponents: Reno APEX Soccer Club — we 1–5; they 2–6. Solano Surf — we 5–2; they 4–2.

Game plan

Respect their attack
Stanford Strikers score 3.2/game — well above the league's 2.1.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
They leak goals — be greedy
Stanford Strikers concede 3.3/game; worst result 2–8 vs East County Revolution FC.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–1 at Tahuichi F.C. Youth Soccer, 0–4 vs Sacramento Alliance SC 2009/10B, 0–4 at SF United FC.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 20%; a draw (15%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 10:00 AM at Kelly Park.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
Stockton TLJ FC sit 17th on 0.67 PPG; we are on 0.57.
A point moves us above Stockton TLJ FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Stanford Strikers game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Ceres Rush Athletico – Stanford Strikers) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 0.50 PPG	18th— holds	18th— holds	20th▼ down 2
Win 0.88 PPG	16th▲ up 2	16th▲ up 2	18th— holds
Draw 0.63 PPG	18th— holds	18th— holds	19th▼ down 1
Loss 0.50 PPG	18th— holds	18th— holds	20th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–3 loss we stay 18th even if every rival loses, and as low as 20th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

0% top 4

100% below the top 4

18.1 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th <1%
10th <1%
11th <1%
12th 1%
13th 1%
14th 2%
15th 4%
16th 10%
17th 16%
18th 23%
19th 20%
20th 14%
21st 7%
22nd 2%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 1.87 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Livermore Fusion SC	3.00 (+2.43)	1st (2.55)	41 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Clovis Crossfire	2.67 (+2.10)	2nd (2.38)	37 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	Reno APEX Soccer Club	2.57 (+2.00)	3rd (2.35)	35 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4	Silicon Valley Eagles	2.43 (+1.86)	4th (2.15)	33 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5	Central Valley Premier FC -RL	2.14 (+1.57)	7th (1.81)	29 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
6	SF United FC	2.00 (+1.43)	5th (2.15)	26 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
7	East County Revolution FC	1.86 (+1.29)	6th (1.85)	24 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
8	Sacramento Alliance SC 2009/10B	1.83 (+1.26)	8th (1.78)	24 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
9	Stanford Strikers	1.50 (+0.93)	12th (1.36)	19 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
10	Diablo Valley Futbol Club	1.50 (+0.93)	13th (1.31)	19 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
11	South Valley United Soccer Club	1.33 (+0.76)	9th (1.49)	16 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
12	San Jose Rush	1.33 (+0.76)	10th (1.42)	16 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
13	Tahuichi F.C. Youth Soccer	1.17 (+0.60)	15th (1.17)	14 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection
14	Legends FC	1.00 (+0.43)	11th (1.36)	11 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
15	Walnut Creek Surf	1.00 (+0.43)	14th (1.30)	11 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
16	San Ramon FC	0.86 (+0.29)	16th (0.96)	A point next game
17	Stockton TLJ FC	0.67 (+0.10)	17th (0.96)	A point next game

How the results connect

11 chains · 12 teams

Paths of results that link Ceres Rush Athletico to Stanford Strikers through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

