Union KC Soccer Club Navy
ECNL Regional League Boys · Heartland BU13 · 10 teams · Union KC Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM
Stryker Soccer Complex, Field 3 ↗ far trip
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.8 for, 2.0 against · 1.83 expected points)
| Season so far | Union KC Soccer Club Navy | FC Wichita |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 9th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-0-5 | 1-1-5 |
| Points per game | 0.86 | 0.57 |
| Goals for / game | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Goals against / game | 3.6 | 4.9 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 5 |
| Form (recent first) | L L W L L | L L L L L |
| Biggest win | 5–1 vs Union KC Soccer Club Red | 5–2 at Kansas Rush |
| Worst loss | 0–7 vs St. Louis Stars SC | 0–10 vs Toca Fusion Elite |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.37 | -2.59 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.32 | +1.01 |
Common opponents: Missouri Rush — we 0–3; they 1–4. St. Louis Stars SC — we 0–7; they 0–6. Kansas Rush — we 1–3; they 5–2. Kansas City Athletics — we 2–0; they 0–0. Kansas City Surf — we 1–7; they 0–5. Toca Fusion Elite — we 2–4; they 0–10.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
FC Wichita average 0.9 goals/game (league avg 2.6); blanked in 5 of 7.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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They leak goals — be greedy
FC Wichita concede 4.9/game; worst result 0–10 vs Toca Fusion Elite.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–3 vs Missouri Rush, 0–7 vs St. Louis Stars SC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 55% / draw 18% / loss 27%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Confidence is low on their side
FC Wichita have lost 5 straight (form: LLLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
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Away game
Kickoff 09:00 AM at Stryker Soccer Complex.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the FC Wichita game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Union KC Soccer Club Navy – FC Wichita) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.13 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
| Win 1.13 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
| Draw 0.88 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 7th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.75 PPG |
8th▼ down 2 | 7th▼ down 1 | 8th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 6th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th 54%
- 7th 27%
- 8th 14%
- 9th 5%
- 10th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.17 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas City Surf | 3.00 (+2.14) | 1st (2.73) | 48 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Southwest MO Rush | 2.50 (+1.64) | 2nd (2.34) | 39 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Toca Fusion Elite | 2.25 (+1.39) | 3rd (2.16) | 35 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection |
| 4 | Missouri Rush | 2.25 (+1.39) | 5th (1.94) | 35 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection |
| 5 | St. Louis Stars SC | 1.88 (+1.02) | 4th (2.13) | 28 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection |
How the results connect
41 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link Union KC Soccer Club Navy to FC Wichita through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
14 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.10 · 5th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 09:00 AM |
FC Wichita 9th · 1-1-5 · GD -28 |
Away far trip
Stryker Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
2–1 | 1.83 | 0.98 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 12:00 PM |
Southwest MO Rush 2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +21 |
Away far trip
Lake Country Soccer Complex North 1 |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
0–4 | 0.12 | 0.88 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 5 TBD |
Kansas City Surf 1st · 7-0-0 · GD +39 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–6 | 0.03 | 0.80 | Upside |
| Sun Dec 6 TBD |
Toca Fusion Elite 3rd · 6-0-2 · GD +16 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 5% |
1–4 | 0.22 | 0.75 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
Missouri Rush 4th · 6-0-2 · GD +8 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
1–3 | 0.40 | 0.72 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
St. Louis Stars SC 5th · 5-0-3 · GD +25 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
0–4 | 0.11 | 0.67 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 27 11:00 AM |
Union KC Soccer Club Red 7th · 2-0-5 · GD -21 |
Away Paragon Star |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
2–2 | 1.49 | 0.73 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 08:00 AM |
Kansas City Athletics 10th · 0-1-7 · GD -26 |
Home Paragon Star |
●●○○○ Lean win | 65% |
2–1 | 2.12 | 0.82 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Kansas Rush 8th · 2-0-6 · GD -20 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
2–2 | 1.48 | 0.86 | Swing game |
| Sat May 8 11:00 AM |
Southwest MO Rush 2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +21 |
Home Paragon Star |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
0–3 | 0.20 | 0.82 | Upside |
| Sun May 9 08:00 AM |
FC Wichita 9th · 1-1-5 · GD -28 |
Home Paragon Star |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
3–1 | 2.13 | 0.89 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas City Surf | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 42 | 3 | +39 | 21 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.61 | -0.30 | 100% | 1.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Kansas Rush · Sat Nov 14 at Southwest MO Rush · Sat Dec 5 vs Union KC Soccer Club Navy See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Southwest MO Rush | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 2 | +21 | 15 | 2.50 | WWWWL | -0.27 | -0.14 | 97% | 2.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Union KC Soccer Club Red · Sat Oct 31 vs Union KC Soccer Club Navy · Sat Nov 14 vs Kansas City Surf See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Toca Fusion Elite | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 27 | 11 | +16 | 18 | 2.25 | WWWWL | +0.06 | -0.38 | 87% | 3.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Kansas City Athletics · Sat Dec 5 vs Union KC Soccer Club Red · Sun Dec 6 vs Union KC Soccer Club Navy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Missouri Rush | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 15 | +8 | 18 | 2.25 | WWWWW | -0.51 | +0.16 | 32% | 4.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at St. Louis Stars SC · Sat Mar 6 vs St. Louis Stars SC · Sat Mar 13 vs Union KC Soccer Club Navy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | St. Louis Stars SC | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 31 | 6 | +25 | 15 | 1.88 | WLWWW | -0.51 | -0.14 | 84% | 3.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Missouri Rush · Sat Mar 6 at Missouri Rush · Sat Mar 13 vs Union KC Soccer Club Red See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Union KC Soccer Club Navy | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 25 | -14 | 6 | 0.86 | LLWLL | +0.32 | +0.10 | 0% | 6.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Wichita · Sat Oct 31 at Southwest MO Rush · Sat Dec 5 at Kansas City Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Union KC Soccer Club Red | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 31 | -21 | 6 | 0.86 | LWWLL | +0.40 | +0.15 | 0% | 7.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Southwest MO Rush · Sat Oct 31 at FC Wichita · Sat Dec 5 at Toca Fusion Elite See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Kansas Rush | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 32 | -20 | 6 | 0.75 | LWLLL | -0.17 | +0.57 | 0% | 7.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Kansas City Surf · Sat Mar 20 at FC Wichita · Sat Mar 27 at Kansas City Athletics See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | FC Wichita | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 34 | -28 | 4 | 0.57 | LLLLL | +1.01 | -0.06 | 0% | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Union KC Soccer Club Navy · Sat Oct 31 vs Union KC Soccer Club Red · Sat Feb 27 at Southwest MO Rush See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Kansas City Athletics | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 32 | -26 | 1 | 0.13 | LLLLL | +0.14 | +0.40 | 0% | 9.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Toca Fusion Elite · Sun Mar 21 at FC Wichita · Sat Mar 27 vs Kansas Rush See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.59 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.