Southwest MO Rush
ECNL Regional League Boys · Heartland BU13 · 10 teams · Southwest MO Rush (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM
Lake Country Soccer Complex North 4 - 2145 E. Pyth, Field 4 ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 5–0 (expected goals 5.3 for, 0.8 against · 2.91 expected points)
| Season so far | Southwest MO Rush | Union KC Soccer Club Red |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 7th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-0-1 | 2-0-5 |
| Points per game | 2.50 | 0.86 |
| Goals for / game | 3.8 | 1.4 |
| Goals against / game | 0.3 | 4.4 |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 3 |
| Form (recent first) | L W W W W | L L W W L |
| Biggest win | 7–0 at FC Wichita | 6–1 vs Kansas Rush |
| Worst loss | 1–2 vs Missouri Rush | 1–10 vs Kansas City Surf |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +2.16 | -1.99 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.27 | +0.40 |
Common opponents: Kansas City Athletics — we 6–0; they 2–1. Kansas Rush — we 4–0; they 6–1. Toca Fusion Elite — we 3–0; they 0–7. St. Louis Stars SC — we 2–0; they 0–2. Missouri Rush — we 1–2; they 0–5.
Game plan
-
They leak goals — be greedy
Union KC Soccer Club Red concede 4.4/game; worst result 1–10 vs Kansas City Surf.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 96% chance; likely score 5–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Union KC Soccer Club Red game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Southwest MO Rush – Union KC Soccer Club Red) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.57 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Win 2.57 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Draw 2.29 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Loss 2.14 PPG |
4th▼ down 2 | 4th▼ down 2 | 4th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 5–0 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 5%
- 2nd 60%
- 3rd 21%
- 4th 11%
- 5th 2%
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.83 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas City Surf | 3.00 (+0.50) | 1st (2.73) | 39 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection |
How the results connect
36 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link Southwest MO Rush to Union KC Soccer Club Red through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
14 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.14 · 8th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 12:00 PM |
Union KC Soccer Club Red 7th · 2-0-5 · GD -21 |
Home Lake Country Soccer Complex North 4 - 2145 E. Pyth |
●○○○○ Favorable | 96% |
5–0 | 2.91 | 2.56 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 31 12:00 PM |
Union KC Soccer Club Navy 6th · 2-0-5 · GD -14 |
Home Lake Country Soccer Complex North 1 |
●○○○○ Favorable | 93% |
4–0 | 2.83 | 2.59 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 14 12:00 PM |
Kansas City Surf 1st · 7-0-0 · GD +39 |
Home Lake Country Soccer Complex North 1 |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
1–2 | 1.10 | 2.43 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 27 12:00 PM |
FC Wichita 9th · 1-1-5 · GD -28 |
Home Lake Country Soccer Complex North 1 |
●○○○○ Favorable | 97% |
5–0 | 2.94 | 2.48 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Kansas City Surf 1st · 7-0-0 · GD +39 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
1–2 | 0.85 | 2.33 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
Toca Fusion Elite 3rd · 6-0-2 · GD +16 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
2–1 | 1.71 | 2.28 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
St. Louis Stars SC 5th · 5-0-3 · GD +25 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
1–1 | 1.28 | 2.20 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Missouri Rush 4th · 6-0-2 · GD +8 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 62% |
2–1 | 2.05 | 2.19 | Swing game |
| Sat May 1 12:00 PM |
Kansas City Athletics 10th · 0-1-7 · GD -26 |
Home Lake Country Soccer Complex North 3 |
●○○○○ Favorable | 97% |
5–0 | 2.93 | 2.24 | Bank it |
| Sun May 2 10:00 AM |
Kansas Rush 8th · 2-0-6 · GD -20 |
Home Lake Country Soccer Complex North 1 |
●○○○○ Favorable | 96% |
5–0 | 2.90 | 2.28 | Bank it |
| Sat May 8 11:00 AM |
Union KC Soccer Club Navy 6th · 2-0-5 · GD -14 |
Away far trip
Paragon Star |
●○○○○ Favorable | 88% |
3–0 | 2.73 | 2.31 | Bank it |
| Sun May 9 08:00 AM |
Union KC Soccer Club Red 7th · 2-0-5 · GD -21 |
Away far trip
Paragon Star |
●○○○○ Favorable | 93% |
4–0 | 2.83 | 2.34 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas City Surf | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 42 | 3 | +39 | 21 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.61 | -0.30 | 100% | 1.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Kansas Rush · Sat Nov 14 at Southwest MO Rush · Sat Dec 5 vs Union KC Soccer Club Navy See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Southwest MO Rush | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 2 | +21 | 15 | 2.50 | WWWWL | -0.27 | -0.14 | 98% | 2.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Union KC Soccer Club Red · Sat Oct 31 vs Union KC Soccer Club Navy · Sat Nov 14 vs Kansas City Surf See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Toca Fusion Elite | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 27 | 11 | +16 | 18 | 2.25 | WWWWL | +0.06 | -0.38 | 88% | 3.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Kansas City Athletics · Sat Dec 5 vs Union KC Soccer Club Red · Sun Dec 6 vs Union KC Soccer Club Navy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Missouri Rush | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 15 | +8 | 18 | 2.25 | WWWWW | -0.51 | +0.16 | 30% | 4.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at St. Louis Stars SC · Sat Mar 6 vs St. Louis Stars SC · Sat Mar 13 vs Union KC Soccer Club Navy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | St. Louis Stars SC | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 31 | 6 | +25 | 15 | 1.88 | WLWWW | -0.51 | -0.14 | 85% | 3.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Missouri Rush · Sat Mar 6 at Missouri Rush · Sat Mar 13 vs Union KC Soccer Club Red See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Union KC Soccer Club Navy | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 25 | -14 | 6 | 0.86 | LLWLL | +0.32 | +0.10 | 0% | 6.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Wichita · Sat Oct 31 at Southwest MO Rush · Sat Dec 5 at Kansas City Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Union KC Soccer Club Red | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 31 | -21 | 6 | 0.86 | LWWLL | +0.40 | +0.15 | 0% | 7.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Southwest MO Rush · Sat Oct 31 at FC Wichita · Sat Dec 5 at Toca Fusion Elite See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Kansas Rush | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 32 | -20 | 6 | 0.75 | LWLLL | -0.17 | +0.57 | 0% | 7.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Kansas City Surf · Sat Mar 20 at FC Wichita · Sat Mar 27 at Kansas City Athletics See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | FC Wichita | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 34 | -28 | 4 | 0.57 | LLLLL | +1.01 | -0.06 | 0% | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Union KC Soccer Club Navy · Sat Oct 31 vs Union KC Soccer Club Red · Sat Feb 27 at Southwest MO Rush See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | Kansas City Athletics | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 32 | -26 | 1 | 0.13 | LLLLL | +0.14 | +0.40 | 0% | 9.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Toca Fusion Elite · Sun Mar 21 at FC Wichita · Sat Mar 27 vs Kansas Rush See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.59 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.