6 favour us

1 even

4 favour them

-0.6 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

11 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.09 · 7th hardest of 22

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 10:00 AM	Stanford Strikers 9th · 3-0-3 · GD -1	Away far trip Kelly Park	●●●●● Very tough	20%	2–3	0.74	0.59	Upside
Sat Nov 7 01:30 PM	Diablo Valley Futbol Club 10th · 3-0-3 · GD -4	Home Futbol Farm	●●●●○ Tough	35%	1–1	1.27	0.67	Upside
Sat Mar 13 01:00 PM	Livermore Fusion SC 1st · 7-0-0 · GD +16	Away far trip Robertson Park	●●●●● Very tough	5%	0–3	0.24	0.63	Upside
Sat Apr 3 10:00 AM	Walnut Creek Surf 15th · 2-0-4 · GD -3	Home Ceres River Bluff Regional Park	●●●●○ Tough	32%	2–2	1.16	0.67	Upside
Sat Apr 10 02:00 PM	Clovis Crossfire 2nd · 5-1-0 · GD +16	Away far trip Fresno Christian Schools	●●●●● Very tough	4%	0–3	0.19	0.63	Upside
Sat Apr 17 10:00 AM	San Ramon FC 16th · 2-0-5 · GD -11	Home Ceres River Bluff Regional Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	42%	2–2	1.47	0.70	Swing game
Sun Apr 25 12:00 PM	Stockton TLJ FC 17th · 1-1-4 · GD -12	Away far trip Stockton Soccer Complex	●●●●○ Tough	33%	2–2	1.19	0.73	Upside
Sat May 1 10:00 AM	San Jose Rush 12th · 2-2-2 · GD +3	Home Ceres River Bluff Regional Park	●●●●● Very tough	21%	1–2	0.82	0.74	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Livermore Fusion SC

+16

3.00

WWWWW

-0.15

-0.10

97%

1.8

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	San Ramon FC (16th)	4–0
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Walnut Creek Surf (15th)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Stockton TLJ FC (17th)	6–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	San Jose Rush (12th)	3–1
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	SF United FC (6th)	3–2
W	Sun Aug 16	at	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (10th)	2–1
W	Sat Aug 15	vs	East County Revolution FC (7th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Clovis Crossfire · Sat Oct 31 vs East Bay United · Sat Nov 7 at East County Revolution FC See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Clovis Crossfire (2nd)	1–1	27%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	East Bay United (22nd)	3–0	92%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	East County Revolution FC (7th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Ceres Rush Athletico (18th)	3–0	86%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Stanford Strikers (9th)	4–1	81%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Legends FC (14th)	2–1	66%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Turlock Academica Jrs (21st)	2–0	84%
·	Sat May 1	at	Silicon Valley Eagles (4th)	2–1	48%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Clovis Crossfire

+16

2.67

DWWWW

+0.07

+0.38

85%

2.8

W	Sat Oct 10	at	South Valley United Soccer Club (11th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (10th)	6–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Legends FC (14th)	2–0
W	Sun Aug 23	at	East County Revolution FC (7th)	3–0
D	Sun Aug 16	vs	SF United FC (6th)	1–1
W	Sat Aug 15	at	Union FC (20th)	5–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Livermore Fusion SC · Sat Oct 31 vs Reno APEX Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 vs Stockton TLJ FC See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Livermore Fusion SC (1st)	1–1	51%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Reno APEX Soccer Club (3rd)	2–1	50%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Stockton TLJ FC (17th)	4–0	90%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	San Jose Rush (12th)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Sacramento Alliance SC 2009/10B (8th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Ceres Rush Athletico (18th)	3–0	89%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Stanford Strikers (9th)	3–1	77%
·	Sat May 1	at	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (5th)	2–1	59%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Reno APEX Soccer Club

+25

2.57

WLWWW

-0.81

+0.34

85%

3.0

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Turlock Academica Jrs (21st)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Solano Surf (19th)	9–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Ceres Rush Athletico (18th)	5–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Sacramento Alliance SC 2009/10B (8th)	1–2
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	San Ramon FC (16th)	5–2
W	Sun Aug 16	vs	Stockton TLJ FC (17th)	6–2
W	Sat Aug 15	at	Stanford Strikers (9th)	6–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs East County Revolution FC · Sat Oct 31 at Clovis Crossfire · Sat Nov 7 vs Tahuichi F.C. Youth Soccer See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	East County Revolution FC (7th)	3–1	72%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Clovis Crossfire (2nd)	1–2	30%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Tahuichi F.C. Youth Soccer (13th)	3–0	82%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	East Bay United (22nd)	4–0	96%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Silicon Valley Eagles (4th)	3–1	66%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	San Jose Rush (12th)	2–1	61%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	South Valley United Soccer Club (11th)	3–1	72%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (5th)	2–1	60%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Silicon Valley Eagles

