Kansas Rush
ECNL Regional League Boys · Heartland BU13 · 10 teams · Kansas Rush (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 31, 10:00 AM
Compass Minerals National Performance Center, WEST ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 0–6 (expected goals 0.9 for, 6.6 against · 0.03 expected points)
| Season so far | Kansas Rush | Kansas City Surf |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 8th | 1st |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-0-6 | 7-0-0 |
| Points per game | 0.75 | 3.00 |
| Goals for / game | 1.5 | 6.0 |
| Goals against / game | 4.0 | 0.4 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 4 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L W L | W W W W W |
| Biggest win | 3–1 at Union KC Soccer Club Navy | 10–1 at Union KC Soccer Club Red |
| Worst loss | 0–8 vs St. Louis Stars SC | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.92 | +3.70 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.17 | -0.61 |
Common opponents: FC Wichita — we 2–5; they 5–0. Kansas City Athletics — we 4–3; they 6–0. Toca Fusion Elite — we 1–2; they 4–0. Union KC Soccer Club Navy — we 3–1; they 7–1. Union KC Soccer Club Red — we 1–6; they 10–1. Missouri Rush — we 1–3; they 8–0. St. Louis Stars SC — we 0–8; they 2–1.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Kansas City Surf score 6.0/game — well above the league's 2.6.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Hard to break down
Kansas City Surf concede only 0.4/game with 4 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–4 vs Southwest MO Rush, 0–8 vs St. Louis Stars SC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 1%; a draw (1%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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They arrive in form
Kansas City Surf have won 7 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
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What a win does
Union KC Soccer Club Red sit 7th on 0.86 PPG; we are on 0.75.A point moves us above Union KC Soccer Club Red on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Kansas City Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Kansas Rush – Kansas City Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.67 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 9th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.00 PPG |
6th▲ up 2 | 6th▲ up 2 | 8th— holds |
| Draw 0.78 PPG |
8th— holds | 7th▲ up 1 | 9th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.67 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 9th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–6 loss we stay 8th even if every rival loses, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th 12%
- 7th 26%
- 8th 36%
- 9th 23%
- 10th 3%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas City Surf | 3.00 (+2.25) | 1st (2.73) | 48 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Southwest MO Rush | 2.50 (+1.75) | 2nd (2.34) | 39 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Toca Fusion Elite | 2.25 (+1.50) | 3rd (2.16) | 35 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Missouri Rush | 2.25 (+1.50) | 5th (1.94) | 35 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection |
| 5 | St. Louis Stars SC | 1.88 (+1.13) | 4th (2.13) | 28 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 6 | Union KC Soccer Club Navy | 0.86 (+0.11) | 6th (0.89) | A point next game |
| 7 | Union KC Soccer Club Red | 0.86 (+0.11) | 7th (0.82) | A point next game |
How the results connect
46 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link Kansas Rush to Kansas City Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
14 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.57 · 1st hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 31 10:00 AM |
Kansas City Surf 1st · 7-0-0 · GD +39 |
Home Compass Minerals National Performance Center |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–6 | 0.03 | 0.67 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
FC Wichita 9th · 1-1-5 · GD -28 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
2–2 | 1.61 | 0.76 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 27 TBD |
Kansas City Athletics 10th · 0-1-7 · GD -26 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
2–1 | 1.63 | 0.84 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
St. Louis Stars SC 5th · 5-0-3 · GD +25 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–5 | 0.07 | 0.78 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
Missouri Rush 4th · 6-0-2 · GD +8 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
1–4 | 0.27 | 0.74 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Union KC Soccer Club Red 7th · 2-0-5 · GD -21 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.59 | 0.80 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Union KC Soccer Club Navy 6th · 2-0-5 · GD -14 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
2–2 | 1.34 | 0.84 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 10:00 AM |
Southwest MO Rush 2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +21 |
Away far trip
Lake Country Soccer Complex North 1 |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–5 | 0.07 | 0.79 | Upside |
| Sat May 22 TBD |
Toca Fusion Elite 3rd · 6-0-2 · GD +16 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
1–4 | 0.14 | 0.75 | Upside |
| Sun May 23 TBD |
Kansas City Surf 1st · 7-0-0 · GD +39 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
0–7 | 0.02 | 0.71 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Kansas City Surf | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 42 | 3 | +39 | 21 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.61 | -0.30 | 100% | 1.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Kansas Rush · Sat Nov 14 at Southwest MO Rush · Sat Dec 5 vs Union KC Soccer Club Navy See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Southwest MO Rush | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 2 | +21 | 15 | 2.50 | WWWWL | -0.27 | -0.14 | 97% | 2.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Union KC Soccer Club Red · Sat Oct 31 vs Union KC Soccer Club Navy · Sat Nov 14 vs Kansas City Surf See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Toca Fusion Elite | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 27 | 11 | +16 | 18 | 2.25 | WWWWL | +0.06 | -0.38 | 87% | 3.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Kansas City Athletics · Sat Dec 5 vs Union KC Soccer Club Red · Sun Dec 6 vs Union KC Soccer Club Navy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Missouri Rush | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 15 | +8 | 18 | 2.25 | WWWWW | -0.51 | +0.16 | 30% | 4.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at St. Louis Stars SC · Sat Mar 6 vs St. Louis Stars SC · Sat Mar 13 vs Union KC Soccer Club Navy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | St. Louis Stars SC | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 31 | 6 | +25 | 15 | 1.88 | WLWWW | -0.51 | -0.14 | 86% | 3.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Missouri Rush · Sat Mar 6 at Missouri Rush · Sat Mar 13 vs Union KC Soccer Club Red See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Union KC Soccer Club Navy | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 25 | -14 | 6 | 0.86 | LLWLL | +0.32 | +0.10 | 0% | 6.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Wichita · Sat Oct 31 at Southwest MO Rush · Sat Dec 5 at Kansas City Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Union KC Soccer Club Red | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 31 | -21 | 6 | 0.86 | LWWLL | +0.40 | +0.15 | 0% | 7.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Southwest MO Rush · Sat Oct 31 at FC Wichita · Sat Dec 5 at Toca Fusion Elite See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Kansas Rush | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 32 | -20 | 6 | 0.75 | LWLLL | -0.17 | +0.57 | 0% | 7.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Kansas City Surf · Sat Mar 20 at FC Wichita · Sat Mar 27 at Kansas City Athletics See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | FC Wichita | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 34 | -28 | 4 | 0.57 | LLLLL | +1.01 | -0.06 | 0% | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Union KC Soccer Club Navy · Sat Oct 31 vs Union KC Soccer Club Red · Sat Feb 27 at Southwest MO Rush See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Kansas City Athletics | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 32 | -26 | 1 | 0.13 | LLLLL | +0.14 | +0.40 | 0% | 9.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Toca Fusion Elite · Sun Mar 21 at FC Wichita · Sat Mar 27 vs Kansas Rush See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.59 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.