Missouri Rush

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Sport 360 Soccer Zone, Field 2 ↗

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.3 for, 3.0 against · 0.55 expected points)

Common opponents: Kansas City Surf — we 0–8; they 1–2. Toca Fusion Elite — we 0–2; they 1–2. Union KC Soccer Club Navy — we 3–0; they 7–0. Union KC Soccer Club Red — we 5–0; they 2–0. FC Wichita — we 4–1; they 6–0. Southwest MO Rush — we 2–1; they 0–2. Kansas Rush — we 3–1; they 8–0. Kansas City Athletics — we 6–2; they 6–0.

• Respect their attack
  St. Louis Stars SC score 3.9/game — well above the league's 2.6.

  Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

• Hard to break down
  St. Louis Stars SC concede only 0.8/game with 5 clean sheet(s).

  Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–8 at Kansas City Surf, 0–2 at Toca Fusion Elite.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Underdog — play free, stay organised
  Model gives 14%; a draw (15%) would be a good result.

  Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

• They arrive in form
  St. Louis Stars SC have won 3 straight.

  Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

• Away game
  Kickoff 09:00 AM at Sport 360 Soccer Zone.

  Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

• Early kickoff
  Game time 09:00 AM.

  Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

• What a win does
  Toca Fusion Elite sit 3rd on 2.25 PPG; we are on 2.25.

  A point moves us above Toca Fusion Elite on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the St. Louis Stars SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Missouri Rush – St. Louis Stars SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we fall to at least 5th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

1. 1st <1%
2. 2nd 2%
3. 3rd 9%
4. 4th 19%
5. 5th 70%
6. 6th
7. 7th
8. 8th
9. 9th
10. 10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.67 PPG if we win out).