2.43

WWDDW

-0.31

-0.12

51%

4.5

W	Sat Oct 17	at	East Bay United (22nd)	1–0
D	Sat Oct 10	at	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (5th)	2–2
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	SF United FC (6th)	3–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Ceres Rush Athletico (18th)	2–1
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Turlock Academica Jrs (21st)	1–0
W	Sun Aug 16	vs	Tahuichi F.C. Youth Soccer (13th)	5–1
W	Sat Aug 15	at	Sacramento Alliance SC 2009/10B (8th)	4–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs San Jose Rush · Sat Oct 31 vs Stanford Strikers · Sat Nov 7 at Union FC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	San Jose Rush (12th)	2–1	51%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Stanford Strikers (9th)	3–1	68%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Union FC (20th)	3–1	74%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	San Ramon FC (16th)	3–1	68%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Reno APEX Soccer Club (3rd)	1–3	19%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (10th)	2–1	68%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Solano Surf (19th)	4–1	88%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Walnut Creek Surf (15th)	3–1	69%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Livermore Fusion SC (1st)	1–2	31%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Central Valley Premier FC -RL

2.14

DDWDW

-0.38

+0.46

7.4

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Stanford Strikers (9th)	3–1
D	Sat Oct 10	vs	Silicon Valley Eagles (4th)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Turlock Academica Jrs (21st)	1–0
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Stockton TLJ FC (17th)	2–2
D	Sat Aug 22	vs	Legends FC (14th)	1–1
W	Sun Aug 16	vs	San Ramon FC (16th)	6–3
W	Sat Aug 15	at	Walnut Creek Surf (15th)	3–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sat Oct 31 at South Valley United Soccer Club · Sat Mar 13 vs Sacramento Alliance SC 2009/10B See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (10th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	South Valley United Soccer Club (11th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Sacramento Alliance SC 2009/10B (8th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	East Bay United (22nd)	2–0	78%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	San Jose Rush (12th)	1–1	46%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Reno APEX Soccer Club (3rd)	1–2	23%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Clovis Crossfire (2nd)	1–2	21%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SF United FC

+10

2.00

LWDWW

-0.08

-0.68

56%

4.4

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Stockton TLJ FC (17th)	5–2
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Ceres Rush Athletico (18th)	4–0
D	Sat Sep 26	at	Silicon Valley Eagles (4th)	3–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Walnut Creek Surf (15th)	4–1
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Livermore Fusion SC (1st)	2–3
D	Sun Aug 16	at	Clovis Crossfire (2nd)	1–1
W	Sat Aug 15	vs	Solano Surf (19th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Turlock Academica Jrs · Sat Oct 31 vs Union FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Stanford Strikers See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Turlock Academica Jrs (21st)	2–0	79%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Union FC (20th)	4–1	85%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Stanford Strikers (9th)	3–2	72%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	San Ramon FC (16th)	3–1	71%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	East Bay United (22nd)	3–0	89%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Tahuichi F.C. Youth Soccer (13th)	2–1	60%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	South Valley United Soccer Club (11th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat May 1	at	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (10th)	2–1	62%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

East County Revolution FC

1.86

LWWWD

+0.23

-0.13

6.9

D	Sat Oct 17	at	Sacramento Alliance SC 2009/10B (8th)	3–3
W	Sat Oct 10	at	San Ramon FC (16th)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	San Jose Rush (12th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Turlock Academica Jrs (21st)	3–1
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	Clovis Crossfire (2nd)	0–3
W	Sun Aug 16	at	Stanford Strikers (9th)	8–2
L	Sat Aug 15	at	Livermore Fusion SC (1st)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Reno APEX Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 vs Solano Surf · Sat Nov 7 vs Livermore Fusion SC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Reno APEX Soccer Club (3rd)	1–3	16%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Solano Surf (19th)	5–1	88%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Livermore Fusion SC (1st)	1–2	28%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (10th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	South Valley United Soccer Club (11th)	2–2	37%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Union FC (20th)	3–1	74%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Stockton TLJ FC (17th)	4–1	78%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Tahuichi F.C. Youth Soccer (13th)	2–1	65%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Walnut Creek Surf (15th)	3–2	68%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sacramento Alliance SC 2009/10B

