Alabama FC Huntsville
ECNL Regional League Boys · Mid-America BU17 · 10 teams · Alabama FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:00 PM
Merrimack Sports Complex, Field 14 ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.6 for, 0.6 against · 2.51 expected points)
| Season so far | Alabama FC Huntsville | Mississippi Rush United |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 6-1-3 | 3-0-8 |
| Points per game | 1.90 | 0.82 |
| Goals for / game | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| Goals against / game | 1.1 | 2.5 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 7 |
| Form (recent first) | D W L L W | W W L L L |
| Biggest win | 6–0 vs Mississippi Surf | 3–2 at Germantown Legends |
| Worst loss | 1–3 at North Georgia Soccer Academy | 0–8 at Alabama FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.75 | -1.27 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.10 | +0.50 |
Common opponents: North Georgia Soccer Academy — we 3–2, 1–3; they 0–2, 1–0. FC Alliance TN — we 2–0, 2–1; they 0–1, 2–1. Lobos Rush — we 3–1; they 0–3. Germantown Legends — we 3–1; they 3–2. Tennessee SC — we 0–1; they 0–1, 0–4. Tennessee SC Murfreesboro — we 0–1; they 1–2, 0–3. Alabama FC — we 1–1; they 0–8.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Mississippi Rush United average 0.6 goals/game (league avg 2.0); blanked in 7 of 11.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–1 at Tennessee SC, 0–1 at Tennessee SC Murfreesboro.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 79% chance; likely score 2–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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What a win does
Tennessee SC sit 2nd on 2.00 PPG; we are on 1.90.A win moves us above Tennessee SC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Mississippi Rush United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Alabama FC Huntsville – Mississippi Rush United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 1 | 2nd▲ up 1 | 3rd— holds |
| Win 2.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 1 | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Draw 1.82 PPG |
4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 1.73 PPG |
4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 2%
- 2nd 10%
- 3rd 28%
- 4th 36%
- 5th 21%
- 6th 2%
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.39 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tennessee SC Murfreesboro | 2.44 (+0.54) | 1st (2.30) | 25 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 2 | Tennessee SC | 2.00 (+0.10) | 3rd (1.94) | Win next game |
How the results connect
79 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Alabama FC Huntsville to Mississippi Rush United through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
17 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.23 · 8th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 02:00 PM |
Mississippi Rush United 8th · 3-0-8 · GD -20 |
Home Merrimack Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 79% |
2–0 | 2.51 | 1.96 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 31 01:00 PM |
Germantown Legends 10th · 1-1-6 · GD -12 |
Away far trip
Mike Rose Soccer Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
3–1 | 2.28 | 1.98 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 1 11:00 AM |
Lobos Rush 5th · 5-0-4 · GD -3 |
Away far trip
Progress Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 58% |
2–1 | 1.94 | 1.98 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 03:00 PM |
Mississippi Surf 9th · 1-4-6 · GD -29 |
Away far trip
BankPlus Sportsplex at Ballard Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 82% |
3–1 | 2.56 | 2.02 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 8 11:00 AM |
Mississippi Rush United 8th · 3-0-8 · GD -20 |
Away far trip
Freedom Ridge Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
2–0 | 2.34 | 2.04 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 14 02:00 PM |
Tennessee SC 2nd · 5-3-1 · GD +11 |
Home Merrimack Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
1–1 | 1.34 | 2.00 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 12:00 PM |
Tennessee SC Murfreesboro 1st · 7-1-1 · GD +20 |
Home Merrimack Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
1–1 | 1.08 | 1.94 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 12:00 PM |
Alabama FC 4th · 5-2-2 · GD +22 |
Home Merrimack Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
1–1 | 0.96 | 1.89 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tennessee SC Murfreesboro | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 6 | +20 | 22 | 2.44 | WDWWW | -0.16 | -0.10 | 99% | 1.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 vs Mississippi Surf · Sat Oct 24 at North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sun Oct 25 at FC Alliance TN See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Tennessee SC | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 18 | 2.00 | DDWWD | -0.01 | -0.10 | 82% | 3.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 vs Mississippi Surf · Sat Oct 24 at FC Alliance TN · Sun Oct 25 at North Georgia Soccer Academy See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Alabama FC Huntsville | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 11 | +10 | 19 | 1.90 | WLLWD | +0.10 | -0.23 | 77% | 3.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Mississippi Rush United · Sat Oct 31 at Germantown Legends · Sun Nov 1 at Lobos Rush See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Alabama FC | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 6 | +22 | 17 | 1.89 | WLDWD | +0.18 | -0.55 | 99% | 2.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Lobos Rush · Sun Nov 1 at Germantown Legends · Sat Nov 7 at Mississippi Rush United See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Lobos Rush | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 15 | 1.67 | LLLWW | -0.33 | +0.42 | 3% | 5.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sun Oct 11 vs FC Alliance TN · Sat Oct 31 vs Alabama FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | North Georgia Soccer Academy | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 13 | 1.63 | WWWDL | -0.31 | +0.02 | 41% | 4.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at FC Alliance TN · Sat Oct 10 at Lobos Rush · Sun Oct 11 at Germantown Legends See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | FC Alliance TN | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 7 | 0.88 | LWWLD | -0.31 | +0.34 | 0% | 7.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sat Oct 10 at Germantown Legends · Sun Oct 11 at Lobos Rush See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Mississippi Rush United | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 27 | -20 | 9 | 0.82 | LLLWW | +0.50 | -0.32 | 0% | 7.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Alabama FC Huntsville · Sun Oct 25 vs Germantown Legends · Sat Nov 7 vs Alabama FC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Mississippi Surf | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 50 | -29 | 7 | 0.64 | LDLDD | +0.02 | +0.63 | 0% | 9.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 at Tennessee SC · Sun Sep 27 at Tennessee SC Murfreesboro · Sat Nov 7 vs Alabama FC Huntsville See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Germantown Legends | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 29 | -12 | 4 | 0.50 | LWLDL | -0.38 | +0.56 | 0% | 8.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs FC Alliance TN · Sun Oct 11 vs North Georgia Soccer Academy · Sun Oct 25 at Mississippi Rush United See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.97 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.