Germantown Legends
ECNL Regional League Boys · Mid-America BU17 · 10 teams · Germantown Legends (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 01:00 PM
Jackson Futbol Club, Field 4 ↗ far trip
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.2 for, 1.7 against · 1.64 expected points)
| Season so far | Germantown Legends | Mississippi Rush United |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 10th | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-1-6 | 3-0-8 |
| Points per game | 0.50 | 0.82 |
| Goals for / game | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| Goals against / game | 3.6 | 2.5 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 7 |
| Form (recent first) | L D L W L | W W L L L |
| Biggest win | 5–2 at Lobos Rush | 3–2 at Germantown Legends |
| Worst loss | 0–4 at Tennessee SC | 0–8 at Alabama FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.15 | -1.27 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.38 | +0.50 |
Already played this season: Sun Aug 23 2–3 vs Mississippi Rush United (L)
Common opponents: Tennessee SC — we 0–4; they 0–1, 0–4. Tennessee SC Murfreesboro — we 1–5; they 1–2, 0–3. Lobos Rush — we 5–2, 1–4; they 0–3.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Mississippi Rush United average 0.6 goals/game (league avg 2.0); blanked in 7 of 11.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 at Tennessee SC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 48% / draw 21% / loss 32%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Away game
Kickoff 01:00 PM at Jackson Futbol Club.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Mississippi Surf sit 9th on 0.64 PPG; we are on 0.50.A point moves us above Mississippi Surf on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Mississippi Rush United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Germantown Legends – Mississippi Rush United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 0.78 PPG |
8th▲ up 2 | 7th▲ up 3 | 9th▲ up 1 |
| Win 0.78 PPG |
8th▲ up 2 | 7th▲ up 3 | 9th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 0.56 PPG |
10th— holds | 10th— holds | 10th— holds |
| Loss 0.44 PPG |
10th— holds | 10th— holds | 10th— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 7th if every rival drops points, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th <1%
- 7th 12%
- 8th 19%
- 9th 32%
- 10th 36%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 1.89 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tennessee SC Murfreesboro | 2.44 (+1.94) | 1st (2.30) | 40 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Tennessee SC | 2.00 (+1.50) | 3rd (1.94) | 32 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Alabama FC Huntsville | 1.90 (+1.40) | 4th (1.89) | 31 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Alabama FC | 1.89 (+1.39) | 2nd (2.16) | 31 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | Lobos Rush | 1.67 (+1.17) | 6th (1.37) | 27 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 6 | North Georgia Soccer Academy | 1.63 (+1.13) | 5th (1.71) | 26 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 7 | FC Alliance TN | 0.88 (+0.38) | 7th (0.82) | 12 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection |
| 8 | Mississippi Rush United | 0.82 (+0.32) | 8th (0.81) | 11 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection |
| 9 | Mississippi Surf | 0.64 (+0.14) | 10th (0.60) | A point next game |
How the results connect
71 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link Germantown Legends to Mississippi Rush United through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
17 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.56 · 2nd hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 10 01:00 PM no score posted |
FC Alliance TN 7th · 2-1-5 · GD -9 |
Home Mike Rose Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
2–1 | 1.56 | 0.62 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 11 12:30 PM no score posted |
North Georgia Soccer Academy 6th · 4-1-3 · GD +10 |
Home Mike Rose Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–3 | 0.56 | 0.61 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 01:00 PM |
Mississippi Rush United 8th · 3-0-8 · GD -20 |
Away far trip
Jackson Futbol Club |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
2–1 | 1.64 | 0.71 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 01:00 PM |
Alabama FC Huntsville 3rd · 6-1-3 · GD +10 |
Home Mike Rose Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–3 | 0.57 | 0.70 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 11:00 AM |
Alabama FC 4th · 5-2-2 · GD +22 |
Home Mike Rose Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
1–4 | 0.20 | 0.66 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 09:00 AM |
Tennessee SC Murfreesboro 1st · 7-1-1 · GD +20 |
Home Memphis University School |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
1–3 | 0.27 | 0.63 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 01:00 PM |
FC Alliance TN 7th · 2-1-5 · GD -9 |
Away far trip
Tommy Shumpert |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.26 | 0.67 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 02:00 PM |
North Georgia Soccer Academy 6th · 4-1-3 · GD +10 |
Away far trip
Heritage Point Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
1–3 | 0.38 | 0.65 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 22 12:30 PM |
Tennessee SC 2nd · 5-3-1 · GD +11 |
Home Mike Rose Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
1–2 | 0.51 | 0.64 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 16 03:00 PM |
Alabama FC 4th · 5-2-2 · GD +22 |
Away far trip
Veterans Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
0–5 | 0.11 | 0.61 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tennessee SC Murfreesboro | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 6 | +20 | 22 | 2.44 | WDWWW | -0.16 | -0.10 | 99% | 1.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 vs Mississippi Surf · Sat Oct 24 at North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sun Oct 25 at FC Alliance TN See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Tennessee SC | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 18 | 2.00 | DDWWD | -0.01 | -0.10 | 80% | 3.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 vs Mississippi Surf · Sat Oct 24 at FC Alliance TN · Sun Oct 25 at North Georgia Soccer Academy See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Alabama FC Huntsville | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 11 | +10 | 19 | 1.90 | WLLWD | +0.10 | -0.23 | 77% | 3.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Mississippi Rush United · Sat Oct 31 at Germantown Legends · Sun Nov 1 at Lobos Rush See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Alabama FC | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 6 | +22 | 17 | 1.89 | WLDWD | +0.18 | -0.55 | 99% | 2.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Lobos Rush · Sun Nov 1 at Germantown Legends · Sat Nov 7 at Mississippi Rush United See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Lobos Rush | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 15 | 1.67 | LLLWW | -0.33 | +0.42 | 3% | 5.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sun Oct 11 vs FC Alliance TN · Sat Oct 31 vs Alabama FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | North Georgia Soccer Academy | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 13 | 1.63 | WWWDL | -0.31 | +0.02 | 41% | 4.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at FC Alliance TN · Sat Oct 10 at Lobos Rush · Sun Oct 11 at Germantown Legends See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | FC Alliance TN | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 7 | 0.88 | LWWLD | -0.31 | +0.34 | 0% | 7.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sat Oct 10 at Germantown Legends · Sun Oct 11 at Lobos Rush See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Mississippi Rush United | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 27 | -20 | 9 | 0.82 | LLLWW | +0.50 | -0.32 | 0% | 7.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Alabama FC Huntsville · Sun Oct 25 vs Germantown Legends · Sat Nov 7 vs Alabama FC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Mississippi Surf | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 50 | -29 | 7 | 0.64 | LDLDD | +0.02 | +0.63 | 0% | 9.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 at Tennessee SC · Sun Sep 27 at Tennessee SC Murfreesboro · Sat Nov 7 vs Alabama FC Huntsville See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Germantown Legends | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 29 | -12 | 4 | 0.50 | LWLDL | -0.38 | +0.56 | 0% | 8.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs FC Alliance TN · Sun Oct 11 vs North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sun Oct 25 at Mississippi Rush United See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.97 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.