1.83

DWWWD

+0.48

-0.16

7.7

D	Sat Oct 17	vs	East County Revolution FC (7th)	3–3
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Tahuichi F.C. Youth Soccer (13th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Reno APEX Soccer Club (3rd)	2–1
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Ceres Rush Athletico (18th)	4–0
D	Sun Aug 16	at	San Jose Rush (12th)	1–1
L	Sat Aug 15	vs	Silicon Valley Eagles (4th)	2–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at San Ramon FC · Sat Oct 31 at Legends FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Turlock Academica Jrs See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	San Ramon FC (16th)	2–1	62%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Legends FC (14th)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Turlock Academica Jrs (21st)	2–0	72%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (5th)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Clovis Crossfire (2nd)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Walnut Creek Surf (15th)	2–1	53%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	East Bay United (22nd)	2–0	77%
·	Sat May 1	vs	South Valley United Soccer Club (11th)	2–1	45%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Stanford Strikers

-1

1.50

LWWWL

-0.22

+0.08

12.0

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (5th)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 26	at	San Ramon FC (16th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	East Bay United (22nd)	6–0
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	Solano Surf (19th)	4–2
L	Sun Aug 16	vs	East County Revolution FC (7th)	2–8
L	Sat Aug 15	vs	Reno APEX Soccer Club (3rd)	2–6

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Ceres Rush Athletico · Sun Oct 25 at Tahuichi F.C. Youth Soccer · Sat Oct 31 at Silicon Valley Eagles See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Ceres Rush Athletico (18th)	3–2	65%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Tahuichi F.C. Youth Soccer (13th)	2–1	43%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Silicon Valley Eagles (4th)	1–3	18%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	SF United FC (6th)	2–3	16%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Walnut Creek Surf (15th)	3–3	40%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Legends FC (14th)	2–2	48%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Livermore Fusion SC (1st)	1–4	9%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Union FC (20th)	4–2	72%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Clovis Crossfire (2nd)	1–3	11%
·	Sat May 1	at	Stockton TLJ FC (17th)	3–2	53%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Diablo Valley Futbol Club

-4

1.50

LLLWW

+0.01

-0.14

12.4

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Tahuichi F.C. Youth Soccer (13th)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Legends FC (14th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Clovis Crossfire (2nd)	1–6
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	San Ramon FC (16th)	1–2
L	Sun Aug 16	vs	Livermore Fusion SC (1st)	1–2
W	Sat Aug 15	at	East Bay United (22nd)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Central Valley Premier FC -RL · Sat Oct 31 at Stockton TLJ FC · Sat Nov 7 at Ceres Rush Athletico See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (5th)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Stockton TLJ FC (17th)	2–2	42%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Ceres Rush Athletico (18th)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	East County Revolution FC (7th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Solano Surf (19th)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Silicon Valley Eagles (4th)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Walnut Creek Surf (15th)	1–2	32%
·	Sat May 1	vs	SF United FC (6th)	1–2	20%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

