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Eclipse Select Soccer Club

ECNL Girls · Midwest GU15 · 16 teams · Eclipse Select Soccer Club (all teams)

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5th
5-1-3 record · 9 played
1.78 points per game
+10 goal diff · 19–9
WLLDWlast 5
35% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.9
+0.28 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM

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Eclipse Select Soccer Club
5th · 1.78 PPG
at
Gretna Elite Academy
6th · 1.64 PPG

HyVee Multiplex, White 2 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.3 for, 1.4 against · 1.30 expected points)

Season so farEclipse Select Soccer ClubGretna Elite Academy
Position5th6th
Record (W-D-L)5-1-35-3-3
Points per game1.781.64
Goals for / game2.11.8
Goals against / game1.00.8
Clean sheets36
Held scoreless24
Form (recent first)W D L L WW L D L W
Biggest win5–1 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green5–0 vs FC Wisconsin
Worst loss0–2 vs Nationals SC0–2 at Nationals SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.92+0.73
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.28+0.02

Common opponents: Kansas City Athletics — we 2–1; they 2–2. St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy — we 1–2; they 0–2. St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green — we 5–1; they 4–0. Rockford Raptors FC — we 0–1; they 3–0. Nationals SC — we 0–2; they 0–2. Michigan Hawks — we 2–2; they 1–2. Michigan Hawks Magic — we 4–0; they 0–0.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–1 vs Rockford Raptors FC, 0–2 vs Nationals SC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 35%; a draw (26%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 12:00 PM at HyVee Multiplex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Gretna Elite Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Eclipse Select Soccer Club – Gretna Elite Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.70 PPG
5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds
Win
1.90 PPG
5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds
Draw
1.70 PPG
5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds
Loss
1.60 PPG
6th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 5th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
35% top 4
65% below the top 4
4.9 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd 7%
  4. 4th 29%
  5. 5th 42%
  6. 6th 19%
  7. 7th 4%
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 2.27 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Michigan Hawks 2.80 (+1.02) 1st (2.63) 26 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Nationals SC 2.78 (+1.00) 2nd (2.59) 26 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy 2.36 (+0.58) 3rd (2.27) 20 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Rockford Raptors FC 2.20 (+0.42) 4th (2.07) 17 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection

How the results connect

71 chains · 13 teams

Paths of results that link Eclipse Select Soccer Club to Gretna Elite Academy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

38 favour us
10 even
23 favour them
+0.6 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–2 2–0 5–1 0–4 2–2 2–1 1–2 2–0 2–1 2–2 4–0 0–0 0–1 0–3 4–1 3–1 0–0 4–0 1–4 3–1 0–1 2–0 0–1 Eclipse Select Socc… 5th Nationals SC 2nd St. Louis Scott Gal… 8th Michigan Hawks 1st St. Louis Scott Gal… 3rd Kansas City Athleti… 9th Michigan Hawks Magic 10th Rockford Raptors FC 4th Chicago Inter 14th Sporting Iowa 12th Liverpool FC MI 13th Missouri Rush 7th Gretna Elite Academy 6th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

16 game days

1st 8th 16th Aug 29 Sep 6 Sep 19 Sep 27 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.53 · 16th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
12:00 PM
Gretna Elite Academy
6th · 5-3-3 · GD +11
Away far trip
HyVee Multiplex
●●●●○ Tough
35%
1–1 1.30 1.73 Upside
Sun Oct 25
12:00 PM
Sporting Iowa
12th · 2-3-6 · GD -9
Away far trip
Hy-Vee Multiplex
●●○○○ Lean win
69%
2–0 2.25 1.78 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
11:00 AM
Liverpool FC MI
13th · 1-4-6 · GD -15
Away far trip
Avondale High School
●○○○○ Favorable
79%
2–0 2.52 1.84 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
01:00 PM
Missouri Rush
7th · 5-1-6 · GD -6
Away far trip
Missouri Rush Sports Park
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
1–0 2.10 1.86 Swing game
Wed Nov 11
07:00 PM
FC Wisconsin
15th · 0-1-8 · GD -21
Home
Oak Brook Park District · turf
●○○○○ Favorable
93%
3–0 2.85 1.93 Bank it
Sat Nov 21
02:00 PM
MN Thunder Academy
16th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
Oak Brook Park District · turf
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
2–0 2.10 1.94 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Michigan Hawks 10910 354+31 282.80 WWWDW -0.23 +0.14 100% 1.4
2 Nationals SC 9810 171+16 252.78 DWWWW -0.01 -0.20 100% 1.7
3 St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy 11821 215+16 262.36 WWWWW -0.17 +0.18 96% 3.1
4 Rockford Raptors FC 10712 1911+8 222.20 WWWWL +0.02 -0.11 62% 4.3
5 Eclipse Select Soccer Club 9513 199+10 161.78 WLLDW +0.28 -0.53 35% 4.9
6 Gretna Elite Academy 11533 209+11 181.64 WLDLW +0.02 -0.13 5% 5.9
7 Missouri Rush 12516 1016-6 161.33 WLWLW -0.15 +0.68 0% 9.1
8 St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green 11425 1322-9 141.27 LWWDL +0.05 -0.01 0% 9.0
9 Kansas City Athletics 12426 1917+2 141.17 WLDLW +0.10 -0.39 0% 8.6
10 Michigan Hawks Magic 11245 722-15 100.91 WLDLL -0.05 +0.46 0% 12.8
11 Sporting Blue Valley 10235 1014-4 90.90 LLDWL +0.13 -0.21 0% 10.7
12 Sporting Iowa 11236 918-9 90.82 LWLDL +0.13 -0.13 0% 12.0
13 Liverpool FC MI 11146 823-15 70.64 DLWLL -0.09 +0.48 0% 14.0
14 Chicago Inter 9117 621-15 40.44 LLLLW +0.16 -0.05 0% 14.4
15 FC Wisconsin 9018 021-21 10.11 LLLLL -0.14 +0.45 0% 16.0
16 MN Thunder Academy 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.00 ——

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.35 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.