Kansas City Surf
ECNL Regional League Boys · Heartland BU13 · 10 teams · Kansas City Surf (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 31, 10:00 AM
Compass Minerals National Performance Center, WEST ↗ far trip
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 6–0 (expected goals 6.6 for, 0.9 against · 2.95 expected points)
| Season so far | Kansas City Surf | Kansas Rush |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 7-0-0 | 2-0-6 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 0.75 |
| Goals for / game | 6.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals against / game | 0.4 | 4.0 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W W | L L L W L |
| Biggest win | 10–1 at Union KC Soccer Club Red | 3–1 at Union KC Soccer Club Navy |
| Worst loss | — | 0–8 vs St. Louis Stars SC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +3.70 | -1.92 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.61 | -0.17 |
Common opponents: Missouri Rush — we 8–0; they 1–3. St. Louis Stars SC — we 2–1; they 0–8. Kansas City Athletics — we 6–0; they 4–3. FC Wichita — we 5–0; they 2–5. Union KC Soccer Club Navy — we 7–1; they 3–1. Union KC Soccer Club Red — we 10–1; they 1–6. Toca Fusion Elite — we 4–0; they 1–2.
Game plan
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They leak goals — be greedy
Kansas Rush concede 4.0/game; worst result 0–8 vs St. Louis Stars SC.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 98% chance; likely score 6–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
-
Confidence is low on their side
Kansas Rush have lost 3 straight (form: LWLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
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Away game
Kickoff 10:00 AM at Compass Minerals National Performance Center.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Kansas Rush game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Kansas City Surf – Kansas Rush) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.75 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Loss 2.63 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 6–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 94%
- 2nd 5%
- 3rd 1%
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
46 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link Kansas City Surf to Kansas Rush through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
14 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.30 · 9th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 31 10:00 AM |
Kansas Rush 8th · 2-0-6 · GD -20 |
Away far trip
Compass Minerals National Performance Center |
●○○○○ Favorable | 98% |
6–0 | 2.95 | 2.99 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 14 12:00 PM |
Southwest MO Rush 2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +21 |
Away far trip
Lake Country Soccer Complex North 1 |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
2–1 | 1.69 | 2.85 | Swing game |
| Sat Dec 5 TBD |
Union KC Soccer Club Navy 6th · 2-0-5 · GD -14 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 98% |
6–0 | 2.96 | 2.86 | Bank it |
| Sun Dec 6 TBD |
Union KC Soccer Club Red 7th · 2-0-5 · GD -21 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 99% |
7–0 | 2.98 | 2.87 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 27 TBD |
Toca Fusion Elite 3rd · 6-0-2 · GD +16 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
3–1 | 2.43 | 2.83 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Southwest MO Rush 2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +21 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
2–1 | 1.96 | 2.77 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
FC Wichita 9th · 1-1-5 · GD -28 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 100% |
8–0 | 2.99 | 2.78 | Bank it |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
Missouri Rush 4th · 6-0-2 · GD +8 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 79% |
3–1 | 2.49 | 2.76 | Bank it |
| Sun May 9 TBD |
St. Louis Stars SC 5th · 5-0-3 · GD +25 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
2–1 | 1.73 | 2.70 | Swing game |
| Sat May 22 TBD |
Kansas City Athletics 10th · 0-1-7 · GD -26 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 99% |
7–0 | 2.99 | 2.72 | Bank it |
| Sun May 23 TBD |
Kansas Rush 8th · 2-0-6 · GD -20 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 99% |
7–0 | 2.98 | 2.73 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas City Surf | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 42 | 3 | +39 | 21 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.61 | -0.30 | 100% | 1.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Kansas Rush · Sat Nov 14 at Southwest MO Rush · Sat Dec 5 vs Union KC Soccer Club Navy See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Southwest MO Rush | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 2 | +21 | 15 | 2.50 | WWWWL | -0.27 | -0.14 | 96% | 2.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Union KC Soccer Club Red · Sat Oct 31 vs Union KC Soccer Club Navy · Sat Nov 14 vs Kansas City Surf See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Toca Fusion Elite | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 27 | 11 | +16 | 18 | 2.25 | WWWWL | +0.06 | -0.38 | 88% | 3.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Kansas City Athletics · Sat Dec 5 vs Union KC Soccer Club Red · Sun Dec 6 vs Union KC Soccer Club Navy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Missouri Rush | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 15 | +8 | 18 | 2.25 | WWWWW | -0.51 | +0.16 | 32% | 4.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at St. Louis Stars SC · Sat Mar 6 vs St. Louis Stars SC · Sat Mar 13 vs Union KC Soccer Club Navy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | St. Louis Stars SC | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 31 | 6 | +25 | 15 | 1.88 | WLWWW | -0.51 | -0.14 | 83% | 3.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Missouri Rush · Sat Mar 6 at Missouri Rush · Sat Mar 13 vs Union KC Soccer Club Red See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Union KC Soccer Club Navy | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 25 | -14 | 6 | 0.86 | LLWLL | +0.32 | +0.10 | 0% | 6.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Wichita · Sat Oct 31 at Southwest MO Rush · Sat Dec 5 at Kansas City Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Union KC Soccer Club Red | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 31 | -21 | 6 | 0.86 | LWWLL | +0.40 | +0.15 | 0% | 7.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Southwest MO Rush · Sat Oct 31 at FC Wichita · Sat Dec 5 at Toca Fusion Elite See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Kansas Rush | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 32 | -20 | 6 | 0.75 | LWLLL | -0.17 | +0.57 | 0% | 7.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Kansas City Surf · Sat Mar 20 at FC Wichita · Sat Mar 27 at Kansas City Athletics See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | FC Wichita | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 34 | -28 | 4 | 0.57 | LLLLL | +1.01 | -0.06 | 0% | 8.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Union KC Soccer Club Navy · Sat Oct 31 vs Union KC Soccer Club Red · Sat Feb 27 at Southwest MO Rush See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Kansas City Athletics | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 32 | -26 | 1 | 0.13 | LLLLL | +0.14 | +0.40 | 0% | 9.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Toca Fusion Elite · Sun Mar 21 at FC Wichita · Sat Mar 27 vs Kansas Rush See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.59 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.