South Valley United Soccer Club

1.33

WDDWL

-0.01

+0.09

10.4

L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Clovis Crossfire (2nd)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Walnut Creek Surf (15th)	7–2
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Tahuichi F.C. Youth Soccer (13th)	0–0
D	Sat Aug 22	vs	San Jose Rush (12th)	3–3
W	Sun Aug 16	vs	East Bay United (22nd)	4–0
L	Sat Aug 15	at	Legends FC (14th)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Central Valley Premier FC -RL · Sat Nov 7 at Solano Surf · Sat Mar 13 at Union FC See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (5th)	2–1	45%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Solano Surf (19th)	4–1	79%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Union FC (20th)	3–1	71%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	East County Revolution FC (7th)	2–2	45%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Turlock Academica Jrs (21st)	2–0	67%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Reno APEX Soccer Club (3rd)	1–3	15%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	SF United FC (6th)	1–2	28%
·	Sat May 1	at	Sacramento Alliance SC 2009/10B (8th)	1–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

San Jose Rush

1.33

DDLLW

+0.16

+0.23

11.1

W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Union FC (20th)	4–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	East County Revolution FC (7th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Livermore Fusion SC (1st)	1–3
D	Sat Aug 22	at	South Valley United Soccer Club (11th)	3–3
D	Sun Aug 16	vs	Sacramento Alliance SC 2009/10B (8th)	1–1
W	Sat Aug 15	at	Stockton TLJ FC (17th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Legends FC · Sat Oct 24 at Silicon Valley Eagles · Sat Oct 31 vs Tahuichi F.C. Youth Soccer See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	vs	Legends FC (14th)	1–1	54%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Silicon Valley Eagles (4th)	1–2	28%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Tahuichi F.C. Youth Soccer (13th)	1–0	57%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Clovis Crossfire (2nd)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Reno APEX Soccer Club (3rd)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (5th)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Solano Surf (19th)	3–1	73%
·	Sat May 1	at	Ceres Rush Athletico (18th)	2–1	60%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tahuichi F.C. Youth Soccer

-4

1.17

LWDLL

-0.11

+0.01

13.9

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (10th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Sacramento Alliance SC 2009/10B (8th)	0–1
D	Sat Sep 19	at	South Valley United Soccer Club (11th)	0–0
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	Union FC (20th)	2–1
L	Sun Aug 16	at	Silicon Valley Eagles (4th)	1–5
W	Sat Aug 15	vs	Ceres Rush Athletico (18th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs East Bay United · Sun Oct 25 vs Stanford Strikers · Sat Oct 31 at San Jose Rush See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	East Bay United (22nd)	1–0	62%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Stanford Strikers (9th)	1–2	36%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	San Jose Rush (12th)	0–1	20%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Reno APEX Soccer Club (3rd)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Stockton TLJ FC (17th)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Turlock Academica Jrs (21st)	1–0	50%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Legends FC (14th)	1–1	28%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	SF United FC (6th)	1–2	20%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	East County Revolution FC (7th)	1–2	17%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Legends FC

-2

1.00

WDDLL

+0.31

-0.51

11.9

L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (10th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Clovis Crossfire (2nd)	0–2
D	Sat Aug 22	at	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (5th)	1–1
D	Sun Aug 16	at	Ceres Rush Athletico (18th)	2–2
W	Sat Aug 15	vs	South Valley United Soccer Club (11th)	3–2

Next: Sat Oct 17 at San Jose Rush · Sat Oct 24 vs Solano Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Sacramento Alliance SC 2009/10B See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	at	San Jose Rush (12th)	1–1	24%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Solano Surf (19th)	3–1	71%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Sacramento Alliance SC 2009/10B (8th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	East Bay United (22nd)	2–0	72%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Turlock Academica Jrs (21st)	1–0	52%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Stanford Strikers (9th)	2–2	34%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Tahuichi F.C. Youth Soccer (13th)	1–1	46%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Livermore Fusion SC (1st)	1–2	16%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Union FC (20th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat May 1	at	San Ramon FC (16th)	2–1	46%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Walnut Creek Surf

