St. Louis Stars SC
ECNL Regional League Boys · Heartland BU13 · 10 teams · St. Louis Stars SC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 31, 09:00 AM
Sport 360 Soccer Zone, Field 2 ↗
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 3.0 for, 1.3 against · 2.30 expected points)
| Season so far | St. Louis Stars SC | Missouri Rush |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-0-3 | 6-0-2 |
| Points per game | 1.88 | 2.25 |
| Goals for / game | 3.9 | 2.9 |
| Goals against / game | 0.8 | 1.9 |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W L W | W W W W W |
| Biggest win | 8–0 at Kansas Rush | 5–0 at Union KC Soccer Club Red |
| Worst loss | 0–2 at Southwest MO Rush | 0–8 at Kansas City Surf |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +2.24 | +0.74 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.51 | -0.51 |
Common opponents: Toca Fusion Elite — we 1–2; they 0–2. Kansas City Surf — we 1–2; they 0–8. Union KC Soccer Club Red — we 2–0; they 5–0. Union KC Soccer Club Navy — we 7–0; they 3–0. Southwest MO Rush — we 0–2; they 2–1. FC Wichita — we 6–0; they 4–1. Kansas City Athletics — we 6–0; they 6–2. Kansas Rush — we 8–0; they 3–1.
Game plan
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 at Southwest MO Rush.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 72% chance; likely score 2–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
-
They arrive in form
Missouri Rush have won 6 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
-
Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Missouri Rush game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (St. Louis Stars SC – Missouri Rush) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.00 PPG |
4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 |
| Win 2.00 PPG |
4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.78 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Loss 1.67 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 19%
- 3rd 33%
- 4th 33%
- 5th 14%
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas City Surf | 3.00 (+1.12) | 1st (2.73) | 39 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Southwest MO Rush | 2.50 (+0.62) | 2nd (2.34) | 30 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 3 | Toca Fusion Elite | 2.25 (+0.37) | 3rd (2.16) | 26 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 4 | Missouri Rush | 2.25 (+0.37) | 5th (1.94) | 26 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
How the results connect
50 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link St. Louis Stars SC to Missouri Rush through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
14 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.14 · 7th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 31 09:00 AM |
Missouri Rush 4th · 6-0-2 · GD +8 |
Home Sport 360 Soccer Zone |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
2–1 | 2.30 | 1.92 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
Missouri Rush 4th · 6-0-2 · GD +8 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 62% |
2–1 | 2.05 | 1.93 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
Union KC Soccer Club Red 7th · 2-0-5 · GD -21 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 96% |
5–0 | 2.91 | 2.02 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
Union KC Soccer Club Navy 6th · 2-0-5 · GD -14 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 93% |
4–0 | 2.84 | 2.09 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Kansas Rush 8th · 2-0-6 · GD -20 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 96% |
5–0 | 2.90 | 2.15 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
Kansas City Athletics 10th · 0-1-7 · GD -26 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 97% |
5–0 | 2.93 | 2.21 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Southwest MO Rush 2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +21 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 42% |
1–1 | 1.49 | 2.16 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
FC Wichita 9th · 1-1-5 · GD -28 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 98% |
5–0 | 2.95 | 2.21 | Bank it |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
Toca Fusion Elite 3rd · 6-0-2 · GD +16 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
2–1 | 1.98 | 2.20 | Swing game |
| Sun May 9 TBD |
Kansas City Surf 1st · 7-0-0 · GD +39 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
1–2 | 1.07 | 2.13 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas City Surf | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 42 | 3 | +39 | 21 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.61 | -0.30 | 100% | 1.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Kansas Rush · Sat Nov 14 at Southwest MO Rush · Sat Dec 5 vs Union KC Soccer Club Navy See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Southwest MO Rush | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 2 | +21 | 15 | 2.50 | WWWWL | -0.27 | -0.14 | 97% | 2.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Union KC Soccer Club Red · Sat Oct 31 vs Union KC Soccer Club Navy · Sat Nov 14 vs Kansas City Surf See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Toca Fusion Elite | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 27 | 11 | +16 | 18 | 2.25 | WWWWL | +0.06 | -0.38 | 87% | 3.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Kansas City Athletics · Sat Dec 5 vs Union KC Soccer Club Red · Sun Dec 6 vs Union KC Soccer Club Navy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Missouri Rush | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 15 | +8 | 18 | 2.25 | WWWWW | -0.51 | +0.16 | 30% | 4.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at St. Louis Stars SC · Sat Mar 6 vs St. Louis Stars SC · Sat Mar 13 vs Union KC Soccer Club Navy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | St. Louis Stars SC | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 31 | 6 | +25 | 15 | 1.88 | WLWWW | -0.51 | -0.14 | 86% | 3.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Missouri Rush · Sat Mar 6 at Missouri Rush · Sat Mar 13 vs Union KC Soccer Club Red See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Union KC Soccer Club Navy | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 25 | -14 | 6 | 0.86 | LLWLL | +0.32 | +0.10 | 0% | 6.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Wichita · Sat Oct 31 at Southwest MO Rush · Sat Dec 5 at Kansas City Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Union KC Soccer Club Red | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 31 | -21 | 6 | 0.86 | LWWLL | +0.40 | +0.15 | 0% | 7.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Southwest MO Rush · Sat Oct 31 at FC Wichita · Sat Dec 5 at Toca Fusion Elite See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Kansas Rush | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 32 | -20 | 6 | 0.75 | LWLLL | -0.17 | +0.57 | 0% | 7.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Kansas City Surf · Sat Mar 20 at FC Wichita · Sat Mar 27 at Kansas City Athletics See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | FC Wichita | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 34 | -28 | 4 | 0.57 | LLLLL | +1.01 | -0.06 | 0% | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Union KC Soccer Club Navy · Sat Oct 31 vs Union KC Soccer Club Red · Sat Feb 27 at Southwest MO Rush See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | Kansas City Athletics | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 32 | -26 | 1 | 0.13 | LLLLL | +0.14 | +0.40 | 0% | 9.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Toca Fusion Elite · Sun Mar 21 at FC Wichita · Sat Mar 27 vs Kansas Rush See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.59 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.