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Michigan Hawks

ECNL Girls · Midwest GU15 · 16 teams · Michigan Hawks (all teams)

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1st
9-1-0 record · 10 played
2.80 points per game
+31 goal diff · 35–4
WWWDWlast 5
100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.5
-0.23 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 01:15 PM

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Michigan Hawks
1st · 2.80 PPG
at

SLSG Creve Coeur Facility, Field 2 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–0 (expected goals 1.3 for, 1.0 against · 1.63 expected points)

Season so farMichigan HawksSt. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy
Position1st3rd
Record (W-D-L)9-1-08-2-1
Points per game2.802.36
Goals for / game3.51.9
Goals against / game0.40.5
Clean sheets78
Held scoreless02
Form (recent first)W D W W WW W W W W
Biggest win6–0 vs Michigan Hawks Magic6–0 at Chicago Inter
Worst loss—0–2 at Nationals SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+2.20+1.13
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.23-0.17

Common opponents: Chicago Inter — we 4–0; they 6–0. FC Wisconsin — we 4–0; they 3–0. Kansas City Athletics — we 4–0; they 2–0. Sporting Blue Valley — we 3–0; they 0–0. Gretna Elite Academy — we 2–1; they 2–0. Sporting Iowa — we 3–0; they 2–0. Eclipse Select Soccer Club — we 2–2; they 2–1. Rockford Raptors FC — we 4–1; they 2–2.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy score 1.9/game — well above the league's 1.3.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy concede only 0.5/game with 8 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 45% / draw 28% / loss 27%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • They arrive in form
    St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy have won 5 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 01:15 PM at SLSG Creve Coeur Facility.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Michigan Hawks – St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.82 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Win
2.82 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Draw
2.64 PPG
2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1
Loss
2.55 PPG
2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

60% finish 1st
100% top 4
0% below the top 4
1.5 average finish
  1. 1st 60%
  2. 2nd 34%
  3. 3rd 5%
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

77 chains · 12 teams

Paths of results that link Michigan Hawks to St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

57 favour us
2 even
18 favour them
+1.6 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–2 1–2 3–0 0–2 2–1 0–2 4–0 0–3 4–0 0–2 4–0 0–6 4–1 2–2 3–0 0–0 0–2 2–0 3–0 0–1 2–0 2–1 Michigan Hawks 1st Eclipse Select Socc… 5th Sporting Iowa 12th Gretna Elite Academy 6th FC Wisconsin 15th Kansas City Athleti… 9th Chicago Inter 14th Rockford Raptors FC 4th Sporting Blue Valley 11th Missouri Rush 7th Nationals SC 2nd St. Louis Scott Gal… 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

16 game days

1st 8th 16th Aug 29 Sep 6 Sep 19 Sep 27 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.14 · 6th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 31
01:15 PM
St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy
3rd · 8-2-1 · GD +16
Away far trip
SLSG Creve Coeur Facility
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
1–0 1.63 2.69 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
01:15 PM
St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green
8th · 4-2-5 · GD -9
Away far trip
SLSG Creve Coeur Facility
●○○○○ Favorable
90%
3–0 2.77 2.70 Bank it
Sat Dec 5
04:00 PM
MN Thunder Academy
16th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
St. Joe's Sports Dome
●○○○○ Favorable
85%
3–0 2.66 2.70 Bank it
Sat Dec 12
03:00 PM
Liverpool FC MI
13th · 1-4-6 · GD -15
Away far trip
UWM Sports Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
94%
3–0 2.86 2.71 Bank it
Sat Jan 16
02:00 PM
Nationals SC
2nd · 8-1-0 · GD +16
Home
St. Joe's Sports Dome
●●●●○ Tough
39%
0–0 1.48 2.63 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Michigan Hawks 10910 354+31 282.80 WWWDW -0.23 +0.14 100% 1.5
2 Nationals SC 9810 171+16 252.78 DWWWW -0.01 -0.20 100% 1.7
3 St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy 11821 215+16 262.36 WWWWW -0.17 +0.18 96% 3.1
4 Rockford Raptors FC 10712 1911+8 222.20 WWWWL +0.02 -0.11 62% 4.3
5 Eclipse Select Soccer Club 9513 199+10 161.78 WLLDW +0.28 -0.53 36% 4.8
6 Gretna Elite Academy 11533 209+11 181.64 WLDLW +0.02 -0.13 4% 5.9
7 Missouri Rush 12516 1016-6 161.33 WLWLW -0.15 +0.68 0% 9.2
8 St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green 11425 1322-9 141.27 LWWDL +0.05 -0.01 0% 9.0
9 Kansas City Athletics 12426 1917+2 141.17 WLDLW +0.10 -0.39 0% 8.6
10 Michigan Hawks Magic 11245 722-15 100.91 WLDLL -0.05 +0.46 0% 12.9
11 Sporting Blue Valley 10235 1014-4 90.90 LLDWL +0.13 -0.21 0% 10.7
12 Sporting Iowa 11236 918-9 90.82 LWLDL +0.13 -0.13 0% 12.0
13 Liverpool FC MI 11146 823-15 70.64 DLWLL -0.09 +0.48 0% 14.0
14 Chicago Inter 9117 621-15 40.44 LLLLW +0.16 -0.05 0% 14.5
15 FC Wisconsin 9018 021-21 10.11 LLLLL -0.14 +0.45 0% 16.0
16 MN Thunder Academy 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.00 ——

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.35 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.