-3

1.00

WWLLL

+0.14

-0.38

12.5

L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Livermore Fusion SC (1st)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 26	at	South Valley United Soccer Club (11th)	2–7
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	SF United FC (6th)	1–4
W	Sat Aug 22	at	East Bay United (22nd)	3–0
W	Sun Aug 16	at	Solano Surf (19th)	4–0
L	Sat Aug 15	vs	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (5th)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Union FC · Sat Oct 24 at Stockton TLJ FC · Sat Oct 31 at Turlock Academica Jrs See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	vs	Union FC (20th)	3–1	67%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Stockton TLJ FC (17th)	2–2	48%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Turlock Academica Jrs (21st)	1–1	56%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	San Ramon FC (16th)	3–2	58%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Stanford Strikers (9th)	3–3	44%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Ceres Rush Athletico (18th)	2–2	49%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Sacramento Alliance SC 2009/10B (8th)	1–2	29%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (10th)	2–1	49%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Silicon Valley Eagles (4th)	1–3	16%
·	Sat May 1	at	East County Revolution FC (7th)	2–3	18%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

San Ramon FC

-11

0.86

LWLLL

+0.50

-0.13

16.1

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Livermore Fusion SC (1st)	0–4
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	East County Revolution FC (7th)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Stanford Strikers (9th)	1–4
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (10th)	2–1
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Reno APEX Soccer Club (3rd)	2–5
L	Sun Aug 16	at	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (5th)	3–6
W	Sat Aug 15	vs	Turlock Academica Jrs (21st)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sacramento Alliance SC 2009/10B · Sat Nov 7 at Walnut Creek Surf · Sat Mar 13 vs Silicon Valley Eagles See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Sacramento Alliance SC 2009/10B (8th)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Walnut Creek Surf (15th)	2–3	25%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Silicon Valley Eagles (4th)	1–3	17%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	SF United FC (6th)	1–3	15%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Ceres Rush Athletico (18th)	2–2	38%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	East Bay United (22nd)	2–1	60%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Legends FC (14th)	1–2	33%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Stockton TLJ FC

-12

0.67

LDLWL

+0.71

-0.35

16.1

L	Sat Oct 17	at	SF United FC (6th)	2–5
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Turlock Academica Jrs (21st)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Livermore Fusion SC (1st)	0–6
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (5th)	2–2
L	Sun Aug 16	at	Reno APEX Soccer Club (3rd)	2–6
L	Sat Aug 15	vs	San Jose Rush (12th)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Walnut Creek Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sat Nov 7 at Clovis Crossfire See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Walnut Creek Surf (15th)	2–2	34%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (10th)	2–2	38%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Clovis Crossfire (2nd)	0–4	4%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Tahuichi F.C. Youth Soccer (13th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Union FC (20th)	2–2	43%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Solano Surf (19th)	3–2	62%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	East County Revolution FC (7th)	1–4	11%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Ceres Rush Athletico (18th)	2–2	48%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Stanford Strikers (9th)	2–3	31%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Ceres Rush Athletico

-11

0.57

LLLLW

+0.28

+0.09

18.1

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Solano Surf (19th)	5–2
L	Sat Oct 10	at	SF United FC (6th)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Reno APEX Soccer Club (3rd)	1–5
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Silicon Valley Eagles (4th)	1–2
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Sacramento Alliance SC 2009/10B (8th)	0–4
D	Sun Aug 16	vs	Legends FC (14th)	2–2
L	Sat Aug 15	at	Tahuichi F.C. Youth Soccer (13th)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Stanford Strikers · Sat Nov 7 vs Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sat Mar 13 at Livermore Fusion SC See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Stanford Strikers (9th)	2–3	20%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (10th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Livermore Fusion SC (1st)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Walnut Creek Surf (15th)	2–2	32%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Clovis Crossfire (2nd)	0–3	4%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	San Ramon FC (16th)	2–2	42%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Stockton TLJ FC (17th)	2–2	33%
·	Sat May 1	vs	San Jose Rush (12th)	1–2	21%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Solano Surf

-18

0.50

LLWLL

+0.05

-0.02

19.4

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Ceres Rush Athletico (18th)	2–5
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Reno APEX Soccer Club (3rd)	0–9
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Union FC (20th)	4–3
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Stanford Strikers (9th)	2–4
L	Sun Aug 16	vs	Walnut Creek Surf (15th)	0–4
L	Sat Aug 15	at	SF United FC (6th)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Legends FC · Sat Oct 31 at East County Revolution FC · Sat Nov 7 vs South Valley United Soccer Club See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Legends FC (14th)	1–3	15%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	East County Revolution FC (7th)	1–5	5%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	South Valley United Soccer Club (11th)	1–4	11%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (10th)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Stockton TLJ FC (17th)	2–3	23%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Silicon Valley Eagles (4th)	1–4	5%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	San Jose Rush (12th)	1–3	13%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Turlock Academica Jrs (21st)	1–1	44%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Union FC

-10

0.20

LDLLL

-0.28

-0.03

19.0

L	Sat Oct 10	at	San Jose Rush (12th)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Solano Surf (19th)	3–4
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Tahuichi F.C. Youth Soccer (13th)	1–2
D	Sun Aug 16	at	Turlock Academica Jrs (21st)	1–1
L	Sat Aug 15	vs	Clovis Crossfire (2nd)	1–5

Next: Sat Oct 17 at Walnut Creek Surf · Sat Oct 31 at SF United FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Silicon Valley Eagles See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	at	Walnut Creek Surf (15th)	1–3	19%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	SF United FC (6th)	1–4	6%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Silicon Valley Eagles (4th)	1–3	12%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	South Valley United Soccer Club (11th)	1–3	15%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Stockton TLJ FC (17th)	2–2	38%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	East County Revolution FC (7th)	1–3	13%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Stanford Strikers (9th)	2–4	15%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Legends FC (14th)	1–2	26%
·	Sat May 1	vs	East Bay United (22nd)	2–1	60%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Turlock Academica Jrs

-11

0.14

LLLLL

+0.23

+0.10

20.3

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Reno APEX Soccer Club (3rd)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Stockton TLJ FC (17th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (5th)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	East County Revolution FC (7th)	1–3
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Silicon Valley Eagles (4th)	0–1
D	Sun Aug 16	vs	Union FC (20th)	1–1
L	Sat Aug 15	at	San Ramon FC (16th)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at SF United FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Walnut Creek Surf · Sat Nov 7 at Sacramento Alliance SC 2009/10B See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	SF United FC (6th)	0–2	7%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Walnut Creek Surf (15th)	1–1	22%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Sacramento Alliance SC 2009/10B (8th)	0–2	10%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Legends FC (14th)	0–1	21%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Tahuichi F.C. Youth Soccer (13th)	0–1	19%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	South Valley United Soccer Club (11th)	0–2	13%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Livermore Fusion SC (1st)	0–2	4%
·	Sat May 1	at	Solano Surf (19th)	1–1	32%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

East Bay United

-15

0.00

LLLLL

+0.13

+0.32

21.3

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Silicon Valley Eagles (4th)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Stanford Strikers (9th)	0–6
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Walnut Creek Surf (15th)	0–3
L	Sun Aug 16	at	South Valley United Soccer Club (11th)	0–4
L	Sat Aug 15	vs	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (10th)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Tahuichi F.C. Youth Soccer · Sat Oct 31 at Livermore Fusion SC · Sat Nov 7 at Legends FC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Tahuichi F.C. Youth Soccer (13th)	0–1	14%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Livermore Fusion SC (1st)	0–3	2%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Legends FC (14th)	0–2	10%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Reno APEX Soccer Club (3rd)	0–4	1%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (5th)	0–2	8%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	SF United FC (6th)	0–3	3%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Sacramento Alliance SC 2009/10B (8th)	0–2	8%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	San Ramon FC (16th)	1–2	20%
·	Sat May 1	at	Union FC (20th)	1–2	19%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.09 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.